Extended Data Fig. 2 | Estimation of R 0 using daily incidence data, starting
from 9 December. Following the main analysis, we assumed r 0 = 0.23 and set
I(0) = 1, A(0) = 3, E(0) = 17 and P(0) = H(0) = R(0) = 0 accordingly. We assumed
transmission rate b, ascertainment rate r and duration from illness onset to
hospitalization Dq (set to 21 days) were the same until 22 January 2020. All the
other settings were the same as in the main analysis. The shaded area in the plot
indicates 95% credible intervals estimated by the deterministic model with
10,000 sets of parameter values sampled from MCMC. Unlike other analyses,
we did not construct 95% credible intervals by stochastic simulations, because
stochastic variation at the early days had very large effects, owing to low
counts. The inserted histogram shows the distribution of the estimated R 0
from 9 December 2019 to 22 January 2020, for which the mean estimate was
3.38 (95% credible interval 3.28–3.48).
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