The Economist - USA (2020-08-22)

10 Leaders The EconomistAugust 22nd 2020

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A

coupd’etatisalmostnevergoodnews.InMalithedescent

intoviolenceaccelerateddramaticallyinMarch2012,when

soldiersmutiniedandlaunchedattacksonthepresidentialpal-

ace,thestatebroadcasteranda militarybarracksinBamako,the

capital.Thethenpresident,AmadouToumaniTouré,wasforced

intoexile. Withinmonths,jihadistshadtakenovermuchof

northernMali.Bythestartof 2013 Francefeltobligedtointer-

vene,sendingsoldiersanditsairforcetopushthemilitantsout

oftheirstrongholdsinthecitiesofTimbuktuandGao.

ThatseemedtohavesavedMalifroma terriblefate:thestate’s

completecollapseintothehandsoffanatics.Buttheexperience

of 2012 couldrepeatitself.OnAugust18thsoldiersinBamako

againlefttheirbarrackstooverthrowthegovernment.Thepresi-

dent, IbrahimBoubacar Keita, who came to

powerinelectionsin2013,wasarrestedwithhis

primeminister,andforcedtoresign(seeMiddle

East&Africasection).Asin 2012 thecoupplot-

tershavepromisednewelections.But,asthen,

theresultmaybemoreviolence.

Westerngovernmentsaredismayedbythe

mutiny,andtheunrightlycalledfortherestora-

tionofconstitutionalorder.InAfricaespecially,

coupsbegetcoups.Maliisa hubforsmugglingdrugs,armsand

peopleacrossAfricaandtoEurope;thatproblemmaynowwors-

en.ButtheWestmustshouldersomeoftheblame.Intheyears

sinceFranceintervened,thelimitsoftryingtosolvepolitical

problemswithmilitaryforce(partlyfocusedoncounter-terror-

ism)havebecomeeverplainer.Thenumberofforeigntroopsin

thesouthernfringeoftheSahelhasgrown.Aswellashefty

Frenchanduncontingents,soldiersfromBritain,America,Ger-

manyandcountriesnexttoMalihaveweighedin.Buttheyhave

donelittletotacklethecauseoftheconflict:a weak,corruptstate

withscantregardforitspeople.

Atleast4,000peoplewerekilledintheSahellastyear,around

40%oftheminMali.Since 2012 violencehasspreadfromthe

northtothecentreofthecountry—andacrosstheregion.The

statehasnotonlyfailedtostopthekilling,it mayhavebeencom-

plicitinit.Lastyearabout 160 people,mostlyethnicFulanis,

weremassacredbya DogonmilitiainOgossagou,a villagein

central Mali. Mr Keita promised such atrocities would be

stopped.YetinFebruarythisyeartribesmenattackedOgossagou

again,killing 35 more.HumanRightsWatch,aninternational

monitor,hasdocumentedhowMali’sarmyletit happen,leaving

thevillagejusthoursbeforetheattack.

Astatethatdoesnotprotectitspeoplefrommassacresis

scarcelylikelytosucceedonotherfronts.Thiscoupwaspreced-

edbymonthsofcivilprotestspromptedbya decisionofthecon-

stitutionalcourttooverturntheresultsin31 seatsofparliamen-

taryelectionsheldinMarch.Thecourthanded

manybacktoMrKeita’sparty.Buttheprotests

werealsofuelledbyangertowardsagovern-

mentseenascrookedandfeeble.Itisunclear

whetherthecoup-makersactedinleaguewith

theorganisersoftheprotests,buttheyarelikely

tobeembracedbythem.Thedismayofforeign

governmentswillnotbringbackMrKeita.

Mali’ssecurityproblemsarefarfromunique

inAfrica.Forovera decadeNigeriahasstruggledwithBokoHa-

ram’sinsurgency.KenyaisstillafflictedbyterroristsinitsSoma-

linorth-east.AnIslamicStateaffiliateisontheriseinMozam-

bique. Thefightersinsuchcases areinvariablydrawnfrom

peoplewithnostakeinthestate.TheWesthasprofferedsol-

diers,equipmentandintelligence,buthasdonemuchlesstoen-

couragegovernmentstosettlegrievances.InJanuaryPresident

EmmanuelMacronthreatenedtowithdrawFrenchsoldiersfrom

theSahelunlesstheregion’sleadersclearlysaidtheywanted

themtostay.Whentheydid,heincreasedtheFrenchcontingent.

Agenuinethreattowithdrawwouldberisky.YetWesterngov-

ernmentsshouldconsiderwhethertheirmilitaryaidcandefeat

extremistsif theydonotalsotacklehopelessgovernance. 7

Why the Sahel is suffering

MALI

ALGERIA

MAURITANIA NIGER

NIGERIA

ATLANTIC

OCEAN

Bamako

750 km

Sahe

l

The latest coup in Mali shows that Western countries cannot solve African crises with military support alone

Mali’s coup

I

t was notonly Yasser Arafat, leader of the Palestinians, who

watched with “grief and fury” as Anwar Sadat went to Israel in

1977. Several of the region’s autocrats severed ties with Egypt’s
      president over what some called a “treasonous” act. When, two
      years later, Sadat signed a peace deal with the Jewish state, they
      erupted in outrage again. Egypt was suspended from the Arab
      League, which imposed a boycott on the country and left Cairo
      for Tunis. In 1981 Sadat was murdered by jihadists who cited the
      peace deal as one of their main grievances.
      In many ways the region looks the same as it did four decades
      ago. Autocracy is still in vogue; the Palestinians remain stateless.

But relations between Israel and the rest of the Arab world are

unrecognisable. When the United Arab Emirates (uae) agreed to

establish diplomatic ties with the Jewish state on August 13th,

there was little grief or fury in the region’s capitals. Israel’s first

formal relationship with a Gulf state, and its third with any Arab

country (Egypt and Jordan being the others), was met with praise

from many Arab leaders (see Middle East & Africa section).

Some are calling it a “breakthrough”, others a “turning-point

for peace”. But the deal is not remarkable for how it might trans-

form the region. Rather, it reflects remarkable changes that have

already taken place. A part of the world once defined by Arab-

Out of the closet

Some good news for a troubled region

Israel and the Arab world