10
◼ REMARKS Bloomberg Businessweek August 3, 2020referringtothePeople’sLiberationArmy.“Consequently,
theUnitedStateswouldonlyneedtotipthescalesofthebat-
tletofoila Chineseinvasion.”
Anymilitaryactionwouldbecatastrophicfortheglobal
economyinonecrucialregard:Taiwanhasmorethan20%
oftheworld’smicrochip production,including Taiwan
SemiconductorManufacturingCorp.,whichbrieflybecame
the10thmostvaluablecompanyintheworldonJuly 24 fol-
lowingreportsspeculatingthatIntelCorp.,thelargestU.S.
chipmaker,mightoutsourceitsproductiontothecompany.
TSMCis basedinHsinchu,lessthan 100 milesfromChina’s
coast.A suddendisruptionofthesupplychainwouldresound
everywhere,includingthePeople’sRepublic.
Evenif it tookovertheisland,Beijingwouldfacea hostile
population.WhileChinalongusedeconomicincentivesto
winheartsandminds,it cutoffdirectcontactafterthe 2016
electionofPresidentTsaiIng-wen,whoviewstheislandas
a defactoindependentnationthatneedsincreasedinter-
nationalrecognition.China’ssuppressionofHongKong
onlyboostedsupportforTsai,whoeasilywonreelectionin
January.Xi’sproposaltouseHongKong’s“onecountry,two
systems”modelforunificationissounpopularinTaiwan
thateventheKuomintang,themainChina-friendlyopposi-
tionpartyandtherumporganizationoftheNationalistswho
fledMao,hasrejectedit.
Thedifficultiesofunifyingunderthatsystemweremade
evidentinJuly.AfterChinaimposedthenationalsecuritylaw
inHongKong,thegovernmenttriedtoforceseniorTaiwanese
officialsattheTaipeiEconomicandCulturalOfficetosigna
“oneChina”pledgethatrecognizesBeijing’ssovereigntyover
theisland.TheofficialsrefusedandreturnedtoTaiwan,and
it’suncertainwhethertheofficewillstayopen.Converted
froma travelagencysetupinthe1960sunderBritishrule,the
officehadcometoreflectthekinshipbetweentwobastions
ofdemocracy-lovingChinesepeopleonterritoryclaimedby
Beijing.WhereasHongKongonceprovidedrefugeformore
thana millionpeopleseekingtoescapethemainland,Taiwan
is nowbecominga destinationforpro-democracyprotesters
inthecity.“Inthepast,HongKongwasnotonlya bufferfor
cross-straitrelations,it wasa windowforglobalcountriesto
engageandinteractwithChina,”saysLinFei-fan,thedep-
utysecretary-general of Tsai’s ruling Democratic Progressive
Party. “And Taiwan will be at the front line of China’s pres-
sure now that Hong Kong is no longer a buffer.”
Lin says Taiwanese officials are monitoring Xi’s statements
closely, so as not to be caught unprepared if he takes any
action to distract from a slowing economy in China. They also
expect Beijing to further isolate Taiwan from its remaining
diplomatic allies, block its officials from joining global bod-
ies, step up cyberattacks and spying operations, and continue
military drills near the island in the air and at sea.
Still, an invasion remains unlikely. At an annual legislative
meeting in May, China’s premier, Li Keqiang, called Taiwan’s
people “brothers and sisters” and said leaders would “do
our very utmost to promote peaceful reunification of China.”And in July, a spokesman for China’s defense ministry put the
blame on the U.S. for the increased tensions, saying its lead-
ers frequently play the “Taiwan card” and want to undermine
China’s sovereignty by “salami slicing.”
While China is Taiwan’s largest trading partner, Tsai has
sought to take advantage of Trump’s trade war to reduce the
island’s dependence on Beijing. Her “Invest Taiwan” initia-
tive attracted more than $36 billion worth of pledges with
incentivestopersuadebusinessestobringoperationsback
homefromthemainland.Despitea lower 2020 grossdomes-
ticproductforecastof1.67%becauseoftheCovid-19 pan-
demic, Taiwan is set to be the only developed economy in
the world to see growth this year.
Taiwan’s response to the coronavirus has also boosted
its international standing. The island’s quick reaction and
warningtotheworldpromptedtheU.S.anditsalliestopush
forTaiwan’sinclusionintheWorldHealthAssembly,the
decision-making section of the World Health Organization—a
move Beijing continues to oppose despite the pandemic. (The
Trump administration has announced the U.S. withdrawal
from the WHO effective July 2021.)
In the U.S. the rhetoric over Communist designs on the
island has ramped up. After the State Department abruptly
booted China from Houston on July 23, GOP Texas Senator
Ted Cruz tweeted that “the city now has a consulate for the
free Republic of China (Taiwan) and no consulate for the
tyrannical People’s Republic of China ... as it should be.” That
evocation of the “two China” policy hails Taipei as a viable
democratic alternative to Beijing. It also raises the issue of a
formal declaration of Taiwan’s independence, a red line for
the mainland that would likely trigger an invasion.
“The U.S. is desperately using the Taiwan issue to put
pressure on the Chinese government, while some in Taiwan
hope to use the opportunity to promote independence,”
says Liu Guoshen, director of the Collaborative Innovation
Center for Peaceful Development of Cross-Strait Relations,
based in Fujian, the province directly across from Taiwan.
“Given this situation, Beijing must prepare for the worst.”
He adds that “if the United States holds no bottom line in
using the Taiwan issue to carry out provocation, China will
respond appropriately in its own way and at its own pace.”
Liu says “Beijing has been the biggest defender of the sta-
tus quo, and the Chinese government has not given up the
goal of peaceful reunification.”
China’s idea of status quo doesn’t seem all that stable
in the eyes of Taiwanese officials, however. They take a
quick look around the neighborhood and see good reason
for worry: China recently surprised India with the deadli-
est border clash in decades around the same time that it
clamped down on Hong Kong. “China has moved toward
Hong Kong first and Taiwan’s next,” says Tung Li-wen, a con-
sultant for Taiwan’s Mainland Affairs Council, which over-
sees the island’s relations with Beijing. “But China’s ambition
is not only Taiwan. It’s all of Asia—and the whole world.” <BW>
�With assistance from Jing Li and Lucille Liu