TheEconomistAugust 22nd 2020 291W
hen a highlyinfectious disease is
the biggest threat to global well-be-
ing, islands with small populations have
an advantage. They can seal themselves off.
The English-speaking islands of the Carib-
bean have by and large done this. Most
have, at least until recently, kept rates of in-
fection low (see chart on next page). Some
small islands, such as Anguilla and Mont-
serrat, have no confirmed infections.
But that has not protected the Caribbe-
an from the economic consequences of the
pandemic. Much of the region depends on
tourism, which has been hit hard. In Jamai-
ca, which with 3m people is the most pop-
ulous of the Anglophone islands, tourism
accounts for 10% of gdp. Its indirect contri-
bution is much higher. Remittances, an-
other big source of income, especially for
Jamaica, have slumped as workers in rich
countries have lost their jobs. The drop in
energy prices will offset part of these losses
in most Caribbean countries, which are oil
importers. Trinidad & Tobago, however,
depends on exports of gas.The islands’ economies are likely to
contract by a tenth or more this year. The
Central Bank of Barbados, an especially
prompt reporter of data, says the country’s
economy contracted by 27% in the second
quarter compared with the same period
last year. More than a fifth of workers filed
for unemployment benefit.
Governments now face an agonising
choice. Should they keep their countries
relatively closed to contain the pandemic,
or open them back up to revive their econo-
mies, at the risk of spreading the virus?
They must also watch out for the weather.
Forecasters predicted that the storm sea-
son, which runs from June to November,
would be unusually active. A major hurri-
cane would make matters far worse for any
island it strikes.The region’s economic turmoil has
seemingly tranquillised its politics. Unlike
New Zealand, which postponed an election
due on September 19th because of a co-
vid-19 outbreak, most Caribbean countries
have stuck to their electoral schedules or
even decided to vote early. Facebook ap-
pearances and motorcades have mostly
supplanted the star-studded rallies and
walkabouts that bring colour and clamour
to Caribbean political campaigns.
Incumbents have done well. Timothy
Harris, prime minister of St Kitts & Nevis,
increased his majority in June. Trinidad-
ians re-elected Keith Rowley on August
10th. A day later Jamaica’s prime minister,
Andrew Holness, hoping to extend the in-
cumbents’ winning streak, called a snap
election for September 3rd. His Jamaica La-
bour Party has a double-digit lead over the
opposition People’s National Party (pnp),
according to recent opinion polls.
That is not because Jamaica has been
spared the worst of the crisis. Covid-19
struck at the peak of the winter tourism
season. To shield itself, the country shut
down airports. Resorts emptied.
On June 15th the government reopened
airports, but that has not tempted tourists
back. The tourism ministry reports 90,000
arrivals over the past two months, about
20% of normal. Many may be Jamaicans
living abroad. The us State Department
continues to advise Americans contem-
plating a trip to Jamaica to “reconsider”.The CaribbeanAnxious isles
The region has been spared the worst ravages of covid-19. That has not protected
its economiesThe Americas
30 NomoreMorneauAlso in this section— Bello is away