The Economist - USA (2020-08-08)

42 Britain TheEconomistAugust 8th 2020

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icolasturgeonrecoilsfromthe

suggestionthatcoronaviruscouldbe

politicallyadvantageous.It has,afterall,

beenlinkedtomorethan4,200Scottish

deaths.Evenso,thepandemichasleft

Scotland’sfirstministerinrudepolitical

health.Some74%ofScotsthinkher

handlingofthepandemichasbeengood

orverygood,accordingtoPanelbase,a

pollster.Incontrast,BorisJohnson,who

spentthreenightsinintensivecareand

scoresjust21%,hasbeenstrickenbythe

viruspersonallyandprofessionally.

Inthe 2014 referendum,theNational-

istsstruggledtogetScotstoimagine

whatanindependentgovernmentmight

looklike.Thepandemicwasjustwhat

thedoctorordered.Healthisdevolved

underBritain’sconstitution,soMsStur-

geon’sadministrationhasthetrappings

ofa state-in-waiting.Unliketherum-

pled,details-lightMrJohnson,shehas

givenpoiseddailytelevisedpressconfer-

encespackedwithusefulinformation.

Pointingtorisingsupportforin-

dependence,SirJohnCurtice,ofthe

UniversityofStrathclyde,saysthat

“somepeoplemay,inthewakeofcorona-

virus,haveboughtintotheargument

that,‘Youknowwhat,maybeanin-

dependentScotlandcouldgovernitselfa

weebitbetter’.”Thatperceptionisde-

tachedfromreality.Scotland’soutbreak

hasfolloweda distinctlyBritishcourse.

InearlyMarchScotland’schiefmedical

officersaidtheoutbreakwouldmean

“businessasusual”forScots,mirroring

Englishscientificofficials’optimism.As

inEngland,hundredsofelderlyScots

weredischargedintocarehomestofree

uphospitalbeds,whichmayhavehas-

tenedthespreadofthevirus.MsStur-

geon’sadministrationisaccusedof

coveringupanoutbreakata conference

inFebruary.ShewascensuredbyScot-

land’schiefstatisticianforclaimingthat

theviruswasa fifthasprevalentinScot-

landasinEngland.Scotland’sexcess

mortalityrate,a measurethataccounts

fordifferentreportingmethodsindiffer-

entstates,ishigh(seechart).

WestminsterhashelpedScotland

throughthecrisis.TheTreasuryhas

fundedthefurloughschemewhichpays

thewagesofScottishworkers.Thecen-

tralgovernmentalsorunsa networkof

mobile-testingcentresinScotlandand

ScottishscientistssitonBritishexpert

committees.

Thegovernmenthasthusfulfilledthe

unionists’promiseinthe 2014 referen-

dumthatBritainwouldbeScotland’s

protectorinhardtimes.Yettheappetite

forseparationhasrarelybeensohigh.

Thethreatofa hardborderbetween

EnglandandScotlandafterdivorcehas

beentheunionists’trumpcard.But37%

ofScotspolledinearlyJulysaidborder

controlstostopcovid“shouldalreadybe

happening”,whilea further36%said

theymaybenecessaryinthefuture.

Fewerthanoneinfiveopposedthem.

ScottishConservativesareworried.It

wasbadenoughwhennationalistshadto

buildtheircaseonsolidfoundations.

Nowtheyseemtobeabletowinthe

argumentonsoggyterritory,too.Says

onedespairingTory:“Howarewelosing

groundwhentheUnionisworkingasit

neverhasbefore?”

Independencefever

Covid-19inScotland

HowcoronavirusstrengthenedScottishindependence

NotmuchforHolyroodtoboastabout

Excessdeathsper100,000people*

Selectedcountries,since50thofficialcovid-19death

Sources:National

statistics;TheEconomist

*LatestdataatAugust5th2020,compared

withhistoricalaveragessince 2015

Germany

France

Sweden

UnitedStates

Netherlands

Italy

Scotland

Spain

England

100806040200

is recognised by the British government

and triggers exit negotiations.

The government is not constitutionally

obliged to permit the Scottish Parliament

to organise a referendum. In the 2019 gen-

eral election, Mr Johnson promised to “re-

turn to sender” any request for a referen-

dum. He has happily ignored the Scottish

Parliament on Brexit. And the Scottish

Conservatives have done well out of the di-

vision of the country over independence.

They displaced Labour as the second party

by scooping up the votes of scunnered

unionists with the mantra “No to Indyref2”.

“Polarisation suits the poles,” says James

Mitchell, a professor of public policy at Ed-

inburgh University. “You can appeal to that

substratum of the electorate, even if it’s a

minority.”

Mr Johnson’s refusal would also threat-

en the unity of the ultra-disciplined snp.

Ms Sturgeon says the Westminster govern-

ment’s consent and international recogni-

tion are essential if a referendum is to lead

to independence. Catalonia’s illegal ballot

now serves as a warning, not an inspira-

tion. Spain dismissed the result and public

support has slipped. “The Russians might

be cool with it but that’s not what we’re

aiming for,” says a Sturgeon supporter.

If Mr Johnson won’t give way, there will

be pressure on her to produce a Plan bfor

independence. A group of activists is ask-

ing Scotland’s highest court to rule that the

Westminster Parliament’s consent for a

referendum is unnecessary. Pete Wishart,

an snplawmaker, says the European Union

should be asked to recognise a poll if Mr

Johnson doesn’t. Some even say Ms Stur-

geon could simply declare independence

after an election. Tory strategists like it

when hotheads sound off in this way be-

cause it frightens the middle classes.

Then there’s Labour. Ms Sturgeon’s best

hope of breaking the stalemate is a deal

with Labour in 2024, in which she supports

a minority Labour administration in ex-

change for a referendum. But Sir Keir

Starmer, the party’s new leader, says he op-

poses such an agreement. Mr Johnson told

voters in 2019’s general election that a vote

for Labour is a vote to break up Britain, and

Mr Starmer will want to avoid that happen-

ing next time round.

Both sides think they can win a war of

attrition. Mr Ross says voters are exhausted

by constitutional wrangling and want their

schools and hospitals fixed. The national-

ists hope that obstinacy on Mr Johnson’s

part will fuel their cause.

The price of stalemate is deteriorating

governance. Scotland is caught in a rolling

referendum campaign, which encourages

freebies such as the abolition of prescrip-

tion charges, and discourages unpopular

but necessary reforms. “Any difficult issue

which would be at least immediately un-

popular but might be the right thing to do is

pushed aside,” says Professor Mitchell. And

the devolution settlement lacks friends.

The snpthinks it no substitute for state-

hood, whereas growing numbers of Tories

think sending ever-more powers to Edin-

burgh has failed to stop separatism. “They

fed the crocodile,” says one.

Devolution accommodates two funda-

mental ideas about the constitution: one

which says that sovereignty lies with the

Scottish people, and another which says it

lies with the Westminster Parliament that

legislated for devolution. They need not

clash. But if the snptriumphs in the Scot-

tish election next May, the question of

whether Scotland can vote a second time

will force them into conflict. Mr Johnson

and Ms Sturgeon will both claim mandates.

Mr Cameron will not have saved Scotland

from Catalonia’s limbo. 7