The Economist - USA (2020-08-22)

Economic data

Gross domestic product Consumer prices Unemployment Current-account Budget Interest rates Currency units

% change on year ago % change on year ago rate balance balance 10-yr gov't bonds change on per $ % change

latest quarter* 2020† latest 2020† % % of GDP, 2020† % of GDP, 2020† latest,% year ago, bp Aug 19th on year ago

United States -9.5 Q2 -32.9 -5.3 1.0 Jul 0.7 10.2 Jul -1.7 -15.9 0.7 -92.0 -

China 3.2 Q2 54.6 1.7 2.7 Jul 3.6 3.8 Q2§ 1.3 -5.3 2.9 §§ -7.0 6.91 1.9

Japan -9.9 Q2 -27.8 -5.4 0.1 Jun -0.2 2.8 Jun 2.3 -11.4 nil -8.0 106 0.8

Britain -21.7 Q2 -59.8 -9.4 1.0 Jul 0.6 3.9 May†† -2.2 -18.1 0.3 -27.0 0.76 7.9

Canada -0.9 Q1 -8.2 -5.8 0.1 Jul 0.7 10.9 Jul -2.9 -11.0 0.6 -61.0 1.32 0.8

Euro area -15.0 Q2 -40.3 -8.6 0.4 Jul 0.4 7.8 Jun 2.3 -9.3 -0.5 19.0 0.84 7.1

Austria -2.9 Q1 -11.6 -7.0 1.7 Jul 0.8 5.7 Jun 0.2 -7.5 -0.3 10.0 0.84 7.1

Belgium -14.5 Q2 -40.6 -8.1 0.7 Jul 0.3 5.5 Jun -1.5 -9.3 -0.2 10.0 0.84 7.1

France -19.0 Q2 -44.8 -10.4 0.8 Jul 0.4 7.7 Jun -0.8 -11.5 -0.2 25.0 0.84 7.1

Germany -11.6 Q2 -34.7 -5.9 -0.1 Jul 0.8 4.2 Jun 5.9 -7.2 -0.5 19.0 0.84 7.1

Greece -1.2 Q1 -6.2 -7.5 -1.8 Jul -1.0 17.0 May -2.6 -6.5 1.1 -94.0 0.84 7.1

Italy -17.3 Q2 -41.0 -10.8 -0.4 Jul 0.1 8.8 Jun 2.0 -12.0 1.0 -50.0 0.84 7.1

Netherlands -9.3 Q2 -29.9 -6.0 1.7 Jul 1.3 3.8 Mar 4.3 -5.4 -0.4 14.0 0.84 7.1

Spain -22.1 Q2 -55.8 -12.6 -0.6 Jul -0.1 15.6 Jun 1.5 -12.3 0.3 28.0 0.84 7.1

Czech Republic -1.7 Q1 -29.6 -6.7 3.4 Jul 2.8 2.6 Jun‡ -0.9 -6.6 1.0 2.0 21.9 6.0

Denmark -0.3 Q1 -26.5 -4.0 0.5 Jul 0.3 5.5 Jun 5.2 -6.3 -0.3 28.0 6.26 7.3

Norway 1.1 Q1 -6.0 -5.5 1.3 Jul 0.8 4.6 May‡‡ 1.4 -0.9 0.7 -25.0 8.85 1.4

Poland 1.7 Q1 -31.1 -4.0 3.0 Jul 3.1 6.1 Jun§ -0.5 -9.4 1.4 -50.0 3.71 6.2

Russia -8.5 Q2 na -6.1 3.4 Jul 3.5 6.2 Jun§ 1.5 -4.3 6.2 -119 73.1 -8.6

Sweden -8.3 Q2 -30.2 -4.0 0.5 Jul 0.4 9.8 Jun§ 3.9 -4.0 nil 38.0 8.66 11.7

Switzerland -1.3 Q1 -10.0 -6.0 -0.9 Jul -1.1 3.3 Jul 9.8 -6.3 -0.5 58.0 0.91 7.7

Turkey 4.5 Q1 na -5.2 11.8 Jul 11.6 12.9 May§ -2.5 -5.9 13.5 -244 7.24 -21.8

Australia 1.4 Q1 -1.2 -4.4 -0.3 Q2 1.7 7.5 Jul -1.3 -7.6 0.9 -5.0 1.38 7.3

Hong Kong -9.0 Q2 -0.5 -4.2 0.7 Jun 1.4 6.1 Jul‡‡ 3.1 -5.6 0.5 -61.0 7.75 1.3

India 3.1 Q1 1.2 -8.5 6.9 Jul 5.1 7.4 Jul 0.9 -7.8 6.0 -57.0 74.8 -4.6

Indonesia -5.3 Q2 na 0.2 1.5 Jul 2.2 5.0 Q1§ -1.6 -6.6 6.7 -62.0 14,771 -3.6

Malaysia -17.1 Q2 na -5.1 -1.3 Jul -1.1 4.9 Jun§ 1.4 -7.7 2.6 -67.0 4.17 0.2

Pakistan 0.5 2020** na -3.6 9.3 Jul 8.4 5.8 2018 -1.4 -10.1 9.4 ††† -427 168 -5.6

Philippines -16.5 Q2 -48.3 -3.7 2.7 Jul 2.2 17.7 Q2§ 1.3 -7.7 2.6 -185 48.6 7.7

Singapore -13.2 Q2 -42.9 -6.0 -0.5 Jun -0.2 2.9 Q2 19.0 -13.5 0.9 -91.0 1.37 1.5

South Korea -3.0 Q2 -12.7 -1.8 0.3 Jul 0.4 4.0 Jul§ 2.4 -5.6 1.4 17.0 1,181 2.5

Taiwan -0.6 Q2 -5.5 -0.3 -0.5 Jul -0.3 4.0 Jun 11.5 -2.7 0.4 -24.0 29.4 6.7

Thailand -12.2 Q2 -33.4 -5.3 -1.0 Jul -0.2 1.0 Mar§ 3.4 -6.4 1.1 -23.0 31.2 -1.3

Argentina -5.4 Q1 -18.0 -11.1 42.4 Jul‡ 42.0 10.4 Q1§ 2.5 -10.0 na -464 73.5 -25.4

Brazil -0.3 Q1 -6.0 -5.5 2.3 Jul 2.7 13.3 Jun§‡‡ -2.0 -14.0 1.9 -355 5.49 -26.6

Chile -14.1 Q2 -43.3 -6.4 2.5 Jul 2.5 12.2 Jun§‡‡ 0.2 -14.0 2.5 -16.0 784 -9.1

Colombia -15.5 Q2 -47.6 -7.7 2.0 Jul 2.3 19.8 Jun§ -4.9 -7.8 5.2 -56.0 3,765 -8.9

Mexico -18.9 Q2 -53.2 -9.7 3.6 Jul 3.1 3.3 Mar -1.4 -4.5 5.7 -130 22.0 -10.0

Peru -3.4 Q1 -19.5 -13.0 1.9 Jul 1.8 7.6 Mar§ -2.1 -11.5 3.4 -73.0 3.56 -5.1

Egypt 5.0 Q1 na 0.6 4.2 Jul 6.2 9.6 Q2§ -4.1 -10.6 na nil 15.9 4.2

Israel -6.7 Q2 -28.7 -5.4 -0.6 Jul -1.1 4.5 Jun 3.9 -11.8 0.7 -20.0 3.40 3.5

Saudi Arabia 0.3 2019 na -5.2 6.1 Jul 1.2 5.7 Q1 -5.6 -10.5 na nil 3.75 nil

South Africa -0.1 Q1 -2.0 -8.0 2.1 Jun 3.3 30.1 Q1§ -2.3 -16.0 9.3 86.0 17.2 -10.2

Source: Haver Analytics. *% change on previous quarter, annual rate. †The Economist Intelligence Unit estimate/forecast. §Not seasonally adjusted. ‡New series. **Year ending June. ††Latest 3 months. ‡‡3-month moving

average. §§5-year yield. †††Dollar-denominated bonds.

72 The EconomistAugust 22nd 2020

Commodities

TheEconomist commodity-price index % change on

2015=100 Aug 11th Aug 18th* month year

DollarIndex

AllItems 121.3 125.8 8.7 18.0

Food 92.5 94.8 3.4 4.9

Industrials

All 148.2 154.7 11.9 27.1

Non-foodagriculturals 102.6 105.7 11.9 13.0

Metals 161.7 169.2 12.0 30.1

SterlingIndex

Allitems 141.5 145.2 4.8 8.3

EuroIndex

Allitems 114.3 117.0 4.7 9.8

Gold

$ peroz 1,950.1 1,995.6 8.6 32.8

Brent

$ perbarrel 44.7 45.5 2.5 -23.5

Sources:Bloomberg; CME Group; Cotlook; Datastream from Refinitiv;

Fastmarkets;FT; ICCO; ICO; ISO; Live Rice Index; LME; NZ Wool

Services;Thompson Lloyd & Ewart; Urner Barry; WSJ. *Provisional.

Markets

% change on: % change on:

Index one Dec 31st index one Dec 31st

In local currency Aug 19th week 2019 Aug 19th week 2019

United States S&P 500 3,374.9 -0.2 4.5

United States NAScomp 11,146.5 1.2 24.2

China Shanghai Comp 3,408.1 2.7 11.7

China Shenzhen Comp 2,253.7 1.7 30.8

Japan Nikkei 225 23,110.6 1.2 -2.3

Japan Topix 1,613.7 0.5 -6.3

Britain FTSE 100 6,112.0 -2.7 -19.0

Canada S&P TSX 16,577.4 nil -2.8

Euro area EURO STOXX 50 3,317.6 -1.4 -11.4

France CAC 40 4,977.2 -1.9 -16.7

Germany DAX* 12,977.3 -0.6 -2.1

Italy FTSE/MIB 20,055.4 -1.9 -14.7

Netherlands AEX 560.2 -2.6 -7.3

Spain IBEX 35 7,094.3 -2.8 -25.7

Poland WIG 52,262.2 -0.4 -9.6

Russia RTS, $ terms 1,316.3 0.7 -15.0

Switzerland SMI 10,310.0 0.3 -2.9

Tu r ke y BIST 1,124.7 0.9 -1.7

Australia All Ord. 6,314.1 0.9 -7.2

Hong Kong Hang Seng 25,178.9 -0.3 -10.7

India BSE 38,614.8 0.6 -6.4

Indonesia IDX 5,272.8 0.8 -16.3

Malaysia KLSE 1,575.4 1.2 -0.8

Pakistan KSE 40,154.1 -0.8 -1.4

Singapore STI 2,561.0 -0.1 -20.5

South Korea KOSPI 2,360.5 -3.0 7.4

Taiwan TWI 12,778.6 0.9 6.5

Thailand SET 1,308.7 -2.1 -17.2

Argentina MERV 47,471.6 -3.1 13.9

Brazil BVSP 100,853.8 -1.2 -12.8

Mexico IPC 39,021.9 1.0 -10.4

Egypt EGX 30 11,160.1 2.2 -20.1

Israel TA-125 1,439.2 -0.4 -11.0

Saudi Arabia Tadawul 7,853.1 2.7 -6.4

South Africa JSE AS 56,433.3 -1.7 -1.1

World, dev'd MSCI 2,394.5 0.1 1.5

Emerging markets MSCI 1,099.4 0.5 -1.4

US corporate bonds, spread over Treasuries

Dec 31st

Basis points latest 2019

Investment grade 181 141

High-yield 579 449

Sources: Datastream from Refinitiv; Standard & Poor's Global Fixed

Income Research. *Total return index.

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