Bloomberg Businessweek - USA (2020-09-07)

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2. PLACES

Montana’sBattleoftheStevesstartedat

thebuzzer.OnthemorningofMarch9,

thelastdaytofileasa challengertoU.S.

SenatorSteve Daines,thefirst-term

incumbenthelda commandinglead

inhisbidforreelection.Daines,a for-

mersoftware executiveandreliable

RepublicanallyofPresidentTrump,

wasconsidereda lock overthescat-

teredfieldoflittle-knownDemocrats

who’ddeclaredtheircandidacies.But

thatwasbeforethesecretaryofstate’s

officeattheCapitolinHelenareceived

a last-minutevisitor:GovernorSteve

Bullock,a two-termDemocratandthe

state’smostpopularpolitician, who

arrivedtosubmithisfilingpapersfrom

hisofficeacrossthehall.“Wedecided

thatthiswasn’ta timetobeonthe side-

lines,”Bullocksaidafterfiling.

Bullock’sentryupendedtheSenate

race. Most of the half-dozen other

Democraticcontendersquicklywith-

drew,andsuddenlythepartyseemed

tohavea chance.Daineshasswayed

undecidedvoterssinceJulyand nar-

rowlyretakentheslimadvantagethe

governorheldinearlypolls,butmost

surveyresults sofarhave remained

firmlywithinthemarginoferror.The

Bullock-Daineselectionseemslikelyto

beamongAmerica’smostcompetitive

onNov.3,andwithRepublicansnurs-

inga fragile53-47majorityintheSenate,

Montana’smightjustbetheunlikely

seatthatflipstheupper chamber into

Democratichands.

The campaignsdeclinedto make

thecandidatesavailableforinterviews

forthisstory.Inanemail,theBullock

campaignsaidthegovernorwillput

Montana’sneedsaheadofpartylead-

ersandindividualinterestgroups.The

Dainescampaign saidBullockistoo

focusedondefeatingthepresident.As

theRepublicanNationalConvention

beganinlateAugust,Dainestoldthe

BillingsCBSaffiliatethat“Montanans

wanttoelecta senatorwho’sgoing to

standwithPresidentTrump.”

Fouryearsago,TrumpwonMontana

by 20 points.Today,withmorethan

180,000AmericansdeadfromCovid-19,

includingabout 90 Montanans,he’s

stillcomfortablyleadingformerVice

PresidentJoeBidenbyabouthalfthat

margin.MontanahasvotedRepublican

in every presidential election since the

1960swiththeexceptionofBillClinton,

whobenefitedfromthird-partycandi-

dateRossPerot’sstrongshowingthere

in1992.Andsincethen,theSenatemap

hascometomuchmoresharplyresem-

bletheElectoralCollege,becausemost

Americansnowcasttheirballotsforthe

samepartyallthewaydowntheticket.A

generationagofewerthanhalfthecoun-

try’s 100 senatorscamefromthesame

partiesthatwontheirstates’presiden-

tialvotes;nowthenumberstandsat89.

(AmongtheSenateseatsincontention

in2016,thatVenndiagramwasa circle.)

Forthemostpart,theclichéthatallpol-

iticsis localseemsoutofdateintheU.S.

Montana is an outlier. Although

Republicansrulethe statehouseand

thesedaystendtowinthestate’sonly

seatintheU.S.HouseofRepresentatives,

votershaveelectedDemocratsinthe

pastfourgubernatorialcampaignsand

fiveofthepastsixU.S.Senateraces.

“It’sa populistpurplestate,”saysDavid

Parker,a politicalscientistatMontana

StateUniversitywho’sfocused on recent

Senatecampaigns.

Asgovernor,Bullockhasembodied

someofthecontradictionsandnuances

ofa massivestatewith1 millionpeople

andanoutdoors-centriceconomy.He

supportsa publicoption,a government

healthinsuranceprogramtocompete

withprivateplans,butnotthesingle-

payerhealthinsurancesystemoften

calledMedicarefor All.He supports

freezestocollegetuitionandgreater

state spending on education but not

thecancellationofstudentdebtorfree

tuitionforpubliccolleges.Hesupports

runningthelong-delayedKeystoneXL

oilpipelinethroughMontana,aslongas

it’sinconsultationwithAmericanIndian

triballeadersandnearbylandowners.

Therearethreeperennialtargetsin

Montanaelections:BigGovernment,

bigcorporations(notablyBigPharma),

andoutsiders,looselydefinedasany-

onewhodidn’tgrowupthere.Bullock’s

lastgubernatorialcampaignstressed

theNewJerseyoriginsofa rivalwho’s

livedinMontanasincethe1990s.Two

yearsago,Montana’s seniorsenator,

Democrat JonTester, narrowlywon

a thirdtermafterbrandinghisoppo-

nent,whomovedtothe state in 2002,

as“MarylandMatt.”

That’snotreallyanoptionagainst

Daines,a fifth-generationMontanan

who’slivedtherewithfewexceptions

since1964.Instead,theSenatecam-

paignsofarhasrevolvedaroundthe

questionsofwhotrulyhaslocalinterests

atheart,who’sdeliveredbetterresults

forMontanaduringthecoronaviruspan-

demic,and,yes,Trump.Twoyearsago,

Testerranhardonhisrecordofwork-

ingwiththepresidenttohelpMontana’s

manyveteransandfirstresponders—

whilefightingtheWhiteHouseattimes

whenhethoughtthoseinterestswere

at risk.Withoutsidemoneyflowing

intotheSenatecampaignata record

pace,Bullock,whosupportedTrump’s

impeachmentlastyear,willtestjust how

local his state’s politics still are.

○ BULLOCK FILING IN MARCH TO RUN FOR THE SENATE

FROM TOP: THOM BRIDGE/INDEPENDENT RECORD; TIA DUFOUR/WHITE HOUSE