The Economist - USA (2020-08-29)

32 TheEconomistAugust 29th 2020

1

C

abo delgado, the northernmost prov-

ince of Mozambique, is known to some

as cabo esquecidoor “forgotten cape”. It has

been an apt name. A Portuguese colony un-

til 1975, Mozambique developed as two sep-

arate entities divided by the Zambezi river,

explains Alex Vines of Chatham House, a

think-tank in London. The north relied on

agriculture and, along the coast, was influ-

enced by Swahili culture. The south de-

pended on South Africa and the gold trade.

Many in Maputo have little grasp of what

life is like in the poorer northern prov-

inces. Mozambique’s capital is about

1,700km from Pemba, the capital of Cabo

Delgado—farther than London is from Lis-

bon (see map on next page).

But Cabo Delgado is no longer forget-

table. A smouldering Islamist insurgency

has set the province ablaze. There were al-

most as many attacks by the jihadists in the

first half of 2020 as in all of 2019, which was

bloodier than 2018, the first full year of the

conflict. More than 1,500 people have been

killed. At least 210,000 have had to leave

their homes.

On August 5th the insurgents launched

their latest assault on Mocímboa da Praia, a

strategic port (and site of their first attack,

in October 2017). They killed more than 50

soldiers in a single ambush and sank a

small naval ship with a rocket-propelled

grenade. On August 11th they took the port.

The sophistication of the attack has raised

concerns in Maputo and other capitals that

the insurgency will spread to other parts of

the country and perhaps beyond.

Much remains murky about the upris-

ing. Ansar al-Sunna, the name analysts use

to refer to the fighters, grew out of a sect

that had grievances with local Sufi Mus-

lims and links to extremists in east Africa.

It recruits young people frustrated by the

lack of opportunities in the licit or illicit

economies. Few locals believe the discov-

ery of huge amounts of natural gas off the

coast of Cabo Delgado will benefit them, as

opposed to the elites in and around the rul-

ing party, frelimo.

In 2019 the insurgents were depicted in

a video pledging allegiance to Islamic State

(is). The strength of the connection is de-

batable, however. The insurgents seldom

refer to themselves as being members of is.

Their attacks tend to be on state institu-

tions. They rarely issue propaganda and

have no clearly stated aims. All of this sug-

gests Ansar al-Sunna remains a mostly lo-

cal affair. But it is launching more daring

and complex operations.

At first the state dismissed the group as

bandits. Now President Filipe Nyusi ad-

mits there is a problem, but his govern-

ment is overwhelmed. Fighting within

frelimoover the spoils of a war economy

is intensifying. The country’s best soldiers

are guarding facilities to liquefy and ship

Mozambique

More misery, few answers

JOHANNESBURG

A worsening conflict is causing worries in southern Africa—and beyond

Middle East & Africa

33 Theeffectofaidonmigration

34 Nollywoodandthepandemic

34 Palestiniansatthebeach

35 Muslims debate dogs

Also in this section