The Times - UK (2020-08-01)

10 2GM Saturday August 1 2020 | the times

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Shortly after 6.30pm on Thursday
Boris Johnson brought together key
ministers and advisers for an unsched-
uled meeting.
The night before, the prime minister
had been alerted to confidential early
figures from the Office for National
Statistics showing an apparent rise in
Covid-19 infections across the country.
Alarming numbers were coming in
from the new biosecurity centre show-
ing multiple towns around Manchester
experiencing increases in infection.
The next morning, before setting a
planned visit to North Yorkshire, Mr
Johnson called together officials from
the Cabinet Office and health depart-
ment and told them to draw up a formal
list of options and gather key ministers
for his return. He had always known
that it was likely that he would have to
scale back some of his planned lock-
down easing — he just didn’t expect it
to happen so soon.
“We all thought we’d get a summer
and we were braced for a challenging
autumn and winter,” one senior official
said. “All the predictions were around a
resurgence in October.”
That evening, when he returned to
Downing Street, Rishi Sunak, the chan-
cellor, and Michael Gove, the Cabinet
Office minister, were waiting in the
cabinet room. Sir Patrick Vallance, the
chief scientific adviser, joined on Zoom
while Matt Hancock, the health secre-
tary, and Chris Whitty, the chief medi-
cal officer for England, walked across
Whitehall from a “gold” command
meeting of local leaders discussing the
issues in the northwest.
Among the options were the potent-
ial reversal of lockdown easements an-
nounced last month, or the national or
regional suspension of new measures
due to come in today. Mr Sunak made
clear that they should try to avoid
measures that were not justified by the
epidemiology and that could damage
the fragile recovery. Others suggested
that only regions experiencing increas-
es such as that in the northwest should
have the latest easements cancelled.
In the end it was Mr Hancock’s inter-
vention that was decisive, arguing for a
stricter lockdown in the northwest
while suspending all the measures due
to come into effect nationwide.
As Mr Johnson put it at a press con-
ference: “With those numbers creeping
up our assessment is that we should
now squeeze that brake pedal in order
to keep the virus under control.”
The bleak announcement, particu-
larly for people in the northwest, was a
far cry from a couple of weeks ago,
when the prime minister had been
infuriated that people did not seem to
be taking advantage of lockdown ease-
ments to stimulate the economy.
As he drove around central London
the view from the back window of his
armoured Jaguar was of near deserted
streets. In meetings Mr Johnson made
his frustrations clear. He pushed
through the controversial “get back to
work” message against the concerns of
some of his advisers. “He is absolutely
possessed by it,” one senior figure said.
“He’s been driving around the city and
has been shocked by how empty it is.
‘No one is around,’ he keeps saying.
‘Why? They’re allowed to be.’ ”
But if this Monday was due to be the
day for companies to start bringing staff
back to offices, the events of the past
week have shown how the government

is being pulled in two directions —

forced to tack first towards the eco-

nomy then towards suppressing the

epidemic as data showing the danger-

ous state of each keep emerging.

On Monday Mr Johnson and senior

ministers met Sir Patrick and other ad-

visers at a “dashboard” meeting in

Downing Street. They were shown evi-

dence of ten new cases of coronavirus

in Britain, which appeared to be linked

directly to the outbreak in Spain.

For Sir Patrick and the ministers

present, the “seeding” of cases from

abroad was familiar. Before the pan-

demic 1,300 people with coronavirus

made their way to the UK undetected, at

a time when No 10 was arguing that bor-

der controls would not work. Sir Patrick

emphasised the two to three-week lag

between the spread of the virus in

Europe and its arrival in the UK before

the lockdown was put in place.

“The subtext was clear,” one source

said. “Sir Patrick was suggesting that we

could be two to three weeks behind

Spain if we did not take action.”

The meeting also discussed early

numbers from the northwest. Baroness

Harding of Winscombe, head of the

test-and-trace programme, told

ministers that in the hotspots the virus

was being spread between households.

The rise was not, she said, because of

mass gatherings or pubs and shops.

Instead people were ignoring, or failing

to understand, the social-distancing

guidelines in areas of “high-density”

housing.

Lady Harding fears that people are

defining a household as extended

family and visiting aunts, uncles, nieces

and nephews who live near by. “The

virus is being spread from house to

house,” a source said.

This was a particular issue in Leices-

ter, Oldham, Blackburn and Bradford.

That evidence led to the decision to ban

gatherings of different families indoors.

Looking ahead the greatest concern

is London. If workers and businesses

heed Mr Johnson’s call to go back into

offices that will lead to an increase in

the use of trains and public transport.

The track-and-trace system cannot

identify unknown contacts. If a case is

picked up in someone who went to a bar,

other customers and staff can be asked

to self-isolate. But if that person gets on

to a Tube train to go to work the virus is

seeded with no one any the wiser. The

Covid-19 tracking app was meant to

address this weakness but is not ready to

go. Senior figures are not talking of it as

the “cherry on the cake” any more.

The dilemma is how you to keep the

virus under control without doing even

more damage to the economy.

There is a hope that the track-and-

trace system can be used to target

interventions more precisely rather

than impose wider lockdowns. The

Greater Manchester intervention will

be a test to see if this works.

Leading article, page 29

Race against time to arrest

spread at family gatherings

Oliver Wright, Steven Swinford
Chris Smyth

Tension was mounting in areas

dragged into the lockdown zone

despite having low rates of

transmission.

In Rossendale, Lancashire, rates

were 5.6 per 100,000 people, which

is lower than the national average.

“They have made the wrong call,”

said Alyson Barnes, leader of

Rossendale borough council. “At this

stage in the pandemic we ought to

be a bit more nuanced in our

approach and more prepared to let

areas self-manage, rather than

government stepping in and hitting

everything with a big broad brush.”

The Hop Micro Pub in Rossendale

was empty, with only three tables

taken outside. Michelle Morris, the

landlady, said: “They have basically

written off the north of England.”

Even before the guidance was

introduced, the pub’s takings were

half their normal levels, she said.

“Today we’ve had the best weather

ever, we’ve got a big beer garden and

there is no one in it.

“I’ve got extra staff on because I

was looking at the weather. There is

nobody to serve.”

Wigan has a rate of 6.1 per

100,000 people. In a letter to Matt

Hancock, the health secretary,

Yvonne Fovargue, MP for

Makerfield, asking for an

explanation as to why Wigan was

included, rather than a more

localised lockdown of areas affected.

Wigan council’s director of public

health backed the borough’s

inclusion, however. Professor Kate

Ardern said: “Viruses do not stop at

boundaries and we are next to a

number of boroughs with higher

community transmission rates.”

Bury also has relatively low

infections, 9.5 cases per 100,

people, only slightly higher than the

national average. Andy Burnham,

the mayor of Manchester, supported

the decision to introduce measures

widely. “We’re all interconnected

and I don’t think it’s helpful to do it

on a borough-by-borough basis,” he

said. “You’ve got to look at the

overall picture.”

Blackburn with Darwen has the

highest infection rate in the UK, at

78.6 cases per 100,000 people.

‘They have

basically

written off

the north’

Charlotte Wace

Hotspots

Weekly rate of Covid-19 cases

per 100,000 population

Manchester

Leicester

Bradford

Areas affected

by restrictions

End of July

Bradford

47.8 cases

Manchester* 20.

Kirklees 21.

Calderdale

23.

Blackburn with

Darwen 78.

Trafford 32.

Salford* 19

Oldham 51.

Leicester 64.

Sandwell 28.

Northampton

20.

Rochdale 39.

Northwest and

West Yorkshire

800

600

400

200

0

March April May June July

Greater

Manchester

Cases in the North West

Weekly average

June 15

Shops allowed

to reopen

July 4

Pubs restaurants,

hairdressers, and

two households

can meet

Source: Public Health England

*Area included on the watchlist because it is part of a region in which overall

infection rates are high, with household transmission a key infection pathway

Hyndburn 40.

Pendle 38.

Bolton* 88.

Burnley* 18.

Tameside*

Stockport* 14.1 40.

Bury* 9.

Wigan* 6.

Rossendale*

5.

Oadby and Wigston 35.

Luton 20.

Eden 28.

Peterborough 19.

Rotherham 12.

Wakefield 13.

The prime minister was accused of

discriminating against Muslims yester-

day as the rushed imposition of a north-

ern lockdown provoked anger and

resentment in affected communities.

The restrictions, announced less

than three hours before the start of Eid

al-Adha, banned people from visiting

others at home.

Several Islamic organisations urged

Muslims to observe the new rules but

the measures attracted criticism in

towns and cities across Great Man-

chester, east Lancashire and parts of

West Yorkshire.

Boris Johnson was called “the Grinch

who stole Eid” and his government was

accused of targeting the festival. It was

argued that such an announcement

late on Christmas Eve would be incon-

ceivable.

Others saw injustice in allowing

people to go to pubs while preventing

others from visiting relatives. Harun

Khan, general secretary of the Muslim

PM is the

Andrew Norfolk, Charlotte Wace

Kaya Burgess Religious Correspondent

Prayers at Bradford’s Central Mosque

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