2 2GM Friday August 7 2020 | the times
News
The economy will take longer to recov-
er from the lockdown than first expect-
ed, the Bank of England has predicted.
After their latest meeting, policy-
makers kept interest rates at 0.1 per cent
and the stock of asset purchases un-
changed at £745 billion. They signalled
growing pessimism, however, about the
speed with which the economy will re-
cover to its state before the pandemic.
In its latest monetary policy report,
the Bank tempered initial projections
of a sharp V-shaped recovery. The
downward leg has not been as bad, withBank warns of slow return to health
Gurpreet Narwan
Economics CorrespondentGDP 20 per cent lower by the end of
June than in December. Its previous
forecast predicted a 30 per cent drop.
The economy is expected to be
9.5 per cent smaller by the end of the
year. This would mark the worst down-
turn in a century but is less than the
bank’s initial estimate of 14 per cent.
The lockdown has inflicted less dam-
age on the economy than feared but the
revival of economic activity will also be
weaker. The economy will rebound by
9.5 per cent next year, smaller than the
15 per cent bounce-back that was pro-
jected in May.
Andrew Bailey, governor of the Bank,
said: “There are some very hard yards,to borrow a rugby phrase, to come. And
frankly, we are ready to act, should that
be needed.”
Countries around the world are
already recovering, the Bank said.
World GDP is expected to shrink by
5 per cent this year, not as bad as the
12 per cent projected in May. Growth of
7.5 per cent is forecast next year.
Policymakers said that the UK’s eco-
nomy would not recover to previous
levels until the end of next year. Job
losses are growing but the bank is confi-
dent that most of those on furlough will
return to work. It said that unemploy-
ment would peak at 7.5 per cent.
Danger signs loom, page 34quarantine restrictions removed, said:
“It is vital that France gets its case
numbers down over the next five days if
it is to avoid the government adding it
to its quarantine list.”
France’s scientific committee warned
this week that the country was in the
midst of a second surge. “The situation
is precarious and we could at any
moment tip into a scenario that is less
under control, like in Spain,” it said.
British government officials are also
said to be monitoring figures for the
Netherlands, where the seven-day roll-
ing average has reached 22.9 per
100,000, up from 3.1 at the start of July.
Britain’s rolling average stands at 12.
cases per 100,000.
Jonathan Ball, a professor of virology
at Nottingham University, warned that
all overseas travel came at a risk. He
said: “Personally, I wouldn’t book any-
where abroad at the moment because
case numbers can very easily go up; but
of course that’s true too of places in the
UK and you could easily book a break
closer to home and find you’re in the
midst of a lockdown.”
Malta, where there has been a rise in
cases linked to rescued migrants, willnot be blacklisted despite earlier specu-
lation. Ministers also agreed to remove
quarantine restrictions on arrivals from
Brunei and Malaysia.
The Canary Islands, meanwhile, are
wooing holidaymakers worried about
costs if they are infected. The islands
have taken out insurance to cover
visitors’ bills for medical care, repatria-
tion and additional accommodation for
quarantine measures.
Reports, pages 10-NEWS
OBITUARY TIMES
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29221219199Councillor shot
in quiet village
A parish councillor
was shot at his cottage
in a quiet Hampshire
village in a suspected
assassination attempt
before the alleged
gunman crashed and
died while fleeing on a
motorcycle from
pursuing police. Page 5
Tory backlash
on planning
Boris Johnson is
facing discontent from
Tory-controlled local
authorities in England
by ordering more
affluent areas to
release the most land
for housing under a
reform of planning
laws. Page 6Macron backs
Lebanese
President Macron of
France, Lebanon’s
former colonial power,
flew to Beirut after the
huge port explosion
and told the crowds
that he stood with
them against a ruling
class they denounce as
corrupt. Page 28TIME-TRAVEL TRIUMPH
Seth Rogen takes on two roles
with aplomb in this week’s
big film, An American Pickle, a
fish-out-of-water comedy
PA G E 7PETE HAMILL
Quintessential hardworking and
hard-drinking journalist who
wrestled Bobby Kennedy’s
assassin to the ground
PA G E 4 9
FUR NOT FURY
A llama named Caesar has
found fame in America after
calming tempers during
Black Lives Matter protests
PA G E 3 2SEPARATION ANXIETIES
Gwyneth Paltrow discusses her
“conscious uncoupling” from
Chris Martin in a candid article
about the end of their marriage
PA G E 9WORLD
New confirmed cases
Seven-day rolling average
200
100
50
20
10
5
2
1
0
20 60 100 140
Days since 0.1 average daily cases (per million) first recordedSpainFranceUKBelgiumAnalysis
T
he number of
new infections
recorded in
France is 1,
a day, compared with
about 400 at the start
of June (Adam Sage
writes).
Officials say that
the rise is partly
because of more
widespread testing.
Olivier Véran, the
health minister, said
France was carrying
out 600,000 tests aweek, compared with
200,000 a month ago.
Doctors say that the
more tests that are
carried out the
greater the number of
infections that will be
detected.
Mr Véran conceded
on Wednesday that
the virus was
spreading: “We are
seeing an increase in
the number of calls to
emergency services,
in the number ofpeople being
hospitalised and even
in the number of
people being admitted
to intensive care.”
Seven people have
died of Covid-19 in the
past 24 hours, making
France’s total 30,312.
Mr Véran put the
rise down to a failure
to respect anti-virus
measures. “We aren’t
facing a [second] wave
but we are hearing
murmurs,” he said.continued from page 1
Second wave in FranceSir Keir Starmer has pulled ahead of
Boris Johnson on the question of who
would make the best prime minister.
A YouGov poll for The Times
suggests that 34 per cent of people
believe that the Labour leader would do
a better job, with 32 per cent preferring
Mr Johnson. Last week the prime min-
ister was narrowly ahead on 33 to 31.
It is the first time a Labour leader has
been preferred as a potential prime
minister to the Conservative incum-
bent since after the 2017 snap election.
A single YouGov poll in June that
year put Jeremy Corbyn ahead of
Theresa May but he failed to consoli-
date his fleeting lead.
While the omens for the present
Labour leader look better — he is
markedly more popular than his two
predecessors — his party lags behind
when it comes to voting intentions. The
poll show the Tories on 42 points, down
one from last week but still six points
ahead of Labour on 36, up a point.
Mr Johnson’s ratings fell sharply as
the government struggled to respond
to the pandemic on issues such as
testing and personal protective equip-
ment, and have yet to recover. The
Labour leader has sought to make the
test-and-trace system an issue on
which voters should judge Mr Johnson.Separately, researchers have found
that public confidence in the govern-
ment dropped sharply at about the time
it was revealed that Mr Johnson’s most
senior adviser, Dominic Cummings,
had driven with his family to Co Dur-
ham during the lockdown.
Daisy Fancourt, from University
College London, said: “There was a
sudden fall in confidence, rather than a
gradual decrease. And we did not see it
in Wales or Scotland. This suggests
something particularly affected confi-
dence in the English government.”
More than 40,000 people were asked
the same questions over the course of
the lockdown as part of research for
The Lancet. At first, confidence in all
regions remained relatively high. In
England, however, there was a marked
decline between May 22 and May 24.
On a scale of 1 to 7, the average level of
confidence fell from 4 to 3.5 and stayedStarmer overtakes Johnson as
voters’ choice of prime minister
Francis Elliott Political Editor
Tom Whipple Science Editorthere. On May 22 it was revealed that
Mr Cummings had apparently bent the
lockdown rules. He justified the trip by
saying that he had needed to be near
relatives because he feared that he and
his wife were sick with Covid-19 and
there would be no one to look after their
son. On the trip he visited Barnard
Castle because, he claimed, he had
needed to test his eyes before driving
back to London.
Professor Fancourt said the apparent
lack of repentance seemed crucial.
“Cummings wasn’t the only person
who bent the rules. Lots of others in
high-level positions did. The response
of others was an apology, acceptance,
and more often than not resignation.
“What stood out about Cummings
was that there was justification, and no
regret... It looks like it damaged confi-
dence in government. These events do
not get forgotten by the public.”
Three people claimed to have seen
Mr Cummings break lockdown rules by
making a second trip to the northeast
on April 19. Dave and Clare Edwards
told The Daily Mirror that they saw him
walking in Houghall Woods near
Durham. A third unnamed witness said
they too saw him there that day.
Mr Cummings has said that he
returned from Durham to London on
April 13 and has dismissed “false”
claims that he made a second trip after
that date.Voting intentionWho do you think would make
Q the best prime minister?Boris Johnson
32% (-1)
Sir Keir Starmer
34% (+3)42%(-1)
36%(+1)
8%(+2)Con
Lab
Lib DemSource: YouGovSample size: 1,606 adults, Aug 4-5, 2020