7ILLUSTRATION
BY
SIMONE
NORONHA
AsduringtheColdWar,theU.S.shouldlookforwaysto
managetensionsandreducetherisksofcatastrophicesca-
lation.Russialackstheeconomicpowertocompetewith
theU.S.,butit possessestheworld’sbiggestnucleararsenal
anda largermilitarybudgetthananyEuropeancoun-
try.ExtendingandstrengtheningtheNewSTARTtreaty,a
bilateralarms-controlagreementthat’sduetoexpirenext
February,iscriticalforthesecurityofbothcountries.
Seekingcollaborationinareasofsharedconcern—onclimate
change,say,orspacepolicy—would also make sense.
Engaging with Putin, however, should not mean placating
him. Consistent messaging, tougher deterrence measures, and
resolute support for allies are essential to a successful strategy.
Continued drift will only embolden Putin and his operatives,
to the detriment of America’s security and the world’s. <BW>
For more commentary, go to bloomberg.com/opinion◼ BLOOMBERG OPINION August 31, 2020
ThesuspectedpoisoningofRussianopposition leader Alexei
NavalnyunderscoresthedangersRussians face for speak-
ingoutagainstPresidentVladimirPutin.It’s also a warning
tothoseprotestingfordemocraticchange in neighboring
Belarus.SolongasPutinremainsatthehelm, Russia will
continuetoposea seriousthreattodemocratic values, in its
peripheryandbeyond.
Acoherentstrategytoconfrontthischallengewillbe
essentialforthenextU.S.administration.It should include
respondingmoredirectlytoPutin’sprovocations, raising the
costsforRussianmisconduct,andstrengthening America’s
relationshipswithitsNATOallies.TheU.S.shouldn’t rule out
cooperationwithMoscowinareasofmutual interest, but
onlywhendoingsodemonstrablyadvances its own security.
Aboveall,Washingtonmustsendclear signals to Putin
aboutthekindsofbehaviortheU.S.deems unaccept-
able.TheTrumpadministration’spolicieshaveinstead
beencharacterizedbyinconstancy.Since 2017 theU.S.has
imposedsanctionsagainstRussianindividuals and some
governmententitiesfora rangeofactions,from conducting
cyberattackstomeddlinginUkrainetopoisoning a former
RussianspylivingintheU.K.Yettheimpact of these mea-
sureshasbeenbluntedbyTrump’sresistance to tougher
penalties,hisacceptanceofPutin’sdenialof interference in
the 2016 election,andhispushtowelcome Russia back into
theGroupofSevenclubofindustrialnations.
Morerecently,Trumphasrefusedtorespond to intelli-
genceassessmentsthatRussianoperatives paid bounties
toTalibanfighterstokillU.S.troops.TheU.S. should avoid
a rushtojudgment,butthepresident’swillingness to side
withtheKremlin’sversionofevents,rather than that of his
ownintelligenceagencies,is disturbing.At a minimum, the
WhiteHouseshouldsuspendhigh-levelcommunication with
Moscowwhileit conductsa thoroughinvestigation. If the
deathsofAmericantroopsaretracedtoRussian operatives,
theU.S.shouldimposea costthatwillmake Putin regret
thoseactions.
Meanwhile, Washingtonneedsto push back against
Putin’seffortstodivideNATOandsubverttheU.S.politi-
calsystem.Militaryanddiplomaticofficialsshouldremind
theircounterpartsofAmerica’scapacity toretaliateif
RussiaattemptstomeddleinNovember’selection.Thenext
administrationshouldrepairrelationships with NATO part-
nersandworkwiththemtomodernizeweapons systems.
TheU.S.shouldalsoreverseTrump’sdecision to remove
some9,000troopsfromGermany, which has cheered
Russiaattheexpense of allies’ security.The U.S. Needs
A Realistic
Russia Strategy
Indiareleasesitsfiscalfirst-quarterGDP figures on Aug. 31.
Economists predict a contraction of about 20%, and the
central bank has warned of a severe shock to consumption
that will take a long time to recover from. ▷ 32◼ AGENDA
▶ Daimler unveils its
new S-Class in Stuttgart,
Germany, on Sept. 2.
The flagship Mercedes
sedan has long been a
top seller, but SUVs in
the line have become
popular in recent years.▶ New York Federal
Reserve President
and CEO John
Williams speaks with
the Bretton Woods
Committee in a Sept.
webinar on the fallout
from the pandemic.▶ The annual Ambrosetti
forum takes place on
Sept. 4-6 in Cernobbio,
Italy. Nobel laureates,
policymakers, and others
will discuss challenges
such as Brexit, Covid,
and climate change.▶ Delegates from
China, France, Germany,
Russia, and the U.K.
meet with Iranians in
Vienna on Sept. 1 to
review Iran’s nuclear
accord, which the U.S.
has abandoned.▶ The Central Bank
Research Association,
based in Switzerland,
holds its virtual annual
meeting on Sept. 1-3.
Discussions will focus
on digital currencies and
payment systems.▶ Zoom Video reports
second-quarter earnings
on Aug. 31. With much of
the working population
still connecting with
colleagues from home,
the company’s revenue
is set to more than triple.▶ An Economic Tumble