TheEconomistAugust 8th 2020 411T
he independencemarches which oc-
casionally wind through grey Scottish
cities are colourful affairs. The blue and
white of the Saltire jostle with the red and
yellow of the Estelada, the banner of Cata-
lonia’s separatist movement.
The struggle for Catalan independence
from Spain has been an inspiration not just
for Scotland’s nationalists: it also influ-
enced David Cameron, the Conservative
prime minister who permitted and then
won the referendum on independence in
- If he had not, he wrote in his mem-
oirs, the question of Scotland’s future
would have festered and the case for inde-
pendence grown stronger. Catalonia held
an illegal referendum in 2017, which was
followed by arrests and riots. It was, wrote
Mr Cameron, a lesson in the perils of mis-
handling separatists.
Those boasts do not look so clever to-
day. Recent polls show Scots favouring in-
dependence—the first time that a sus-
tained lead for independence has been
seen, says Sir John Curtice, a political sci-
entist at the University of Strathclyde. One
factor, he says, is Brexit, which has pushed
Remainers into the hands of Nationalists.
While Brexit has degraded the British gov-
ernment’s reputation for competence and
sound judgment, managing coronavirus
has built up the Scottish government’s (see
box overleaf ). Mr Johnson is unpopular.
The Scottish National Party is projected to
take 55% of the vote in the elections to the
Scottish Parliament in May 2021, according
to recent polls, which would give Nicola
Sturgeon, Scotland’s first minister, an out-
right majority, and allow her to demand a
second referendum on independence.
The Conservative Party is spooked. Bo-
ris Johnson made a flying visit to Orkney on
July 23rd, where he said the “sheer might of
our union” had seen Scotland through co-
ronavirus. On July 30th Jackson Carlaw,
leader of the Scottish Conservatives, was
ousted after only six months in the job. He
admitted that he was not up to the job of de-
fending the union. His replacement, Dou-
glas Ross, is the pugilistic mpfor Moray anda part-time football referee.
Mr Cameron thought the best way to
contain separatism was an “agenda of re-
spect” towards the Edinburgh administra-
tion. Mr Johnson, in contrast, wants to re-
assert Whitehall’s role in governing
Scotland, and splash some Treasury cash.
“There will be a little less about pleasing
the devolved administration and more
about pleasing the people,” says an official.
But even if Ms Sturgeon triumphs, Scot-
land will not be on a rapid trajectory to in-
dependence. Instead, there will be a long
stalemate between London and Edinburgh.
The Nationalists may have support, but,
like the Catalan separatists, they lack a road
map to an independence referendum thatScottish independence
Is Caledonia Catalonia?
The battle for Scottish independence will become an ugly stalemate
A turn-up for Sturgeon
Scotland, support for independence, %Source:Nationalpolls60555045403520191817162015NoYe sBritain
42 Covid-19inScotland
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