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ELECTION 2020- PLACES
WhenSeanBowiefirstranforanArizona
stateSenateseatin2016,hisoddsdidn’t
lookgreat.The32-year-oldDemocrat
wasrunningina suburbanPhoenixdis-
trictthatwasentirelyred:Thetwostate
Housemembersandonesenatorrepre-
sentingthe18thlegislativedistrict,inthe
EastValleysuburbswhereBowiegrew
up,wereallRepublicans.NoDemocrat
hadeverbeenelected to the state Senate
fromthedistrict.
Bowie,whoworkedintheprovost’s
officeatArizonaStateUniversity,hadan
inklingthatthingswerechanging.Many
ofthedistrict’svoterswerehigh-income
professionals:professorsandscientists
atthe university,and engineersand
executivesatIntelCorp.orHoneywell
InternationalInc.,thelargestemployers.
Aninfluxoftechworkerswasarrivingat
PayPalInc.,whichanchorsthethriving
techcommunityinBowie’shometown
ofChandler.A growingnumberofres-
idents,too,werenon-White,especially
Asian.Whilethe18thdistricthadvoted
Republicanforaslongasanyonecould
remember,Bowiesensedhisneighbors
weren’tentirelycomfortablewiththe
party’sdrifttowardextremismoritsnew
presidentialnominee,DonaldTrump.
Hedecidedtobethiscampaignon
it.PoweredbyKitKatbars,Bowiespent
longmonthsknockingonthedoorsof
about15,000ofhisneighbors.Hedidn’t
focusonfellowDemocrats.Instead,he
spentthebulkofhisenergytryingto
persuadelongtimeRepublicansand
independentstobreakwithtradition
andvoteforhim.“Nobodygavemea
chancetowin,”hesays.“ButI’dgrown
uphere,knockedona lotofdoorsfor
a lotofothercandidatesovertheyears,
andI knewthingswereshifting.I’dtalk
topeopleatthedoorwho’djustcome
homefroma dayofgolfing,peoplewho
werenormallyRepublicans,andyou
couldjustseetheywerehaving doubts
aboutwhotosupport.”
Bowie gotsome unexpectedhelp.
JustasestablishmentRepublicanslike
JebBushandMarcoRubioweregetting
steamrolledbyTrumpinthepresiden-
tialprimary,theincumbentRepublican
senatorwhomBowiewaschallenginglost
hisprimarytoa right-wingupstart.It was
oneofcountlesswaysinwhichTrump’s
fiery,anti-immigrantrhetoricwasalready
reshaping the national climate andaffectingracesupanddowntheballot.
On Election Day, Trump’s upset
victoryoverHillaryClintonwasthebig
story.ButBowiealsoprevailed,narrowly
beatinghisRepublicanopponent.Atthe
time,everyonethoughtTrump’selection
wasa harbingerofwhereU.S.politicswas
headed,hishard-rightnationalismhav-
ingcapturedtheGOPandvanquished
a wheezing,broken-downDemocratic
Party.Today,however,it’sbecomeclear
thattheforcesthatpropelledBowie’svic-
toryinsuburbanPhoenixaretheones
reshapingU.S.politics—in Arizona and
acrossthecountry.
Nowhereis thistransformationmore
apparentthaninMaricopaCountyandits
inner-ringsuburbsaroundPhoenixthat
includeBowie’sdistrict.Maricopais one
ofthelargestcountiesintheU.S.byboth
areaandpopulation:With4.5millionres-
idents,it’smorepopulousthan 23 states.
Thatgivesit outsizepoliticalimportance,
becausewhoeverwinsthecountyusu-
allywinsthestate.AndbecauseArizona
hasemergedasa crucialbattleground,
it’snoexaggerationtosaythatcontrolof
theWhiteHouseandU.S.Senatecould
bothenduphingingonMaricopaCounty.
Foranyone hopingtounderstand
AmericanpoliticsintheTrumpera,its
significancegoesevenfurther.Maricopa
is oneofthemostheavilysuburbancoun-
tiesinthecountry,growinganddiversify-
ingata morerapidclipthananyalmost
anywhereelse.ThetrendsinMaricopa
arebeingreplicatedinsuburbsacrossthe
country,particularlyinfast-growing,tra-
ditionallyRepublicanmetroareassuch
asAtlanta,Dallas,Denver,andHouston.
In2016,Trumpwonthemnarrowly.In
2018,Democratsmadehugeinroads,tak-
ingovertheHouseofRepresentatives
onthestrengthofsuburbanvoterswho
oustedGOPincumbents.Now,in2020,
thesesuburbshaveemerged as the new
frontierofU.S.politics.
Four years ago, Trump carried
Maricopaby3 percentagepoints,and
withit thestate.Thiswasn’tsurpris-
ing:EveryRepublicanpresidentialcan-
didatesince 1948 haswonthecounty.
Foryearsit wassynonymouswithits
notoriousanti-immigrantsheriff,Joe
Arpaio,whodetainedmigrantsinan
outdoorjailhecalledTentCity and
eagerlyendorsedTrump.
In hindsight, though, Trump’s victory,ratherthanpointingtothefuture,now
lookslikethelastvestigeofanerathat
mayhavealreadypassed.Fouryears
afterBowiewonhis Senateseat,the
18thdistrict’sentirestate-leveldelega-
tionhasmorphedfromredtoblue.A
similarchangehassweptthroughsub-
urbandistrictsallaroundPhoenix,as
themoderateRepublicanswhoonce
governedhavebecomeanendangered
species.In2016,Bowiewonhisraceby
3 percentagepoints;in2018,running
againstthesameopponent,hismar-
gingrewto 14 points.Thisyearhe’sfac-
inga newRepublicanchallengerwho’s
postedslogansandvideosonTwitter
andFacebooktoutingQAnon,thelunatic
conspiracytheorythatclaimsDemocrats
aresecretlyharboringa satanic cult of
pedophilesandcannibals.
AcrossMaricopaCounty,thestoryof
thepastfouryearsismuchthesame.
Fueledbyrapidpopulationgrowthand
shiftingdemographics,suburbanpol-
iticsischanging. Twentyyears ago,
Whitesmadeuptwo-thirdsofthecoun-
ty’spopulation;todaythey’recloserto
half.Hispanicshavegrownfrombeinga
quarterofMaricoparesidentstoalmost
one-third,whiletheAsianandAmerican
Indianpopulationhasalmostdoubled,
to8.5%.“Racismcomesupa lotwhen
I ask people to identify thebiggest
problemsinthecountry,”saysSarah
Longwell,a Republicanstrategistwho
studiessuburbanvoters.Bowiesaysthe
starkestchangehasoccurredamongthe
Whiteprofessionalsheencounters—the
uneasygolfers—whofeelincreasingly
alienatedfromtheGOP.“They’rejust
notfansoftheTrump-stylepolitics,”he
says.“That’sshinedthrough in the past
coupleofelections.”
Recognizinghowcriticalthesesubur-
banvotersaretohisreelectionhopes,
PresidentTrumphaslaunchedaneffort
tounsettlethembystokingfearsthat
an influxofracialminorities—led,he
claims,bya BlackDemocrat,Senator
CoryBookerofNewJersey—willbring
violentcrimeandfallingpropertyvalues
totheirneighborhoods.“The‘suburban
housewife’willbevotingforme,”Trump
tweetedonAug.12.“Theywantsafety
& arethrilledthatI endedthelongrun-
ningprogramwherelowincomehousing
wouldinvadetheirneighborhood.Biden
would reinstall it, in a bigger form,