The Economist - USA (2020-08-08)

TheEconomistAugust 8th 2020 Europe 39

F

ora fewmonthsit seemedthattheBal-

kanswerehavinga goodpandemic.In-

fectionanddeathrateswerelow.InMarch,

ascovid-19begantospreadfastacrossEu-

rope,mostBalkancountrieslockeddown

quickly and strictly.In Maythe Monte-

negrinprimeministercrowedthathiswas

thefirstcovid-freecountryontheconti-

nent.ButbytheendofJulyMontenegro

hadthesecond-highestinfectionratein

Europe.Now, eightof thetenEuropean

countrieswiththefastest-risinginfection

ratesareintheBalkans.Ifitwereevertrue

thatearlyfirmactionhadworked,thatad-

vantagewaslostwithrapidreopenings.Or

perhaps theearlynumbers werewrong,

thankstopoormeasurementora cover-up;

maybethepicturewasneverasgoodasit

hadseemedtobe.

UntilthebeginningofJune,according

toSerbianstatistics,only 244 peoplehad

diedfromthedisease.Thenaninvestiga-

tivereportclaimedthetruefigurewas632.

Thepresidentandgovernment,atthetime

engagedinanelectioncampaign,denied

thatit wastryingtosuppresstherealnum-

bers.ButGoricaDjokic,a leaderofSerbia’s

doctors’ union, said the higher figures

matched those the union received from

colleagues across the country.

Today, says Dr Djokic, and under pres-

sure from 2,870 angry doctors who have

signed a letter of protest, the authorities

seem to be publishing more accurate fig-

ures. She reckons that one reason for the

low infection numbers in the early months

was that there was hardly any testing. To-

day there is more. But even Serbian doctors

who, like her, work in covid hospitals are

still not being tested. She thinks the au-

thorities fear the health system would be

crippled if all the doctors carrying the virus

took weeks off work.

As in much of the rest of Europe, official

messages have been confusing. In the Bal-

kans this confusion has been compounded

by low levels of trust in government. Many

people believe the government is lying

about there even being a virus, says Brikena

Hoxha of the Kosovar Stability Initiative, a

think-tank; and that it is paying families to

claim relations died from covid-19 as part

of a scam to procure foreign aid.

In March Kosovo’s president, then em-

broiled in a political dispute with the

prime minister and his government, told

citizens they could ignore its instructions

to stay at home. On August 2nd the prime

minister announced that he had tested

positiveforthevirus.Unchecked,families

wanderinandoutofhospitaltobuyfood

andmedicinefortheirinfectedrelatives.

Thousandsarenowflocking toAlbania,

where they are packing the beaches in

scenessimilartothoseontheRomanian

BlackSeacoast;thenumberofinfections

inRomaniaisalsorisingfast.

AsforBosnia,Adi Cerimagic, an ana-

lyst,saysthatalthough hospitals have been

copingwell,scandals in covid-related pro-

curementhaveledmany to believe that

“whilethey lockedus down, they were

makingmoneywithit.” In May Silver Rasp-

berry,awell-connected fruit-and-vegeta-

blefirm,baggeda $5.8m contract to supply

ventilators.InJuneNovak Djokovic, Ser-

bia’stennisstar,ignored advice and went

aheadwitha regional tournament he had

organised.Hehugged and partied with his

Croatian and Bulgarian tennis buddies,

severalofwhomwere infected.

Largeminoritiesbelieve covid conspir-

acytheories,whichare often promoted by

prominentpeople,including a former Ser-

bianministerofhealth. Clerics have also

playedarole. In Montenegro infections

haveshotupasholidays begin, and also

after huge anti-government demonstra-

tionsledbytheOrthodox church. Across

theregion the pandemic has coincided

withOrthodox,Catholic and Muslim festi-

vals which have brought families and

flockstogether.Worse, says Mr Cerimagic,

inthispoorpartofEurope the pressure to

return to work is immense, and that

pushesupinfectionrates further. 7

Governmentssaidtheyhadthevirus

undercontrol.Theyhadn’t

Covid-19intheBalkans

Notasstated

Slowstarters

Confirmedcovid-19cases,2020,’000

Source:JohnsHopkinsUniversityCSSE

Romania Serbia

Kosovo Montenegro Croatia

Bosnia

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

Feb Mar Apr May JulJun Aug

A

tochastationinMadridisa daily

marvel. From its platforms a phalanx

of sleek white high-speed trains, known

as aves, streak across Spain. Punctual

and comfortable, they have slashed

journey times in a large and mountain-

ous country long notorious for poor

transport. For Spaniards, they are an icon

of modernity. But many are not worth the

money spent on them, says a new report

by the independent fiscal authority

(aireffrom its Spanish initials).

Over the past three decades Spain has

poured money into transport infrastruc-

ture, including motorways and airports

as well as aves. It now has 3,086km (1,929

miles) of high-speed rail lines (over

250km per hour), second only to China.

Passenger numbers have almost doubled

in the past decade, as the aves have

grabbed business from domestic flights.

Even so, per kilometre of track, there are

less than a third as many as in France.

The network has cost €61bn ($72bn) so

far. airefhas now done the first thor-

ough cost-benefit study of the trains. It

finds that the benefits, including to the

environment, are less than the total cost,

though it thinks that could eventually

change for the lines from Madrid to

SevilleandtoBarcelona. But there are

plans for a further 5,654km of high-speed

lines, at a cost of at least €73bn. Far bet-

ter, says airef, to invest in neglected

commuter networks, which carry 89% of

rail users. It urges the setting up of an

independent agency to set transport

priorities and evaluate projects.

The Socialist-led government broadly

welcomed the report. It may find it hard

to implement. One problem is that some

of the pending lines are half-built, such

as those to Galicia and in the Basque

Country. It may make sense to finish

them. “The important thing is to stop

new lines starting,” says Ángel de la

Fuente of Fedea, a think-tank. Since they

would serve less-populated areas, they

would have even fewer passengers.

Places that lack high-speed trains

understandably feel left out. Take

Extremadura, the poorest region of

mainland Spain: ancient diesels take six

hours to cover the 400km between Ma-

drid and Badajoz. The covid-19 crisis

means that money will be especially

tight. But Spain’s Congress is more frag-

mented than ever. That means that the

price of a vital vote is sometimes the

promise of yet another high-speed track.

Thesignalturnstored

Spain

MADRID

Spain’s high-speed trains are poor value