Newsweek - USA (2020-08-14)

40 NEWSWEEK.COM

HANGING IN

Republicans have

gained an edge in

some states by

dividing districts to

their advantage;

protest (left) against

gerrymandering

at a rally at the Supreme

Court in 2 019.

“PERHAPS REPUBLICANS WERE right to worry

ABOUT MIGRANT CARAVANS IN 2018.

BUT THEY WER E COMING FROM NEW YOR K.”

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numbers may understate the churn in the electorate. We con-

firmed that using numbers provided by Brookings’ Frey. Arizo-

na’s population is about 7.3 million. In 2018, 274,000 people

moved in and 180,000 people moved out, for a gain of 94,000.

That’s only a 1 percent change in population, but it’s a potential-

ly much bigger turnover in the electorate. Here’s an example: If

the 180,000 who left were Republican voters and the 274,000

who moved in were all Democrats, that could mean a blue vote

swing of 454,000 votes, five times as large as the net migration

numbers would suggest.

Of course, that’s an extreme and unlikely example—not ev-

eryone moving in or out is a voter, and it’s likely both kinds

of migrants are a mix of Republicans and Democrats. But it

makes the point.

SOURCE BROO.INGS INSTITUTION; 270TOWIN.COM; NEWSWEE. ANALYSIS; DATA VISUALI=ATION BY LU= DUNN OF DATABAYOU.

-15%-10%-5% 0 % +5%+10%+15%

The Blue

Invasion

Changes in presidential

voting from 2000 to 2016

show that Democrats are

making gains in the electoral

collegeśrich Sun Belt states,

partly because of migration to

the South from blue states. The

exodus makes the big blues pinker,

but in no danger of turning..