The Economist - USA (2020-09-05)

76 The EconomistSeptember 5th 2020

Economic data

Gross domestic product Consumer prices Unemployment Current-account Budget Interest rates Currency units

% change on year ago % change on year ago rate balance balance 10-yr gov't bonds change on per $ % change

latest quarter* 2020† latest 2020† % % of GDP, 2020† % of GDP, 2020† latest,% year ago, bp Sep 2nd on year ago

United States -9.1 Q2 -31.7 -5.3 1.0 Jul 0.7 10.2 Jul -1.9 -15.9 0.7 -84.0 -

China 3.2 Q2 54.6 1.7 2.7 Jul 3.6 3.8 Q2§ 1.3 -5.3 3.0 §§ 6.0 6.83 5.0

Japan -9.9 Q2 -27.8 -5.4 0.3 Jul -0.2 2.9 Jul 2.3 -11.4 nil -8.0 106 0.1

Britain -21.7 Q2 -59.8 -9.5 1.0 Jul 0.8 3.9 May†† -1.7 -18.2 0.4 -10.0 0.75 10.7

Canada -13.0 Q2 -38.7 -5.8 0.1 Jul 0.7 10.9 Jul -2.9 -11.0 0.6 -61.0 1.31 1.5

Euro area -15.0 Q2 -40.3 -8.7 -0.2 Aug 0.4 7.9 Jul 2.3 -9.5 -0.5 23.0 0.84 8.3

Austria -12.5 Q2 -34.5 -7.0 1.7 Jul 0.8 5.2 Jul 0.2 -7.5 -0.3 13.0 0.84 8.3

Belgium -14.4 Q2 -40.2 -8.1 0.8 Aug 0.4 5.5 Jul -1.5 -9.5 -0.2 13.0 0.84 8.3

France -18.9 Q2 -44.8 -10.2 0.2 Aug 0.7 6.9 Jul -1.0 -11.3 -0.1 32.0 0.84 8.3

Germany -11.3 Q2 -33.5 -5.9 nil Aug 0.8 4.4 Jul 5.9 -7.2 -0.5 23.0 0.84 8.3

Greece -1.2 Q1 -6.2 -7.5 -1.8 Jul -1.0 17.0 May -2.6 -6.5 1.1 -47.0 0.84 8.3

Italy -17.7 Q2 -42.2 -10.8 -0.5 Aug 0.1 9.7 Jul 2.0 -13.0 1.1 8.0 0.84 8.3

Netherlands -9.3 Q2 -29.9 -6.0 1.7 Jul 1.3 3.8 Mar 4.3 -5.4 -0.4 19.0 0.84 8.3

Spain -22.1 Q2 -55.8 -12.6 -0.6 Aug -0.1 15.8 Jul 1.5 -12.3 0.4 30.0 0.84 8.3

Czech Republic -10.9 Q2 -30.6 -6.7 3.4 Jul 2.8 2.7 Jul‡ -0.9 -6.6 1.1 5.0 22.2 6.2

Denmark -8.1 Q2 -25.0 -4.0 0.5 Jul 0.4 5.2 Jul 9.1 -6.3 -0.3 32.0 6.28 8.3

Norway -4.7 Q2 -19.0 -5.5 1.3 Jul 1.2 5.2 Jun‡‡ 0.9 -0.9 0.8 -37.0 8.82 3.2

Poland -8.0 Q2 -31.1 -4.0 2.9 Aug 3.0 6.1 Jul§ -0.6 -9.4 1.4 -47.0 3.73 6.4

Russia -8.5 Q2 na -5.7 3.4 Jul 3.4 6.3 Jul§ 1.8 -4.3 6.4 -83.0 75.6 -11.8

Sweden -7.7 Q2 -29.3 -4.0 0.5 Jul 0.4 8.9 Jul§ 3.9 -4.0 nil 39.0 8.71 12.7

Switzerland -9.3 Q2 -29.1 -6.0 -0.9 Jul -1.1 3.3 Jul 9.8 -6.3 -0.4 54.0 0.91 8.8

Turkey -9.9 Q2 na -5.2 11.8 Jul 11.6 12.9 May§ -2.5 -5.9 13.1 -281 7.38 -21.3

Australia -6.3 Q2 -25.2 -4.4 -0.3 Q2 1.7 7.5 Jul -1.3 -7.6 0.9 1.0 1.37 8.8

Hong Kong -9.0 Q2 -0.5 -4.2 -2.3 Jul 0.9 6.1 Jul‡‡ 3.1 -5.6 0.6 -56.0 7.75 1.2

India -23.9 Q2 -69.4 -8.5 6.9 Jul 5.1 8.4 Aug 0.9 -7.8 5.9 -64.0 73.0 -2.2

Indonesia -5.3 Q2 na -1.6 1.3 Aug 2.2 5.0 Q1§ -1.1 -7.0 6.9 -38.0 14,745 -3.7

Malaysia -17.1 Q2 na -5.1 -1.3 Jul -1.1 4.9 Jun§ 1.4 -7.7 2.6 -68.0 4.15 1.4

Pakistan 0.5 2020** na -2.8 8.2 Aug 9.0 5.8 2018 -1.3 -8.0 9.4 ††† -385 166 -5.6

Philippines -16.5 Q2 -48.3 -3.7 2.7 Jul 2.2 10.0 Q3§ 1.3 -7.7 2.9 -155 48.5 7.4

Singapore -13.2 Q2 -42.9 -6.0 -0.4 Jul -0.2 2.9 Q2 19.0 -13.5 1.0 -77.0 1.36 2.2

South Korea -2.8 Q2 -12.0 -1.8 0.7 Aug 0.4 4.0 Jul§ 2.4 -5.6 1.5 19.0 1,185 2.1

Taiwan -0.6 Q2 -5.5 -0.3 -0.5 Jul -0.3 3.9 Jul 11.5 -2.7 0.4 -25.0 29.3 6.8

Thailand -12.2 Q2 -33.4 -5.9 -1.0 Jul -0.7 1.0 Mar§ 3.1 -6.3 1.2 -17.0 31.2 -1.9

Argentina -5.4 Q1 -18.0 -11.1 42.4 Jul‡ 42.0 10.4 Q1§ 2.5 -10.0 na -464 74.3 -20.6

Brazil -11.4 Q2 -33.5 -5.5 2.3 Jul 2.8 13.3 Jun§‡‡ -0.8 -15.7 2.0 -357 5.36 -22.4

Chile -14.1 Q2 -43.3 -6.4 2.5 Jul 2.5 13.1 Jul§‡‡ 0.2 -14.0 2.4 -35.0 773 -6.3

Colombia -15.5 Q2 -47.6 -7.7 2.0 Jul 2.3 20.2 Jul§ -4.9 -7.8 4.8 -110 3,643 -5.2

Mexico -18.7 Q2 -52.7 -9.7 3.6 Jul 3.4 3.3 Mar nil -4.5 5.8 -121 21.8 -7.9

Peru -30.2 Q2 -72.1 -13.0 1.7 Aug 1.8 7.6 Mar§ -1.0 -8.5 3.3 -87.0 3.53 -4.0

Egypt 5.0 Q1 na 0.6 4.2 Jul 6.2 9.6 Q2§ -4.1 -10.6 na nil 15.9 4.4

Israel -6.7 Q2 -28.7 -5.4 -0.6 Jul -1.1 4.6 Jul 3.9 -11.8 0.7 -26.0 3.36 5.4

Saudi Arabia 0.3 2019 na -5.2 6.1 Jul 1.2 5.7 Q1 -5.3 -10.3 na nil 3.75 nil

South Africa -0.1 Q1 -2.0 -8.0 3.2 Jul 3.3 30.1 Q1§ -2.3 -16.0 9.2 98.0 16.9 -10.0

Source: Haver Analytics. *% change on previous quarter, annual rate. †The Economist Intelligence Unit estimate/forecast. §Not seasonally adjusted. ‡New series. **Year ending June. ††Latest 3 months. ‡‡3-month moving

average. §§5-year yield. †††Dollar-denominated bonds.

Commodities

TheEconomist commodity-price index % change on

2015=100 Aug 25th Sep 1st* month year

DollarIndex

AllItems 124.9 128.2 6.6 20.0

Food 96.7 99.6 6.9 11.3

Industrials

All 151.3 154.8 6.4 25.9

Non-foodagriculturals 107.0 113.7 13.2 22.2

Metals 164.5 167.0 5.1 26.7

SterlingIndex

Allitems 145.4 145.4 3.4 7.9

EuroIndex

Allitems 117.2 118.8 4.7 10.0

Gold

$ peroz 1,920.9 1,976.5 -0.9 27.6

Brent

$ perbarrel 45.9 45.6 2.6 -21.0

Sources:Bloomberg; CME Group; Cotlook; Datastream from Refinitiv;

Fastmarkets;FT; ICCO; ICO; ISO; Live Rice Index; LME; NZ Wool

Services;Thompson Lloyd & Ewart; Urner Barry; WSJ. *Provisional.

Markets

% change on: % change on:

Index one Dec 31st index one Dec 31st

In local currency Sep 2nd week 2019 Sep 2nd week 2019

United States S&P 500 3,580.8 2.9 10.8

United States NAScomp 12,056.4 3.4 34.4

China Shanghai Comp 3,404.8 2.3 11.6

China Shenzhen Comp 2,321.4 3.7 34.7

Japan Nikkei 225 23,247.2 -0.2 -1.7

Japan Topix 1,623.4 -0.1 -5.7

Britain FTSE 100 5,941.0 -1.7 -21.2

Canada S&P TSX 16,698.0 -0.5 -2.1

Euro area EURO STOXX 50 3,337.8 -0.6 -10.9

France CAC 40 5,031.7 -0.3 -15.8

Germany DAX* 13,243.4 0.4 nil

Italy FTSE/MIB 19,858.2 -1.4 -15.5

Netherlands AEX 561.3 -0.9 -7.2

Spain IBEX 35 6,996.9 -1.8 -26.7

Poland WIG 51,356.2 -2.2 -11.2

Russia RTS, $ terms 1,234.8 -3.0 -20.3

Switzerland SMI 10,384.8 0.7 -2.2

Tu r ke y BIST 1,083.9 -1.4 -5.3

Australia All Ord. 6,251.8 -0.7 -8.1

Hong Kong Hang Seng 25,120.1 -1.5 -10.9

India BSE 39,086.0 nil -5.3

Indonesia IDX 5,312.0 -0.5 -15.7

Malaysia KLSE 1,537.5 -0.8 -3.2

Pakistan KSE 41,834.9 2.4 2.7

Singapore STI 2,539.9 -0.1 -21.2

South Korea KOSPI 2,364.4 -0.2 7.6

Taiwan TWI 12,699.5 -1.0 5.9

Thailand SET 1,315.9 -0.5 -16.7

Argentina MERV 44,877.5 -2.1 7.7

Brazil BVSP 101,911.1 1.3 -11.9

Mexico IPC 37,053.8 -1.9 -14.9

Egypt EGX 30 11,214.2 -2.1 -19.7

Israel TA-125 1,416.6 -2.6 -12.4

Saudi Arabia Tadawul 8,013.4 0.7 -4.5

South Africa JSE AS 55,861.9 -1.3 -2.1

World, dev'd MSCI 2,494.1 2.0 5.8

Emerging markets MSCI 1,118.9 nil 0.4

US corporate bonds, spread over Treasuries

Dec 31st

Basis points latest 2019

Investment grade 178 141

High-yield 567 449

Sources: Datastream from Refinitiv; Standard & Poor's Global Fixed

Income Research. *Total return index.

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