Article
Extended Data Fig. 1 | Evaluation of the method on simulated data with two
periods. a, b, Illustration of one simulated dataset. We estimated b 1 , b 2 , r 1 and r 2
when the other parameters were specified to their true values. The red points
represent the mean estimates and the shaded areas indicate 95% credible
intervals from 3,000 MCMC samples. c, Summary of results from 100
simulations. Each row represents an estimated parameter as indicated on the
right, including (Re) 1 , (Re) 2 , r 1 and r 2. The grey dashed line in each row represents
the true value of the parameter to be estimated. Each column represents a
specified parameter as indicated on the top, including De, Dp, Di, Dq, α and r 0 ,
which we specified as the true values or 20% lower or higher than the true
values. Each box summarizes estimates from 100 replicates, of which the
median is indicated by the horizontal line, the interquartile range is indicated
by the lower and upper bounds, and the minimum and the maximum are
indicated by the whiskers.