Extended Data Fig. 6 | SARS-CoV-2 dynamics in Vo’ inferred from the f it of
the dynamical model to the observed prevalence of symptomatic,
pre-symptomatic and asymptomatic infections in the first and second
surveys. Each sub-panel represents the model fit using the specified values of
R 01 (the reproduction number before the lockdown) and 1/σ (the average
duration of positivity beyond the duration of the infectious period). The
dashed vertical line represents the time that lockdown started. The points
represent the observed prevalence data; the 95% CI is the exact binomial CI.
The solid lines represent the mean and the shading represents the 95% credible
interval obtained from 100 samples from the posterior distribution of the
parameters.