The Economist - USA (2020-08-29)

72 The EconomistAugust 29th 2020

Economic data

Gross domestic product Consumer prices Unemployment Current-account Budget Interest rates Currency units

% change on year ago % change on year ago rate balance balance 10-yr gov't bonds change on per $ % change

latest quarter* 2020† latest 2020† % % of GDP, 2020† % of GDP, 2020† latest,% year ago, bp Aug 26th on year ago

United States -9.5 Q2 -32.9 -5.3 1.0 Jul 0.7 10.2 Jul -1.7 -15.9 0.7 -85.0 -

China 3.2 Q2 54.6 1.7 2.7 Jul 3.6 3.8 Q2§ 1.3 -5.3 3.0 §§ nil 6.89 3.6

Japan -9.9 Q2 -27.8 -5.4 0.3 Jul -0.2 2.8 Jun 2.3 -11.4 nil -8.0 106 -0.2

Britain -21.7 Q2 -59.8 -9.5 1.0 Jul 0.8 3.9 May†† -1.7 -18.2 0.3 -33.0 0.76 7.9

Canada -0.9 Q1 -8.2 -5.8 0.1 Jul 0.7 10.9 Jul -2.9 -11.0 0.6 -61.0 1.31 1.5

Euro area -15.0 Q2 -40.3 -8.7 0.4 Jul 0.4 7.8 Jun 2.3 -9.4 -0.4 24.0 0.85 5.9

Austria -2.9 Q1 -11.6 -7.0 1.7 Jul 0.8 5.7 Jun 0.2 -7.5 -0.2 17.0 0.85 5.9

Belgium -14.5 Q2 -40.6 -8.1 0.7 Jul 0.3 5.5 Jun -1.5 -9.3 -0.1 16.0 0.85 5.9

France -19.0 Q2 -44.8 -10.4 0.8 Jul 0.4 7.7 Jun -0.8 -11.5 -0.2 18.0 0.85 5.9

Germany -11.3 Q2 -33.5 -5.9 -0.1 Jul 0.8 4.2 Jun 5.9 -7.2 -0.4 24.0 0.85 5.9

Greece -1.2 Q1 -6.2 -7.5 -1.8 Jul -1.0 17.0 May -2.6 -6.5 1.1 -85.0 0.85 5.9

Italy -17.3 Q2 -41.0 -10.8 -0.4 Jul 0.1 8.8 Jun 2.0 -13.0 1.1 -14.0 0.85 5.9

Netherlands -9.3 Q2 -29.9 -6.0 1.7 Jul 1.3 3.8 Mar 4.3 -5.4 -0.4 16.0 0.85 5.9

Spain -22.1 Q2 -55.8 -12.6 -0.6 Jul -0.1 15.6 Jun 1.5 -12.3 0.3 17.0 0.85 5.9

Czech Republic -1.7 Q1 -29.6 -6.7 3.4 Jul 2.8 2.6 Jun‡ -0.9 -6.6 1.1 -4.0 22.2 4.5

Denmark -0.3 Q1 -26.5 -4.0 0.5 Jul 0.4 5.5 Jun 9.1 -6.3 -0.3 32.0 6.30 6.5

Norway -4.7 Q2 -19.0 -5.5 1.3 Jul 1.2 5.2 Jun‡‡ 0.9 -0.9 0.8 -45.0 8.92 0.7

Poland 1.7 Q1 -31.1 -4.0 3.0 Jul 3.1 6.1 Jul§ -0.5 -9.4 1.4 -59.0 3.74 4.8

Russia -8.5 Q2 na -6.1 3.4 Jul 3.5 6.3 Jul§ 1.6 -4.3 6.4 -92.0 75.6 -12.6

Sweden -8.3 Q2 -30.2 -4.0 0.5 Jul 0.4 8.9 Jul§ 3.9 -4.0 nil 28.0 8.73 10.7

Switzerland -1.3 Q1 -10.0 -6.0 -0.9 Jul -1.1 3.3 Jul 9.8 -6.3 -0.4 51.0 0.91 7.7

Turkey 4.5 Q1 na -5.2 11.8 Jul 11.6 12.9 May§ -2.5 -5.9 13.9 -308 7.39 -21.4

Australia 1.4 Q1 -1.2 -4.4 -0.3 Q2 1.7 7.5 Jul -1.3 -7.6 0.9 6.0 1.38 7.3

Hong Kong -9.0 Q2 -0.5 -4.2 -2.3 Jul 1.4 6.1 Jul‡‡ 3.1 -5.6 0.6 -52.0 7.75 1.3

India 3.1 Q1 1.2 -8.5 6.9 Jul 5.1 7.4 Jul 0.9 -7.8 6.2 -27.0 74.3 -3.1

Indonesia -5.3 Q2 na 0.2 1.5 Jul 2.2 5.0 Q1§ -1.6 -6.6 6.7 -53.0 14,678 -3.0

Malaysia -17.1 Q2 na -5.1 -1.3 Jul -1.1 4.9 Jun§ 1.4 -7.7 2.6 -72.0 4.17 0.7

Pakistan 0.5 2020** na -3.6 9.3 Jul 8.4 5.8 2018 -1.4 -10.1 9.3 ††† -452 169 -6.7

Philippines -16.5 Q2 -48.3 -3.7 2.7 Jul 2.2 17.7 Q2§ 1.3 -7.7 2.7 -175 48.5 7.8

Singapore -13.2 Q2 -42.9 -6.0 -0.4 Jul -0.2 2.9 Q2 19.0 -13.5 1.0 -76.0 1.37 1.5

South Korea -3.0 Q2 -12.7 -1.8 0.3 Jul 0.4 4.0 Jul§ 2.4 -5.6 1.4 22.0 1,187 2.6

Taiwan -0.6 Q2 -5.5 -0.3 -0.5 Jul -0.3 3.9 Jul 11.5 -2.7 0.4 -21.0 29.4 7.3

Thailand -12.2 Q2 -33.4 -5.3 -1.0 Jul -0.2 1.0 Mar§ 3.4 -6.4 1.2 -18.0 31.4 -2.4

Argentina -5.4 Q1 -18.0 -11.1 42.4 Jul‡ 42.0 10.4 Q1§ 2.5 -10.0 na -464 73.9 -25.1

Brazil -0.3 Q1 -6.0 -5.5 2.3 Jul 2.8 13.3 Jun§‡‡ -0.8 -15.7 1.9 -359 5.56 -25.5

Chile -14.1 Q2 -43.3 -6.4 2.5 Jul 2.5 12.2 Jun§‡‡ 0.2 -14.0 2.5 -20.0 787 -8.7

Colombia -15.5 Q2 -47.6 -7.7 2.0 Jul 2.3 19.8 Jun§ -4.9 -7.8 5.3 -53.0 3,849 -10.9

Mexico -18.7 Q2 -52.7 -9.7 3.6 Jul 3.1 3.3 Mar -1.4 -4.5 5.8 -117 21.9 -9.2

Peru -30.2 Q2 -72.1 -13.0 1.9 Jul 1.8 7.6 Mar§ -2.1 -11.5 3.5 -67.0 3.59 -5.8

Egypt 5.0 Q1 na 0.6 4.2 Jul 6.2 9.6 Q2§ -4.1 -10.6 na nil 15.9 4.3

Israel -6.7 Q2 -28.7 -5.4 -0.6 Jul -1.1 4.6 Jul 3.9 -11.8 0.7 -23.0 3.40 3.5

Saudi Arabia 0.3 2019 na -5.2 6.1 Jul 1.2 5.7 Q1 -5.3 -10.3 na nil 3.75 nil

South Africa -0.1 Q1 -2.0 -8.0 3.2 Jul 3.3 30.1 Q1§ -2.3 -16.0 9.3 106 16.9 -9.9

Source: Haver Analytics. *% change on previous quarter, annual rate. †The Economist Intelligence Unit estimate/forecast. §Not seasonally adjusted. ‡New series. **Year ending June. ††Latest 3 months. ‡‡3-month moving

average. §§5-year yield. †††Dollar-denominated bonds.

Commodities

TheEconomist commodity-price index % change on

2015=100 Aug 18th Aug 25th* month year

DollarIndex

AllItems 125.8 124.9 8.1 18.8

Food 94.9 96.6 4.1 6.6

Industrials

All 154.7 151.3 10.7 27.6

Non-foodagriculturals 105.7 107.1 10.5 14.4

Metals 169.2 164.5 10.7 30.5

SterlingIndex

Allitems 145.3 145.3 6.7 11.2

EuroIndex

Allitems 117.0 117.2 7.3 11.6

Gold

$ peroz 1,995.6 1,920.9 -1.5 24.8

Brent

$ perbarrel 45.5 45.9 6.1 -21.9

Sources:Bloomberg; CME Group; Cotlook; Datastream from Refinitiv;

Fastmarkets;FT; ICCO; ICO; ISO; Live Rice Index; LME; NZ Wool

Services;Thompson Lloyd & Ewart; Urner Barry; WSJ. *Provisional.

Markets

% change on: % change on:

Index one Dec 31st index one Dec 31st

In local currency Aug 26th week 2019 Aug 26th week 2019

United States S&P 500 3,478.7 3.1 7.7

United States NAScomp 11,665.1 4.7 30.0

China Shanghai Comp 3,329.7 -2.3 9.2

China Shenzhen Comp 2,237.9 -0.7 29.9

Japan Nikkei 225 23,290.9 0.8 -1.5

Japan Topix 1,624.5 0.7 -5.6

Britain FTSE 100 6,045.6 -1.1 -19.8

Canada S&P TSX 16,790.0 1.3 -1.6

Euro area EURO STOXX 50 3,356.8 1.2 -10.4

France CAC 40 5,048.4 1.4 -15.6

Germany DAX* 13,190.2 1.6 -0.4

Italy FTSE/MIB 20,137.3 0.4 -14.3

Netherlands AEX 566.2 1.1 -6.3

Spain IBEX 35 7,123.0 0.4 -25.4

Poland WIG 52,518.4 0.5 -9.2

Russia RTS, $ terms 1,273.2 -3.3 -17.8

Switzerland SMI 10,309.7 nil -2.9

Tu r ke y BIST 1,099.0 -2.3 -4.0

Australia All Ord. 6,294.5 -0.3 -7.5

Hong Kong Hang Seng 25,491.8 1.2 -9.6

India BSE 39,073.9 1.2 -5.3

Indonesia IDX 5,340.3 1.3 -15.2

Malaysia KLSE 1,549.6 -1.6 -2.5

Pakistan KSE 40,862.6 1.8 0.3

Singapore STI 2,542.1 -0.7 -21.1

South Korea KOSPI 2,369.3 0.4 7.8

Taiwan TWI 12,833.3 0.4 7.0

Thailand SET 1,322.6 1.1 -16.3

Argentina MERV 45,831.7 -3.5 10.0

Brazil BVSP 100,627.3 -0.2 -13.0

Mexico IPC 37,753.0 -3.3 -13.3

Egypt EGX 30 11,453.8 2.6 -18.0

Israel TA-125 1,454.2 1.0 -10.1

Saudi Arabia Tadawul 7,955.0 1.3 -5.2

South Africa JSE AS 56,572.2 0.2 -0.9

World, dev'd MSCI 2,446.1 2.2 3.7

Emerging markets MSCI 1,119.3 1.8 0.4

US corporate bonds, spread over Treasuries

Dec 31st

Basis points latest 2019

Investment grade 179 141

High-yield 573 449

Sources: Datastream from Refinitiv; Standard & Poor's Global Fixed

Income Research. *Total return index.

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