The Economist - USA (2020-08-01)

22 United States The EconomistAugust 1st 2020

T

he deathof George Floyd under the

knee of a Minneapolis police officer on

May 25th has sparked large anti-racist prot-

ests in cities across America. “Defund the

police”, a call to reallocate some of the

money spent on law enforcement to other

services, is becoming a mainstream slogan

on the left. President Donald Trump claims

that the “anti-police crusade...has led to a

“shocking explosion of shootings, killings,

murders and heinous crimes of violence.”

On July 22nd he announced he would send

a surge of federal agents to police big cities,

including Chicago and Albuquerque (al-

though those that had been deployed in

Portland, Oregon, are starting to leave.)

But the evidence that America is experi-

encing a major crime wave is mixed at best.

Official national crime statistics, compiled

by the fbi, are generally published with

over a year’s delay, so researchers have to

turn to other sources. David Abrams of the

University of Pennsylvania, pulls together

data from some two dozen major cities on

citycrimestats.com. His figures show that

so far this year crime is actually down by

around 10% compared with the same per-

iod in 2015-19 (see chart).

It is possible that this drop is simply an

artefact of reporting. Covid-19 has meant

fewer people on the streets, hence fewer

potential witnesses who might call the po-

lice. However, Mr Abrams notes that the

share of police stops which have resulted

in arrests has not changed, which suggests

that the drop in crime is genuine. It seems

even drug dealers have been adhering to

social-distancing guidelines.

There are some exceptions to this de-

cline. Non-residential burglaries spiked in

early June, coinciding with the peak of the

George Floyd protests, when looting of re-

tail stores was common. Domestic vio-

lence has also probably increased. Data are

sparse because only a small fraction of vic-

tims report being abused, and because po-

lice departments can be slow to share what

numbers they do have. Research by Emily

Leslie and Riley Wilson of Brigham Young

University finds that calls related to do-

mestic violence in March to May rose by an

average of 7.5% in 14 cities compared with

the same period in the previous year.

Alarmingly, murder also seems to be on

the rise. So far this year, homicides in big

cities appear to be up by around 20%

against the average for the same period in

2015-19. Interpreting these numbers is

tricky,sincemurderratescan vary a lot

from year to year. An Economist analysis of

fbistatistics finds that the total number of

homicides in big cities fluctuated from

year to year by an average of roughly 20%

between 1990 and 2018. Murders in Chicago

this year may be up by 51% through July

20th, compared with the same period in

2019, but by only 9% on 2017. Except in a

handful of the cities in Mr Abrams’s data

set, homicide rates did not change much

relative to prior years after government

shutdown orders were put in place.

One city which has seen a marked in-

crease in violence in recent weeks is New

York. Chris Herrmann of the John Jay Col-

lege of Criminal Justice, a former analyst

with the New York Police Department

(nypd), says this may be partly because

many police officers who would normally

patrol the outer boroughs have been redi-

rected to Manhattan, where many of the

protests are occurring. He also notes that

covid-19 has forced jails and prisons to re-

lease inmates, including many convicted

of, or awaiting trial for, violent offences.

The police usually benefit from a natu-

ral dividend in the autumn. Homicide rates

tend to fall in September as the weather

cools and teenagers head back to class-

rooms. But Mr Herrmann fears the country

might not be as lucky this year. Many

schools are unlikely to reopen. Courts have

been shuttered, making it harder for prose-

cutors to stop gang violence. Michael LiPe-

tri, chief of crime-control strategies at the

nypd, says the share of shootings involv-

ing gang members in his city has more than

doubled since last year. And, as Jens Lud-

wig, director of the University of Chicago

Crime Lab, points out, America’s covid-in-

duced recession will take a serious toll on

city finances, putting further pressure on

the budgets of police departments.

Drastically cutting police funding with-

out adequately investing in other areas,

such as social work, would be risky. A re-

cent working paper by Tanaya Devi and Ro-

land Fryer, both economists at Harvard

University, analysed the impact of state

and federal investigations into police de-

partments. It found that, though most

probes had a small positive impact in re-

ducing crime, “viral” ones prompted by na-

tional scrutiny appear to cause the police to

retreat too far. When Freddie Gray was

killed by the Baltimore police in 2015, the

national media and federal investigators

poured into the city. Police officers, fearful

for their jobs, pulled back. They stopped

fewer people in the streets and arrested

fewer suspects. And homicides rose. 7

Despite a recent uptick in violence, fears that America is experiencing a serious

crime wave are overblown

Crime statistics

Few signs of a surge

Heavy-handed in Portland

Ebbing and flowing

United States, weekly crimes, 2020

Change over same period, 2015-19 average

Sources:DavidAbrams;citycrimestats.com; policedepartments;TheEconomist *Non-residential

USreaches 1,000

confirmedcovidcases

2,000

0

-2,000

-4,000

-6,000

Jan Mar May Jul

All crime

New York Chicago Average of 21 other cities

20

10

0

-10

Jan Mar May Jul

Homicide

800

600

400

200

0

-200

Jan Mar May Jul

Burglary*

George Floyd

killed, sparking

mass protests