Jesse Keenan, an associate professor of real estate
atTulaneUniversity,co-authoreda studythatargues
thatmostgovernmentagenciesontheisland—
relying on their own experts—are overestimating the
size of Puerto Rico’s population in the years to come.
“Demography is somewhat politicized,” Keenan
says. An agency interested in protecting bondhold-
ers may look for forecasts that project a robust tax
base in the future. The same goes for agencies seek-
ing federal money to expand roads or rebuild after
a hurricane. “People have a self-interest in steering
thesenumbersonewayoranother,”hesays.
Keenan’sstudysuggeststheislandcouldlose
halfitsresidents—1.6millionpeople—overthenext
30 years. But underpinning those grim projec-
tions is census data, and that’s why these next few
months will be so critical. “The census is funda-
mental to understanding the future population and
preparing for those future populations,” he says.
Officials at the U.S. Census Bureau say that
while Puerto Rico’s self-response rate is unusually
low—about half the 2010 figure—it’s not surpris-
ing.AccordingtoJeffBehler,theregionaldirector
fortheCensusBureau,theagencystartedhand-
delivering census packets on March 14, only to sus-
pend its work two days later when the island went
into one of the U.S.’s strictest lockdowns amid the
surgeincoronaviruscases.It didn’trestartthatpro-
cessuntiltheendofMay.
DuringthelastweekofJuly,some10,000cen-
sus “enumerators” began going door to door to
pull data from the silent households, an army
that will be supplemented by at least 2,000 new
hires to meet the revised deadline, according to
Behler. “I am confident we are going to get a 100%
response rate,” he says. “It just means our work-
load in Puerto Rico is a little bigger.”
On a narrow road in the heart of San Juan, a
group of men sat outside a car garage and motioned
to a white-bagged census packet that had been
hanging on the fence of a nearby house for months.
It would never get answered because the home had
been abandoned after Hurricane Maria, they said.
Other homes on the street were empty because
their residents had been moved to senior-care facil-
ities or joined the wave of people heading to the
U.S. mainland.
Santos Burgos, 60, said he’d received his census
packet but hadn’t filled it out yet. “My brother and
I looked at it, but it’s just too confusing,” he said.
“We’re waiting for the census people to come by and
helpus.Tellthemwe’restillwaiting.”�JimWyss28
DATA: JOHNS HOPKINS UNIVERSITY, BLOOMBERG ECONOMICS, INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND, COMPILED BY BLOOMBERG◼ ECONOMICSTHE BOTTOM LINE Getting an accurate count of Puerto Rico’s
population is key for parties hashing out repayment terms on the
island’s defaulted bonds and for agencies seeking federal dollars.Recovery U.S.vs.Europe
The major economies of the euro area have been rebounding
from the recession caused by the Covid-19 pandemic at a
faster pace than the U.S.’s, according to indexes developed
by Bloomberg’s economists using high-frequency data such
as demand for electricity and usage of public transportation.
That’s a departure from a decades-long trend in which the
economy of the euro area has largely underperformed that of
the U.S. The recent divergence has led to euro gains against
the dollar. European stocks are also performing better than
American equities. Because the U.S. hasn’t been as successful
at controlling the coronavirus spread or protecting jobs and
incomes, therecoveryis showingsignsof stalling stateside.
�CatherineBosley and Reade PickertYears in which the U.S. economy outperformed the euro area’s1992 20198/5/19 8/3/20U.S. dollars per euro$1.181.121.06
5/15/20 8/3/20ChangesinceMay 15
S&P 500 Stoxx Europe 60020%100New Covid-19 cases, 7-day total as of Aug. 2France
Germany
Italy
Spain
U.S. 434k1006020DailyActivityIndicators,weeklyreadings
U.S. France Germany Italy Spain1/8/20 7/29/20