Bloomberg Businessweek - USA (2020-08-03)

 ECONOMICS Bloomberg Businessweek August 3, 2020

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many as 7 million unintended pregnanciesinjust

half a year, according to an April estimate by the

United Nations Population Fund.

Planned Parenthood Federation of America

Inc. has seen an increase in demand for abortion

pills, according to Dr. Gillian Dean, senior director

of medical services. She says several women have

come to her for help to end “pregnancies that they

would have wanted to continue were it not for the

economic fallout of the pandemic.”

With almost 18 million Americans out of work

as of June, it’s no wonder many couples might not

be in the mood for procreating. Demographer

Sergio DellaPergola has documenteda tightsta-

tistical correlation betweenoptimismandfer-

tility in Israeli society. TheBloombergU S

National Economy Expecta

Diffusion Index, which gaugesc

sumers’ economic outlook, cras

below 30 in April and Mayfr

57 in February, recoveringto

in July.

Not everyone will wringthei

at the thought of all those miss

dren. Some environmentalis

may view the U.S. birth dearth

as good for the planet. Each

American consumer is responsib

times the amount of greenhousegasemissionsas

a Chinese consumer, accordingtoa 2019 reportby

the United Nations Environment Program. A 2017

study from Sweden’s Lund University published

in Environmental Research Letters found that hav-

ing fewer children is the best thing that people in

rich countries could do for the planet—far more

effective than buying an electric car or refraining

from air travel.

On the other hand, each child who’s wanted but

not born is some family’s quiet tragedy. Surveys

“Every time that people decide to push back

when they’re going to have their first kid or their

next kid, some proportion will end up not hav-

ing the child at all,” says Karen Guzzo, a sociol-

ogy professor at Bowling Green State University

and acting director of the Center for Family and

Demographic Research. For couples who are

already parents, says Guzzo, “the longer you wait

to have your second or third child, the harder it is

to, say, ‘Oh, I’m ready to have babies again.’ They

say, ‘You know what? My family’s complete, I’m

happy with what I have.’ ”

In the second half of the 20th century, the

pattern in the U.S. and elsewhere was that fer-

tility tended to fall during recessions and then

bounce back when the economy recovered.

Demographers expected that to happen after the

2007-09 recession, which at the time had been the

deepest since the Depression. “People put off hav-

ing children during the economic downturn and

then catch up on fertility once economic condi-

tions improve,” Pew Research Center wrote in an

October 2011 report.

But the pattern broke. The post-recession

rebound never came even as the U.S. economy

staged the longest expansion on record. Birthrates

for women in their 20s, which had dropped 25%

or more during and shortly after the recession,

kept falling, and they stayed flat for women in

their 30s. “Had prerecessionary fertility patterns

been sustained through 2019, there would have

been 6.6 million more births, and nearly 3 million

more women would have had their first child over

the last 11 years,” says Kenneth Johnson, a sociol-

ogist and demographer at the University of New

Hampshire’s Carsey School of Public Policy.

Early indicators point to the birthrate mov-

ing down another notch in this recession. The

Wedding Report Inc. says its surveys show that

slightly over 60% of weddings scheduled for 2020

have been postponed until later this year or 2021.

That’s bound to delay some couples from start-

ing a family.

Also, when the pandemic broke out, birth con-

trol providers reported an increase in sales from

people stocking up in case of shortages. Some

sources have also seen a bump in demand for

long-lasting forms of birth control. The Pill Club

Holdings Inc. logged a 65% increase in June in

new patient requests for Annovera, a vaginal ring

that prevents pregnancy for up to a year. In the

U.S., contraception has generally been available

to those who need it, in contrast to the situation

in poor and middle-income countries where dis-

ruptions in access to birth control may result in as

Putting Off Babies

1940 2018

250

125

0

Birthsper1,000women,byageofmother

15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49

DATA: NATIONAL CENTER FOR HEALTH STATISTICS

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