SUNDAY, AUGUST 2 , 2020. THE WASHINGTON POST EZ EE G3
DANIEL HERTZBERG FOR THE WASHINGTON POSTbusiness of doing warnings for
everyone on the world,” Harrison
said. “That’s not a military func-
tion.”
To transfer that authority to the
Commerce Department, as the
Trump administration called for
two years ago, Congress would
have to allocate funds and give the
agency the authorization to do so.
SpaceX, however, is moving
quickly and says it could begin
offering Internet service from its
Starlink constellation in the
U nited States in Canada this year,
while “rapidly expanding to near
global coverage of the populated
world by 2021.”
In a discussion with reporters
late last year, Gwynne Shotwell,
SpaceX’s president and chief op-
erating officer, said that Starlink
will be able to serve remote areas
that fiber hasn’t reached.
“Does anyone like their Inter-
net?” she said. “Anyone? Anyone?
Nope. Anybody paying less than
like 80 bucks a month for crappy... service? No. Okay, there we go.
That’s why we’re going to be suc-
cessful.”
The company has said that it
has taken steps to ensure its new
satellites won’t exacerbate the de-
bris problem. The satellites are
outfitted with thrusters and can
“autonomously perform maneu-
vers to avoid collisions with space
debris and other spacecraft,” the
company said. “This capability re-
duces human error, allowing for a
more reliable approach to colli-
sion avoidance.”
At the end of their lives, the
satellites would take themselves
out of orbit and burn up in the
atmosphere. And if those propul-
sion systems don’t work, they’ll
automatically fall out of orbit
within one to five years, the com-
pany said, significantly faster
than the 25 years allowed now.
[email protected]
committee this year.
Catastrophic collisions could
occur between every five to seven
years, he said.
The first-ever satellite crash
happened in 2009, when a dead
Russian satellite collided with a
communications satellite operat-
ed by Iridium, creating almost
2,000 pieces of debris at least four
inches in diameter and thousands
more smaller pieces. Much of the
debris will remain in orbit for
years to come, each a threat to
other spacecraft.
This year, two dead satellites
nearly collided. If they had, it
would have created yet another
field of debris that could have
threatened other satellites. And
with more satellites being
launched, the chance of more
close calls and collisions will only
rise.
“We’re going to see an even
steeper exponential growth in the
number of close calls,” said Todd
Harrison, an aerospace analyst at
the Center for Strategic and Inter-
national Studies. “We cannot af-
ford to have more collisions be-
cause it produces long-lasting de-
bris that ultimately could limit
our ability to use this part of
space. It could have far-reaching
economic consequences as well as
strategic consequences if we
screw up that area of space we use
for security.”
One of the reasons the Trump
administration moved so aggres-
sively to form the Space Force, the
newest branch of the military, was
to defend U.S. assets in space,
which are used for reconnais-
sance, guiding precision muni-
tions and communications. But
the Space Force doesn’t want to be
in the business of warning compa-
nies and governments every time
one of their satellites comes un-
comfortably close to another.
“They don’t want to be in thedisposed of at the end of their
missions, as well as make up-
grades to design that would help
avoid collisions.
While the rule updates are a
good step forward, “there is still
more we need to do,” FCC Com-
missioner Jessica Rosenworcel
said in April. The commission
considered tightening a rule that
allows a satellite to stay in orbit
for up to 25 years after its mission
ends, a time frame that many
think is far too long. But ultimate-
ly, the commission did not make
any changes.“This rule simply does not
make sense in today’s orbital envi-
ronment,” Rosenworcel said.
Debris begets more debris, and
collisions, officials say, are inevi-
table and can inflict serious dam-
age. In orbit, objects travel at im-
mense speed — the International
Space Station, for example, whiz-
zes around Earth at 17,500 mph.
So even something the size of a
peanut can do tremendous harm.
In one of the most congested
areas, about 430 to 560 miles
high, “there is enough human-
generated orbital debris... t o
create more debris even if no new
satellites were launched,”
Weeden told a congressionaloperators in the world, officials
said, with more satellites in space
than even China.
Companies need to demon-
strate that their individual satel-
lites won’t cause collisions to win
FCC approval, Weeden said, but
some experts want additional reg-
ulations that would extend to the
constellations as a whole.
Amazon, meanwhile, also has
plans to deploy a large constella-
tion as part of a program it calls
Kuiper. The FCC on Thursday ap-
proved Amazon’s plan to put up
3,236 satellites, and the company
said it would invest $10 billion in
the effort. (Amazon founder and
chief executive Jeff Bezos owns
The Washington Post.)
“A project of this scale requires
significant effort and resources,
and, due to the nature of LEO
constellations, it is not the kind of
initiative that can start small,”
Amazon said in a statement. “You
have to commit.”
Another company, OneWeb, in-
tends to launch hundreds of satel-
lites for broadband service, de-
spite a bankruptcy filing that led
to its acquisition by the British
government and an Indian com-
pany.
With all that activity, analysts
say the U.S. government needs to
move fast if it is going to be able to
keep up and establish policies for
the rest of the world to follow.
“A collision between two satel-
lites could have a catastrophic
impact on the space environment
for centuries to come,” FCC chair-
man Ajit Pai said recently.
In April, the FCC, which over
the past year has approved some
13,000 new satellites for launch,
updated its rules governing orbit-
al debris for the first time since- Satellite applicants must
now provide numerical values for
the risk of collision and demon-
strate how their satellites will be
launched into orbit, up from the
few thousand in operation today,
according to Analytical Graphics
Inc., or AGI, a company based
outside Philadelphia that builds
software to track spacecraft and
debris in space. That’s in addition
to the junk floating around there.
The Pentagon tracks about 22,000
pieces of debris larger than about
four inches, but scientists say
there are nearly 1 million larger
than half an inch.
AGI estimates that over the
next 10 years, there could be as
many as 404 collisions and 17 mil-
lion close calls in the most con-
gested orbits. Tracking all those
objects and issuing warnings is
too much for the Pentagon to
handle — and outside its primary
task of defending the nation. A
civilian agency could be more ad-
ept in keeping up with the de-
mand and better at communicat-
ing with private companies as
well as foreign governments,
some experts believe, though the
Pentagon would continue to mon-
itor space activity.
“It’s easier for the Department
of Commerce to leverage commer-
cial or other modern technology
than it is for the Pentagon,”
Weeden said. He called the Penta-
gon’s current tracking system “an-
tiquated.”
“It was a great system 30 years
ago, and it did the job it was
designed to do,” Paul Graziani,
AGI’s CEO, said in an interview.
“However, the problem has
moved on over the decades to be a
much more difficult problem than
the system was designed to han-
dle.”
SpaceX has won approval from
the Federal Communications
Commission to put 12,000 small
satellites into orbit as part of its
Starlink Internet constellation.
Already it has launched 540, mak-
ing it one of the largest satellitehowever, that the responsibility
should go to the Federal Aviation
Administration instead, extend-
ing that agency’s jurisdiction
from the skies to space.
The impasse has left the Penta-
gon with tracking space debris and
satellites as well as warning gov-
ernments and private companies
around the world of potential colli-
sion, as it has done years. It’s a job it
doesn’t want — and that the White
House doesn’t want it to have.
It’s not clear when, or if, the
logjam will break.
A spokesman for the National
Space Council said fully finding
the Office of Space Commerce “re-
mains a top priority” to “address
the emerging growth of large con-
stellations in low Earth orbit and
lay the foundation for manage-
ment of future space traffic.”
Others are less optimistic that
such an office will be established.
“The odds of getting legislation
introduced this year, in an elec-
tion year, on a topic of low politi-
cal priority, were slim to begin
with,” said Brian Weeden, director
of program planning at the Secure
World Foundation, a think tank.
“And then we had a pandemic.”
As the debate drags on, the
number of satellites being
launched to orbit continues to
grow dramatically, raising the pos-
sibility of more collisions and
more debris that in turn would
threaten other satellites that are
used for missile warnings, GPS,
television, communications and
more.
At least four companies are
moving ahead with plans to put
up constellations of thousands of
satellites that would beam the
Internet to the estimated 4 billion
people without access to broad-
band. Over the next 10 years, more
than 50,000 satellites could be
SATELLITES FROM G1
U.S. e≠ort to be tra∞c cop in space mired in infighting
“A collision between
two satellites could
have a catastrophic
impact on the space
environment for
centuries to come.”
Federal Communications
Commission Chairman Ajit PaiBY ABHA BHATTARAIAlexa Muñoz’s time in quaran-
tine sparked an epiphany: She
hates jeans.
She has dozens of pairs —
skinny, high-waisted, ripped —
but after months of soft fabrics
and elastic waistbands, she’s
swearing off denim for good.
“I haven’t worn a single pair of
jeans since the pandemic start-
ed,” said Muñoz, 46, a translator
in Manhattan. “They’re looking at
me sadly from the closet, but it’s
like, ‘You know what? I’m not
wearing those anymore.’ Why was
I punishing myself?”
Once the ultimate in comfort
and casual wear, jeans have been
usurped by more comfortable —
and stretchier — options. White-
collar workers who are logging in
from home say they’re increasing-
ly reaching for basketball shorts
and yoga pants to pair with more
professional-looking tops for vid-
eo calls.
Jeans sales have been sluggish
for five years, but the pandemic
has taken a real toll. True Reli-
gion, Lucky Brand and G-Star
RAW have all declared bank -
ruptcy since April, w hile the par-
ent company of Joe’s Jeans and
Hudson Jeans filed for Chapter 11
protection in May. Levi’s this
month posted a 62 percent drop
in second-quarter revenue and
announced plans to cut 700, or
15 percent, of its corporate work-
force.
“People just aren’t wearing
jeans right now,” said Tiffany Ho-
gan, an apparel analyst for Kan-
tar. “They’re living in comfort as
much as they can, which is accel-
erating a trend we were already
seeing.”
Meanwhile, “athleisure” retail-
ers like Lululemon are g etting a
lift from leggings and joggers
sales for m en and women even as
overall receipts fell 17 percent last
quarter. Gap, which owns Athle-
ta, is reporting an uptick in sales
of joggers, leggings and men’s
sweatpants.
Apparel sales have dropped
nearly 40 percent this year, Com-merce Department data show, as
consumers pull back in just about
every category of spending.
Roughly 30 million Americans
are collecting unemployment
benefits, according to the data
released last week by the Labor
Department, and countless oth-
ers say they’re worried about the
recession’s long-term effect on
their personal finances.
“Consumers are certainly more
conscious about how they spend
their money,” said Wendy Lieb-
mann, chief executive of New
York consultancy WSL Strategic
Retail. “Even if they are managing
at the moment, people are look-
ing at their closets and saying,
‘How much more do I really
need?’ ”
Plus, she said, with many
stores and fitting rooms still
closed, it’s easier to buy a pair of
sweatpants online than it is to
gauge the size, fit and feel of a pair
of jeans.
Denim sales have fallen by dou-
ble digits in the past three
months compared with the sameperiod last year, according to
market research firm NPD
Group. Last year, Americans
spent about $17 billion on jeans,
or 5 percent less than the nearly
$18 billion spent in 2014, accord-
ing to data from Euromonitor
International. Sales of “super pre-
mium” jeans — brands like 7 for
All Mankind, True Religion, Joe’s
Jeans and Hudson, which can
cost upward of $200 a pair — slid
more than 40 percent during that
period, as Americans traded
down to lower-priced denim and
athletic wear.
“Casual is really what’s win-
ning right now,” said Maria Rugo-
lo, an analyst for NPD Group.
“Activewear is becoming more
acceptable and if customers are
looking to extend their wardrobe,
they’re more likely to buy some-
thing with multiple uses, that
they can wear for work, leisure
and working out.”
Recent bankruptcy filings by
the companies behind Brooks
Brothers and Ann Taylor are an
extension of that trend, analystssay, as Americans turn to less
structured clothing for both work
and relaxation.
In Sherman Oaks, Calif., Rocío
Rodríguez says she’s wondering
why she didn’t do away with jeans
sooner. She has spent the past
several months in pajamas and a
fluffy purple robe. When she has
to take a video call for work, she
keeps the camera off, she says, “so
I can look horrible in peace.”
“Jeans are cardiovascular pris-
ons,” said Rodríguez, 28, an oper-
ations manager for a salon and
medical spa. “As much as I like the
look, I don’t find myself waking
up everyday thinking, ‘Wow, I
can’t wait to put on my jeans.’ ”
Matt Nicholson used to wear
jeans almost every day to his job
in midtown Manhattan. But since
he began working remotely in
mid-March, he has been relying
on a rotation of sweatshorts to
keep him going.
“My jeans are rolled up on top
of my hamper from 100 days ago,”
the 33-year-old said. “And now I
don’t want to try them on becauseGod knows they probably don’t
fit.”
He didn’t reach for them, he
says, even when his laundromat
closed for a month at the begin-
ning of the pandemic, leaving
him with few clean options.
“It got a little dire,” said Nichol-
son, a social media director for
actor George Takei. “But we just
wore our bathing suits instead.”
Nicholson says he has always
found jeans uncomfortable and
restrictive but kept about a d ozen
pairs from Levi’s and D iesel in his
rotation because they looked
good. Now, he says, his sartorial
concerns have fallen by the way-
side. Instead, he cycles through
nine pairs of sweatshorts in dif-
ferent colors that he bought on
Amazon. (Amazon’s founder and
chief executive, Jeff Bezos, owns
The Washington Post.)
“I’ve given up a little bit in the
style department but at least I’ve
got flashy masks,” he said. “This is
a real moment to address our
comfort. It’s time to free the leg.”
[email protected]Goodbye, jeans. The pandemic is ushering in an era of comfortable clothes.