THEN, THERE’S THE SMALL MATTER
OF HUAWEI ITSELF
Finally, what could the executive order and
associated moves by the Trump administration
mean for Huawei? Again, there is by no means
one view of the likely consequences.
Describing the company as “one piece on a
larger game board”, Yuan said that Huawei could
yet gain a reprieve if the U.S. lifts its pressure to
ease tensions between Washington and Beijing.
In the event of a strictly enforced and sustained
ban, though, South China Morning Post writer
Tom Holland has suggested that Huawei
could be driven out of business, albeit adding
that U.S. interests would be better served by
reaching a deal with China.
On the other hand, Spencer has predicted that
Huawei won’t merely survive, but will actually
thrive in the face of the U.S. action. In coming
to this conclusion, he cited such factors as the
company’s Plan B operating system that “means
Huawei is serious about competing against
Apple and Google”, as well as the fact that
“Germany, the U.K. and other countries have not
banned Huawei as their future 5G provider.”
Spencer also pointed out that “China has an
arsenal of technology companies that will soon
rival those of the United States”, citing not only
Huawei but also such emerging state-supported
names as Alibaba, Xiaomi, Tencent, China
Mobile, Meituan, JD.com and ByteDance.
In short, Spencer said, “Trump is essentially
trying to strong arm a black hat regime like
China. It’s like trying to execute a mafia boss
with a drone strike. Something could go
seriously wrong.”