Bloomberg Businessweek - USA (2020-08-10)

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JIM

WYSS

investorstrytoclawtheirmoneyback,thequestion

ofhowmanytaxpayersremainontheislandto

shoulderthatburdenhastakencenterstage.

Theaccuracyofthecountwillalsohavedeep

repercussionsfortheisland,whichis whyGovernor

WandaVázquezregularlyissuesstatementsurging

residentstofilloutthepaperwork,sayingtheter-

ritory’seconomichealthdependsonit.Morethan

300 federalagenciesusedatafromthedecennial

censustoallocateanestimated$1.5trillioninfunds

tostatesandterritorieseachyear,saysAndrew

Reamer,a researchprofessoratGeorgeWashington

University—everythingfromlunchmoneytodis-

bursementsforhighwayconstruction.

“Thiswillbethefirsttimewecanofficially

assesshowmuchmigrationtherewasduringthe

decade,”saysAlexisSantos,anassistantprofessor

ofdemographyatPennsylvaniaStateUniversity.“I

thinkit’ssafetosaythatthisis themostimportant

censusthatPuertoRicohaseverhad.”

Quantifyingtheimpactofaninaccuratecount

istrickybecauseit dependsonwho’snotbeing

counted.Whethera personis elderly,poor,unem-

ployed,livingina ruralarea—differentdemographic

factorstiltthebalanceofdifferentgovernmentpro-

grams.Butatthemostbasiclevel,“everyperson

counts,”Reamersays.“IfyouandI donotfillout

thecensusform,ourcommunitylosesmoney.”

TheU.S.CensusBureausaysit willclosethedata

gapinPuertoRicowithdoor-to-doorsurveysthat

beganattheendofJulyandwillcontinuethrough

Septemberundera revisedschedulepublishedon

Aug.3 that moves up the deadline by four weeks.

The stakes are high: Any errors that might occur

now won’t be corrected until the next census in

2030. “If Puerto Rico misses 100,000 people in 2020
      they are gone for a decade,” Reamer says.
      ThegovernmentestimatesPuertoRicohaslost
      about14%ofitsinhabitantssincethe 2010 cen-
      sus,leavingitwitha populationof3.2million.
      Many left after Hurricane Maria ravaged the island
      in 2017. And even more have fled a grinding eco-
      nomic crisis that’s seen  gross domestic output
      contract 10% from 2009 to 2019. Compounding
      the problem, very few people have been mov-
      ing to Puerto Rico.  But just how dreadful the
      decade has been is a mystery that can be resolved
      only  by a direct census-to-census comparison. 
      The data will also be key to predicting the future.

▲ Santos Burgos, who

hasn’t responded to the

census yet

Puerto Rico Lags in the Decennial Count

2020 censusself-responserate*asofJuly 30

◼ Under 45% ◼ 45%-55% ◼ 55%-65% ◼ 65%-75%

*HOUSEHOLDS THAT HAVE RESPONDED ONLINE, BY MAIL, OR BY PHONE. DATA: U.S. CENSUS BUREAU

Puerto Rico

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