The Economist - USA (2020-08-29)

TheEconomistAugust 29th 2020 25

1

F

or abe shinzoAugust 24th was sup-

posed to be a celebration. It was his

2,799th straight day as Japan’s prime minis-

ter, making him the longest-serving in the

country’s history, surpassing a record set

by his great-uncle, Sato Eisaku. Instead, Mr

Abe spent the afternoon at Keio University

Hospital in Tokyo undergoing medical

checks and denying reports that he was

about to step down.

Ill health has long dogged Mr Abe. His

first stint as prime minister came to an

abrupt end in 2007, after a turbulent year

marred by, among other things, a flare-up

of ulcerative colitis, a chronic intestinal

disease. A new drug has helped Mr Abe

manage the symptoms since he took up the

job again in 2012. Yet as he has receded

from public view in recent months, ru-

mours about his health have proliferated.

Japanese media have taken to analysing

footage of his gait to see if it has slowed. It

now takes him 21 seconds to walk down the

corridor outside his office, compared with

18 seconds in April, reports tbs, a television

station. The visit to the hospital on the 24th

was his second in as many weeks. On Au-

gust 28th Mr Abe plans a press conference

to clarify the state of his health.

Aides admit that the stress of leading

the country through the pandemic has tak-

en a toll on Mr Abe, but they balk at the idea

that he is too ill to carry on. His third and,

by the party’s regulations, final term as

leader of the ruling Liberal Democratic

Party (ldp) lasts until September next year.

A general election is due around the same

time. On August 26th Suga Yoshihide, the

chief cabinet secretary, declared that it was

“premature to talk about ‘post-Abe’”. None-

theless, the prime minister’s perceived

frailty has fuelled exactly that kind of talk.

Within the ldp, “many are sniffing blood,”

says one of Mr Abe’s advisers.

The succession could play out in three

ways. If Mr Abe is hospitalised or temporar-

ily incapacitated, the deputy prime minis-

ter, Aso Taro, would become the interim

leader. Mr Abe could step down early, al-

lowing the ldpto elect a replacement to

complete the duration of his current term.

The party’s rules allow an emergency elec-

tion at a meeting of its mps, bypassing the

normal party-wide vote. Or Mr Abe could

stay on until the end of his term, reshuf-

fling his cabinet or even calling an election

to reassert control.

Mr Abe’s stamina is just one of many

uncertainties. Two opposition parties, the

Constitutional Democratic Party and the

Democratic Party for the People, an-

nounced a merger earlier this month. Their

support remains too shallow to challenge

the ldp’s hold on power, but the ldpmight

favour an early election to deprive them of

the chance to organise and make their

mark. The Tokyo Olympic Games remain in

limbo because of covid-19. Mr Abe seems to

have thought of them as his swansong—

but they may not happen at all.

Then again, if Donald Trump triumphs

in November, calls for Mr Abe to stay on

might increase, given his skill at buttering

up the mercurial American president.

Moreover, covid-19 has sent Japan’s econ-

omy into a tailspin, and Mr Abe’s poll num-

Japanese politics

After Abe

TOKYO

Concerns about the prime minister’s health fuel speculation about the succession

Asia

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