The EconomistAugust 22nd 2020 Europe 432 schoolteacher who most likely won the
election (running in place of her husband,
a jailed vlogger), has been a symbol of the
revolution rather than its leader. Forced
into exile in Lithuania, she has launched a
national co-ordination council including
workers and intellectuals to negotiate a
peaceful transition of power. Mr Lukash-
enko ominously promised to “cool the
heads” of its members.
Having lost all semblance of legitimacy,
Mr Lukashenko is dependent on his securi-
ty services. Yevgeny Yuskevich, a former
prosecutor, says the dictator has invested
heavily in them. His officers are “bound to-
gether by a sense of mutual responsibility,
often criminal, and the ideology of a broth-
erhood standing alone against the enemy.”
Riot policemen have been rewarded with
money and medals. There have been no
high-profile defections in the army or se-
curity services. Mid-level bureaucrats are
“ready to switch” given the right signal, Mr
Yuskevich says, but the risk would be high.
Their loyalty, and Mr Lukashenko’s fate,
ultimately depend on the Kremlin—some-
thing both Mr Lukashenko and the West re-
cognise. Belarus’s president used to play
Russia and the West against each other.
Now he has dropped that gambit. Mr Lu-
kashenko has spoken at least four times to
Vladimir Putin in the past week to ensure
his backing. He refused to take a call from
Angela Merkel, Germany’s chancellor. Mrs
Merkel and Emmanuel Macron, the French
president, have also spoken to Mr Putin,
warning him against a military incursion.
Mr Putin has told Western powers not to
meddle in his backyard.
Mr Putin has no need to invade. He may
even be pleased to watch Mr Lukashenko
suffer: last year the Belarusian leader re-
jected his plan for deeper political integra-
tion between their countries. But he can-
not afford to let a repressive regime that
has rigged elections be overthrown by a
popular revolution, lest it give his own
people the wrong idea. Seeing the uprising
choked off, and the eurecognise his domi-
nance, would be sufficient.
At an emergency video summit on Au-
gust 19th, euleaders promised sanctions
against Mr Lukashenko’s regime but in ef-
fect ruled out mediating in the conflict.
“We will be very, very careful to ensure that
it is not us telling Belarus what to do,” said
Mrs Merkel. Thierry Breton, France’s eu
commissioner, went so far as to declare
that “Belarus is not Europe.”
Meanwhile, the gates of the Okrestina
Street jail remain locked. Nationwide,
about 40 people are missing since the prot-
ests started. Alexei Kazlyuk, an activist for
Human Constanta, a Belarusian human-
rights organisation, says that, given the ex-
tremes of the documented violence, it
would be “surprising” were the number of
deaths not to increase. 7
S
ome seeItaly’s anti-establishment Five
Star Movement (m 5 s) as a destabilising
force which, by refusing to ally itself with
mainstream parties, logjammed Italian
politics for years. Others see it as an eccen-
tric but original group that genuinely cares
about corruption, the environment and us-
ing digital technology to give ordinary peo-
ple a voice in politics. Depending on which
view you take, the online referendum of
m 5 s’s members held on August 13th-14th
was either a triumph or a disaster, because
they ditched two of its core principles.
The m 5 s voted by four to one to modify a
rule that limits members to a total of two
terms in all elected offices. Henceforth,
serving as a local councillor will not
count—a change that will allow Virginia
Raggi, the mayor of Rome and previously a
city councillor, to run for a second term.
The movement also voted 60% to 40% to
drop its opposition to formal alliances withtraditional parties, at least locally. That
means m 5 scan link up with its government
coalition partner, the centre-left Demo-
cratic Party (pd), at municipal elections on
September 20th-21st. The poll represents a
step back from populism in a country that
has been pioneering it ever since Silvio
Berlusconi, a media tycoon, came to power
in the 1990s.
The two-term limit was central to Five
Stars’ contention that ordinary people
make better politicians than the allegedly
corrupt professionals. But dropping the ta-
boo on alliances may have more effect. It is
seen as a step towards a long-term partner-
ship with the pd, which emerged out of
parties including the former Communists.
In the region of Liguria, which also votes
next month, the two parties have already
agreed on a joint candidate for governor:
Ferruccio Sansa, a journalist. “What we aim
to do in this campaign is to put flesh on the
bones of a coalition that until now has ex-
isted largely on paper,” he says.
In some ways the time is ripe. Italy’s
other populist movement, the far-right
Northern League, is in deep trouble. Its poll
ratings have plunged from 37% last sum-
mer to below 25%. Many of its followers
have switched to backing the Brothers of It-
aly (fdi) party, led (despite its name) by a
woman, Giorgia Meloni. The fdi, which
has roots in Italy’s neo-fascist movement,
is as conservative as the League, but more
conventional and less hostile to the eu.
Ms Meloni is not as fond of social media
as the League’s leader, Matteo Salvini, nor
of the publicity stunts which have under-
mined his credibility. (Last year he played
the national anthem while djing bare-
chested at a beach club, surrounded by bi-
kini-clad dancers.) Mr Salvini’s non-stop
criticism of the government for its han-
dling of covid-19 also seems to have cost
him support. Ms Meloni has carped too,
but has sounded more responsible.
“She is more subtle than Salvini and
knows better how to play the game,” says
Sofia Ventura of the University of Bologna.
But, she notes, Ms Meloni shares many of
the League’s ideas, like hatred of immigra-
tion and conspiracy theories about George
Soros, a billionaire philanthropist. Be-
tween the League and the fdi, “almost 40%
of Italians support the radical right.”
Much will depend on how Giuseppe
Conte’s coalition government manages the
eurecovery money about to wash through
Italy. If the pdand the m 5 s can stay in office
until the funds begin flowing next year,
they will gain a formidable instrument for
patronage. But the financial advantage still
rests with their opponents, who have
wealthy backers. Mr Sansa discovered this
when he tried to hire a comedian for a cam-
paign rally: “He told me he’d already been
offered more money by the other side than
I have for the entire campaign.” 7ROME
The Five Star Movement accepts realityItaly’s populistsWelcome to
normal politics
As The Economistwent to press, Alexei
Navalny, the Russian opposition leader,
was in a coma with symptoms of
poisoning. He fell unconscious on a flight
from the Siberian city of Tomsk to
Moscow after drinking tea at the airport.
The plane made an emergency landing in
Omsk, where Mr Navalny was put in
intensive care. His condition is worse than
it was last year, when he appeared to have
been poisoned while in custody.Navalny in peril