10 2GM Thursday August 6 2020 | the times
News
Analysis
T
he emerging
coronavirus
cluster in
Aberdeen
will be the
first big test of
Scotland’s contact
tracing and
potentially another
platform for Nicola
Sturgeon to stand
apart from England
(Mark McLaughlin
writes.)
Scotland has the
third highest rate of
excess deaths in
Europe, but the first
minister has been
largely insulated from
criticism as England
has fared worse.
Scotland’s contact
tracing has got off to a
shaky start. Public
Health Scotland has
yet to publish any
comprehensive dataon Test and Protect
because “the quality
of the data was not
suitable... due to a
technical error”.
A small cluster in
Dumfries and
Galloway early last
month was quickly
contained, and left Ms
Sturgeon with
political room for
manoeuvre as the
outbreak was linked
to a hospital in the
north of England.
However, the latest
cluster in Aberdeen is
firmly on her patch, is
linked to 20 licensed
premises, and follows
her decision to reopen
the hospitality sector
two weeks ago. She
admitted this was the
riskiest move she was
prepared to make at
this stage and gave amuted response to the
chancellor’s “eat out
to help out” scheme.
She acknowledged
that the hospitality
industry needed the
money but voiced her
fears that Scots might
pay with their lives.
There have been 54
confirmed cases and
191 close contacts
traced in Aberdeen so
far. Tracers are
working to find more
but they are behind
the pace of other
countries, where the
average number of
contacts per case
ranged from seven to
20, according to the
World Health
Organisation. There
have been reports of
pubs ignoring
instructions to take
contact details.Scots facing pub crawl ban
after Aberdeen lockdown
ed households — those visiting another
adult on their own — can do so.
Outdoor dining venues must close,
but hotel restaurants can stay open to
serve food, for guests, and takeaways
can open. The partial lockdown will be
reviewed in seven days, but could be ex-
tended if cases continue to rise.
The Hawthorne Bar in Aberdeen was
at the centre of the outbreak, but as
health officials continued contact-trac-
ing, scores of bars and public venues
were identified as being affected.
In the Grampian area, which covers
Aberdeen, there have been 1,532 posi-
tive tests, and 149 deaths. In Scotland
there have been 18,781 positive tests and
4,201 deaths. Yesterday 64 new cases
were identified in Scotland, the highest
reported figure for some weeks.
At her daily briefing, Ms Sturgeon
said: “When the Aberdeen cluster was
reported by NHS Grampian at the end
of last week, there were four identified
cases as part of it. In the last few days a
test-and-protect team has been tracing
the contacts of those individuals.
“As of now a total of 54 cases have
been confirmed as having been asso-
ciated with that cluster, a total of 191
close contacts have been traced and in
the past 24 hours across the whole of
Scotland 64 new cases have been re-
ported; 36 of these 64 are in Grampian.”
She added: “I was struck by a com-
ment by the children’s commissioner
for England, who said, ‘If a choice has to
be made in a local area about whether
to keep pubs or schools open, then
schools must always take priority.’ I
agree with that and so did the leaders of
Aberdeen city council and that is
among the very important reasons that
we are taking firm action now.”
Ms Sturgeon has said she “felt like
crying” when she saw images of people
ignoring social distancing as they
queued outside pubs and clubs in Aber-
deen city centre at the weekend. Last
Friday she urged young people to cur-
tail trips to the pub after the under-40s
fuelled Scotland’s biggest surge of Cov-
id-19 cases for two months. Of the 107
positive tests last week, about half were
people in their twenties and thirties.Marc Horne
Bars and restaurants in Aberdeen were ordered to close up by 5pm yesterdayBritish workers are proving much more
reluctant to return to the office than
their European counterparts, accord-
ing to research published today.
Only about 34 per cent of Britons are
back at their desks compared with
roughly 75 per cent of Germans,
Italians and Spanish. France has the
best return rate of the major eco-
nomies, with 83 per cent of office staff
now back, the study by Morgan Stanley
found.
In the UK nearly 50 per cent of office
staff are still working five days a week
from home, while 25 per cent have
returned only part time.
The figures will be a concern to the
government, which has been trying to
encourage workers to return to offices,
in part to help struggling city centre
economies.
Last month Boris Johnson
announced an end to the government’s
“work from home” guidance despite
the misgivings of some of his scientific
advisers. He said that people could
workers’ reluctance to return to their
offices: the ease of working from home,
and an enduring concern about the
virus.
“This is having a damaging impact on
city centre businesses such as shops
and restaurants that depend on office
workers for much of their custom.
“Last month weekday footfall in
London was just 12 per cent of pre-lock-
down levels. If we don’t quickly find aThird of lung
patients go
without care
Katie GibbonsA third of people with lung conditions
including asthma felt pressure to avoid
or delay seeking treatment during the
lockdown, a survey indicates.
As many as one in five people with a
lung condition experienced worse
symptoms as a result of delaying or
avoiding care, which experts warn will
have lasting damage.
A coalition of lung health profession-
als is now calling for the NHS to outline
how services will resume and to en-
courage people to seek care.
Of more than 8,000 people with lung
conditions surveyed by the Taskforce
for Lung Health, 34 per cent felt they
could not seek treatment because they
did not want to overburden the NHS or
were scared of contracting Covid-19.
Due to this, 23 per cent experienced a
worsening of their symptoms.
The pandemic has resulted in treat-Diners take advantage of the floralNews Coronavirus
A ban on “pub crawls” is being consid-
ered in Scotland after a serious corona-
virus outbreak, linked to bars, led to
Aberdeen being put into a lockdown.
Nicola Sturgeon, the first minister,
ordered the city’s pubs and restaurants
to close by 5pm yesterday after a “sig-
nificant” cluster of 54 cases was identi-
fied. There are fears of community
transmission taking hold after it
emerged that the outbreak at one pub,
was linked to 28 bars, cafés, golf clubs
and a junior football club.
Ms Sturgeon suggested that action
could be taken to stop people visiting
multiple pubs in one night. She specu-
lated that there might be a pattern
where people have gone from one bar
to another, spreading the virus.
“We will be looking for lessons that
we can apply elsewhere in Scotland,”
she said. “It may be that we have to look
at some of these lessons to think about
whether we need to tighten up some of
the restrictions about how hospitality is
operating across the wider country.”
She said she was reluctantly reintro-
ducing restrictions in Aberdeen to en-
sure that schools could open on August
- Travel would be permitted for work
and education but tourists should not
travel to the city, she added.
Last month Ms Sturgeon refused to
rule out quarantining visitors to Scot-
land from elsewhere in the UK fearing
“importation of the virus”, saying that
the prevalence of Covid-19 was five
times higher in England. She was later
rebuked by the UK statistics watchdog,
which said it had been “difficult” to
identify evidence for the claim. It said
the sources later cited by the Scottish
government “do not allow for a mean-
ingful comparison to be made”.
Critics said that Ms Sturgeon had
been seeking to “drive a wedge”
between the two nations.
People now visiting family or on holi-
day in Aberdeen can remain in the city,
but must take precautions. Residents
are advised not to travel more than five
miles, and have been warned to stop
visiting each other’s homes, but extend-
British are least keen on return to the office
return to work from August 1 at the “dis-
cretion” of their employers and would
no longer be advised to stay away from
public transport.
Only two days later Sir Patrick Val-
lance, the government’s chief scientific
adviser, said that he saw “absolutely no
reason” to change the guidance.
“People who can work from home
should continue to do so, ” he told MPs.
The latest official data from the
Department for Transport suggests
that most workers are taking Sir Pat-
rick’s advice and ignoring the prime
minister. It shows that passenger num-
bers on Tube and train lines are still on-
ly at about 25 per cent of their usual
level, although traffic on the roads is
back to normal.
The failure of most workers to return
to the office has meant that business
districts, particularly in Britain’s biggest
cities, remain like ghost towns during
the day.
The Centre for Cities says that the
economy will suffer if people continue
to work from home. Andrew Carter, the
chief executive of the think tank, said:
“There are two factors behind UKway for people to safely return at least
part-time to the office then many more
retail and hospitality jobs will be lost.”
However, Morgan Stanley’s figures
do show that more workers are back
now than a month ago, when only one
in six, about 17 per cent, had returned.
Further increases are likely in
September, when several big employers
such as Royal Bank of Scotland and EY
partially reopen their offices.
Nonetheless, several other big
employers, such as Google, have told
workers that they do not have to come
back to the office until next year if ever.
The Morgan Stanley research sug-
gests that there is little appetite among
office workers to return. Only 16 per
cent of those working from home want
to get back to the office full time. Seven-
ty per cent say that they want to be al-
lowed to work from home part time,
while 14 per cent want to work at home
permanently.
In its research note, Morgan Stanley
said: “We suspect offices as part-time
‘hotels’ rather than ‘homes’ for employ-
ees will increasingly become the new
normal.”Andrew Ellson
Consumer Affairs Correspondent
Staying away
Have you returned to your normal
work location? (office workers only)
Yes NoSource: Alphawise, Morgan Stanley researchFrance (809 respondents)Italy (925)Spain (896)Germany (916)UK (751)83%76%73%70%34%17%24%27%30%66%