The New York Times - USA (2020-08-07)

A16 FRIDAY, AUGUST 7, 2020

N

After a record number of Atlantic
Ocean storms over the past two months,
including five that struck the United
States, government scientists on Thurs-
day updated their forecast for the re-
mainder of the hurricane season, saying
it was likely to be extremely active.
“It’s shaping up to be one of the most
active seasons on record,” said Louis Uc-
cellini, director of the National Weather
Service.
Gerry Bell, the lead hurricane season
forecaster with the climate prediction
center of the National Oceanic and At-
mospheric Administration, said there
could be 19 to 25 named storms, those
with sustained winds above 38 miles per
hour, or 61 kilometers per hour, by the
time the season ends on Nov. 30. Of
these, seven to 11 could be hurricanes,
with winds of 74 m.p.h. or higher, includ-
ing three to six major ones.
“We’ve never forecast up to 25 named
storms before,” Dr. Bell said. But he said

that it was unlikely the season would be

as active as 2005, when there were 28

named storms and the Weather Service

had to resort to using the Greek alphabet

for the last few.

And the forecast for major hurricanes,

those with winds exceeding 110 m.p.h.,

was unchanged from the scientists’ pre-

season predictions, issued in May.

At that time, they said they expected

an active season, with 12 to 19 named

storms.

But the season, which officially began

June 1, has already seen nine named

storms, including the latest, Hurricane

Isaias, which struck the Bahamas and

the East Coast of the United States this

week. That’s the most number of storms

on record for the first two months.

Those months are usually relatively

quiet; typically about 95 percent of

storms occur between mid-August and

the end of October, when ocean tempera-

tures reach their peak and atmospheric

conditions off the coast of Africa favor

storm formation.

So far, five of the storms have struck

the United States — three tropical

storms and Hurricane Hanna as well as

Isaias.

Dr. Bell said that while it is more likely

that storms would make landfall during

an extremely busy season, forecasting

the number that will do so is not possible,

because landfall is affected by shorter-

term weather conditions.

Dr. Bell also said that it was too early to

tell whether climate change was contrib-

uting to the activity this season. Hurri-

cane activity in the Atlantic is greatly af-

fected by two elements of the planet’s cli-

mate system — natural variations, over

decades, in sea surface temperatures in

the North Atlantic, and shorter-term

temperature variations in the equatorial

Pacific Ocean.

The North Atlantic variability has led

to increased overall hurricane activity

since 1995. This year, conditions in the

equatorial Pacific — cooling sea-surface

temperatures as the climate pattern

known as La Niña starts to emerge —

may be helping increase activity as well

by affecting wind patterns in the tropical

Atlantic and Caribbean.

But Dr. Bell said that whatever the

contribution of climate change to this

season’s activity, global warming affects

the impacts of storms. Rising sea levels

increase the danger of storm surges, he

said, and warmer air temperatures gen-

erally make storms bring more rainfall.

Both Hanna, which hit Northern Mex-

ico and South Texas on July 25, and Isa-

ias were Category 1 storms, with winds

that did not exceed 95 m.p.h.

Isaias caused flooding and widespread

power outages in the Southeast, Mid-At-

lantic and Northeast. It also spawned

tornadoes, including one in North Car-

olina that killed two people.

Hanna, which dumped more than a

foot of rain in some areas, caused power

outages and flooding as well.

But Hanna had another impact, as it

coincided with an annual research cruise

in the Gulf of Mexico to measure the so-

called dead zone, an area of oxygen-poor

water caused by agricultural runoff of

fertilizers and other nutrients from farm-

ing in the Mississippi River basin. The

low oxygen kills some marine organisms

and forces others to move elsewhere in

the gulf, which can harm the area’s fish-

eries and shrimp industry.

Based on runoff data and computer

modeling, researchers had forecast that

the zone would be large, about 6,

square miles.

But this week scientists reported that

winds and waves from the hurricane had

stirred the waters, mixing the oxygen-

rich and oxygen-poor areas together.

Data from the research cruise, during

which scientists take water samples at

various depths, showed that the zone

was only about 2,100 square miles. But

researchers said that the zone could

have begun to widen again after Hanna

passed and the seas calmed.

Scientists Now Forecasting ‘One of the Most Active’ Hurricane Seasons on Record

Two Category 1 hurricanes have already hit the U.S. mainland this season. Isaias destroyed homes, left, and flooded streets, right, in the Carolinas. Hanna, center, dumped over a foot of rain in Texas.

ROBERT WILLETT/THE NEWS & OBSERVER, VIA ASSOCIATED PRESS NOAA, VIA REUTERS SEAN RAYFORD/GETTY IMAGES

By HENRY FOUNTAIN

WASHINGTON — A Census Bureau
memorandum on creating a state-by-
state estimate of people illegally in the
country is raising new fears of a politi-
cized census — this time involving the
population totals that will be used to re-
apportion the House of Representatives
next year.
The memo, issued Monday, orders an
internal task force to explore statistical
methods of compiling an accurate esti-
mate of noncitizens. It says the aim is to
carry out President Trump’s July man-
date to exclude undocumented residents
from population totals used to determine
how many House seats each state is enti-
tled to. The directive, which is being chal-
lenged in court, is widely seen as an ef-
fort to shift some House seats to Republi-
cans during reapportionment next
spring.
Some experts inside and outside the
bureau see the memorandum as the pre-
cursor to an effort to manipulate popula-
tion figures to give Republicans an even
greater edge in reapportionment. In
essence, they say, they fear that the
methods the bureau is being asked to de-
vise will create a road map for the Trump
administration to tailor the numbers for
maximum political benefit.
“If all that information were to go to
the Department of Commerce or the
White House, that would be highly irreg-
ular,” said John Thompson, a 31-year
Census Bureau veteran who ran the
agency from 2013 to 2017. “In previous
censuses, even the managers running
the census did not see the apportionment
figures until the whole process had been
finished.”
Mr. Thompson was quick to note that
the memorandum doesn’t explicitly sug-
gest any impropriety. “It’s pretty care-
fully written, and it doesn’t say what’s
going to happen with the information,”
he said. “And it doesn’t say where the in-
formation is going.”
Nevertheless, some career Census Bu-
reau employees say it’s hard to see an in-
nocent reason for the request. A cover
letter seeking “thoughts, questions and
concerns” was signed by the bureau’s re-
spected deputy director, Ronald S.
Jarmin. But the experts are convinced
that the memorandum was written else-
where, by political appointees recently
added to the bureau or by the Commerce
Department, which oversees the agency.
“All of this is unprecedented,” one bu-
reau expert familiar with the memoran-
dum said in an interview this week. “The
worry is that they’ll be used for appor-
tionment in a way that will destroy the
credibility of the census and the Census
Bureau.” That person, like some others
interviewed for this article, refused to be
quoted by name for fear of retaliation.
In a written statement, the Census Bu-
reau spokesman, Michael C. Cook, said
the memorandum was unremarkable.
“As always, when a working group is
tasked, questions are posed to guide
their initial review,” the statement said.
“We do not comment on the specifics of
internal deliberative documents.”
The statement did not address ques-
tions about whether political appointees
wrote the memo or whether the Com-
merce Department would be involved in
work on reapportionment.
The storm over the memorandum un-
derscores how deeply the Census Bu-
reau, a historically nonpartisan agency,
has been racked by continuing contro-
versies about whether the Trump admin-

istration seeks to use, and skew, its fig-

ures for political ends.

A group of 24 Democratic senators

signed a letter on Thursday urging the

bureau to reverse a decision, announced

on Monday, to cut the duration of efforts

to count the hardest-to-reach households

down to six weeks from 10. About 37 per-

cent of households remain uncounted.

“This appears to be yet another effort

to sabotage a successful census, which

include the administration’s earlier at-

tempts to add an unnecessary and divi-

sive citizenship question and the recent

issuance of a memorandum seeking to

exclude undocumented immigrants for

apportionment purposes,” the letter

said.

The administration took an extraordi-

nary step in June by creating a second

deputy director’s post at the bureau and

filling it with a political appointee, Na-

thaniel T. Cogley, along with an aide who

had been a Republican political consult-

ant.

Mr. Cogley and the aide, Adam Korze-

niewski, were briefly on the staff of Com-

merce Secretary Wilbur L. Ross Jr. be-

fore moving to the census jobs. Both

have become known within the bureau

for skeptical questioning of statistical

methods used to improve census accura-

cy, particularly with hard-to-count

groups like minorities and undocument-

ed immigrants.

Census employees say the two men

have became known for something else

as well: In a briefing for Mr. Ross by ca-

reer Census Bureau staff members, they

mused openly about the political impact

of statistical methods used to improve

census results on some solidly Demo-

cratic states.

The Constitution stipulates that the

census counts all residents, not just citi-

zens. By seeking to exclude undocu-

mented residents from the reappor-

tionment count, some experts say, Mr.

Trump opens the door to tinkering with

the census totals. In effect, a state’s pop-

ulation for reapportionment would de-

pend for the first time on how many non-

citizens were removed from the tally.

That makes the methods used to com-

pile an estimate of noncitizens crucial. A

method that overestimates undocument-

ed immigrants, for example, would hit

states with large immigrant populations

especially hard. That would be com-

pounded if, as many predict, this year’s

rushed census produces big under-

counts of states’ total populations.

The bureau’s task force is studying

how to compile an estimate of nonciti-

zens using administrative records and

other data. The memorandum asks the

group to find ways to measure an array

of characteristics of noncitizens that

might be used to verify records, includ-

ing whether they face deportation, have

overstayed visas or face immigration

hearings.

It also asks the bureau to study

whether statistical methods could help

determine a person’s status when

records are of no help. One principal

method, imputation, uses an algorithm

to make an educated guess about the oc-

cupants of a household based on its

neighbors.

The bureau imputes the characteris-

tics of a small number of households in

every census. Depending on the quality

of records — and the method of imputa-

tion — a sizable share of the noncitizen

estimate could be educated guesses.

Calculating reapportionment is a sen-

sitive task for the bureau. It is generally

given to a team of experts, insulated

from senior managers and political ap-

pointees, who calculate the distribution

of House seats on several computers run

by different staff members. Only if all the

results match are the figures sent to the

White House.

The bureau does not have to calculate

apportionment; it is required only to

produce an accurate population count.

But the agency has long done the appor-

tionment calculation as a courtesy.

“There’s a tradition of transparency

when the numbers are handed off from

the bureau,” one expert said. “It’s a

norm, not a law.”

In a norm-busting administration, that

is another thing for census experts to fret

about.

“Having watched censuses for 50

years, there is no doubt in my mind that

this is the most politicized census in my

lifetime,” Bill O’Hare, a demographer

and author of two books examining the

accuracy of censuses, said on Wednes-

day. “There is a whole series of things

that suggest this administration doesn’t

see an accurate census count as very im-

portant.”

Growing Fear of a 2020 Census Tailored for One Party’s Gains

A Memo on Noncitizens Raises the Specter That the White House

Could Manipulate the Figures Used to Reapportion House Seats

BEBETO MATTHEWS/ASSOCIATED PRESS

The Constitution stipulates that the census count all residents, not just citizens, to determine the number of House

seats each state receives. But the Trump administration has sought to exclude undocumented immigrants from the

count, a tactic that is widely seen as an effort to shift seats to Republicans during reapportionment next spring. The

move is being challenged in court. Clockwise from top: Times Square, a protest at the Supreme Court, a Seattle street.

BRIAN SNYDER/REUTERS

By MICHAEL WINES

SHAWN THEW/EPA, VIA SHUTTERSTOCK