The Economist - USA (2020-08-01)

32 Asia The EconomistAugust 1st 2020

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Banyan Spiked

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oung australianreturnees in

quarantine hotels made whoopee

with the security guards who were sup-

posedly supervising their isolation.

Presumably they were not thinking of

how the 6.6m inhabitants of Victoria

state might react. They know now. Some

guards took the virus home, from where,

in July, it spread fast, just weeks after the

state had emerged from a long but suc-

cessful lockdown. Now Melbourne,

Australia’s second most populous city,

has reimposed tight restrictions. “Se-

quels”, tweeted Eric Bana, an actor

trapped in his Melbourne home, “are

the worst.”

The whole state is isolated, its borders

closed, though not before the outbreak

snuck out and seeded clusters in restau-

rants and at funerals in Sydney in next-

door New South Wales. Its residents have

not yet been shooed back indoors. But

the numbers allowed into pubs and clubs

have been sharply curtailed, while

Queensland and the Northern Territory

have banned entry to Sydneysiders, too.

Not since the Spanish flu a century ago

has the great untrammelled continent

thrown up internal barriers in this way.

Australia is recording more daily

cases of covid-19—744 on July 30th—than

at the peak of the first wave in March and

April. Back then its handling of the pan-

demic earned worldwide admiration.

The latest infections undermine a hard-

earned reputation and throw plans for

economic recovery into disarray. But

Australia is not alone among Asian

standouts now suffering a troubling

second wave of covid-19.

In recent days Japan has recorded

sharply higher numbers of infections

than during the first peak, notably in

Tokyo and Osaka (over 200 daily cases

each). Sexual attraction has again reared

its head. Outbreaks have been seeded in

hostess bars and host clubs, where young

staff are paid to flirt with customers. The

prime minister, Abe Shinzo, has ruled out

another state of emergency. But his gov-

ernment is looking flat-footed. In the

lead-up to a four-day national holiday in

late July, its “GoTo” travel campaign, in-

tended to boost domestic travel, at first

included Tokyo as a destination even as its

governor, Koike Yuriko, was urging people

to stay at home.

Hong Kong, too, was exemplary earlier

this year. Many Hong Kongers swiftly took

precautions, their memories of the deadly

sarsoutbreak in 2003 still vivid. The

territory closed borders, schools and

restaurants; urged office workers to work

from home; and instituted a strict system

for returnees that included testing, elec-

tronic tagging and isolation. Though there

was never a full lockdown, just seven

people died of covid-19 in the first wave. By

June daily life in the territory of 7m was

back almost to normal.

Yet the coronavirus will seek ways in.

Quarantine rules were laxer for pilots and

seafarers, among others. An imported,

and more infectious, strain spread via a

hotel where pilots often put up; some

took tram trips to the Peak, a tourist spot,

while waiting for their test results. Daily

infections recently leapt to well over 100.

Deaths jumped, to 24. Restaurants and

bars have shut again, masks are com-

pulsory even when jogging, and gath-

erings of more than two people prohibit-

ed. On July 20th the chief executive,

Carrie Lam, warned of a collapse in Hong

Kong’s hospital system.

The new wave of infections is mainly

among the young. This helps explain

why deaths have not climbed as fast as

infections. But the danger is of more

vulnerable folks being exposed. The

virus is now tearing through Victoria’s

nursing homes. There are clusters in

Hong Kong homes and wards for the

elderly, who account for nearly all of the

territory’s recent deaths from covid-19.

Even with these latest spikes, the

performances of Australia, Japan and

Hong Kong show the United States, Latin

America, parts of Europe and struggling

India in a dismal light. Nor can other

Asian standouts that have avoided sec-

ond waves, notably New Zealand, South

Korea and Taiwan, afford to feel smug

about their abilities to detect, contain

and treat. Near misses are many. In New

Zealand, for instance, two recent return-

ees were given special permission to

leave their isolation to attend their fa-

ther’s funeral; they later tested positive.

Others, including those carrying the

virus, have broken free of quarantine

facilities, including one who had to sate a

craving for pinot noir. Until an effective

vaccine is found, or the pandemic burns

itself out, the virus will always look for a

way to sneak in—and covid-19 carriers

for a way to sneak out.

A second wave of covid-19 is worrying Australia, Japan and Hong Kong

most members of Bersatu, broke away.

They combined with umnoand other par-

ties to form a new coalition, Perikatan Na-

sional. This bloc now runs the country with

Mr Muhyiddin as prime minister.

Relations between Perikatan Nasional’s

constituent parties are lukewarm. umno

and its ally pas, an Islamic outfit, domi-

nate. They resent Mr Muhyiddin’s leader-

ship. In an apparent bid to keep them

sweet, Mr Muhyiddin has created an un-

usual number of ministerial jobs and doled

out roles at government-linked compa-

nies. Terence Gomez, a professor of politi-

cal economy at the University of Malaya,

says such appointments are irresponsible

while the country is grappling with co-

vid-19. He adds that Malaysia’s sprawling

ecosystem of government-linked entities

desperately needs reform. 1mdb itself

emerged from within it.

Mr Najib was not widely expected to be

convicted on all seven charges. Some of his

backers could seek to make trouble within

Perikatan Nasional. But other umnomem-

bers may be chastened. That would benefit

Mr Muhyiddin—as will the opportunity to

make tough-sounding noises about cor-

ruption, which will please the public.

In the longer term, Mr Najib’s convic-

tion may increase the chance of Mr Muhy-

iddin choosing to leave his newfangled

party and returning to umno, four years

after his confrontation with the former

prime minister led to him being kicked out

of it. This possibility is openly discussed by

the party’s elites. It could save Bersatu and

umnofrom scrapping for the same voters

at any future election. It would be a remark-

able turnaround if Mr Najib’s conviction

were to end up helping his party prolong its

time in power. 7