Bloomberg Businessweek - USA (2020-09-07)

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ELECTION 2020

2. PLACES

withCorey[sic]Bookerincharge!”

But Trump’s appeal to racist

sentimentis rootedinanimageofsub-

urbsasrich,lily-whiteenclavesofthe

sortportrayedinTVshowslikeMad

Men, whichwassetinthe1960sand

depicted a suburban Americanow

decadesoutofdate.“PeoplelikeTrump

havethisgauzyideaofwhatthesuburbs

are,butthey’rereallya microcosmof

America,”saysWilliamFrey,a demog-

rapherat the Brookings Institution

andauthorofDiversityExplosion:How

NewRacialDemographicsAreRemaking

America. “Theyhaverichandpoor;

Black,White,andLatino;andasthey

change,theirvotingpatternschange,

too.Asa group,suburbshavebecome

muchmoreraciallydiverse,much more

liketherestofAmerica.”

EvenasTrumpwon hisupsetvic-

tory,thesechangeswereassertingthem-

selvesinsuburbsacrossthecountry.It’s

entirelypossiblethatTrumpcouldwin

reelectionthisfalldespitethem.Evenif

hedoes,thetrendsinMaricopaandin

suburbsnationwidesuggestthathistory

ismovingagainsthisbrandofpolitics.

AlthoughTrumpprevailedin2016,voters

inMaricopaCountyfinallyoustedSheriff

Arpaio—theur-Trump—aftera 24-year

tenure.TomanyArizonans,Arpaio’s

defeatsymbolizedchangeslongunder

wayandstoodasfurtherevidencefora

localcontentionthatwhateveris happen-

inginArizonaatanygivenmomentis a

previewoftheissuesanddramasthat will

soondominatenationalpolitics.

Indeed, Maricopa’s story in the

decadebeforeTrumpis illuminatingpre-

ciselybecauseit foreshadowedwhatwas

abouttohappen;anyonefollowingalong

wouldhaveunderstoodwhyAmericans

wereabouttoelectTrump. Itsstory

sincethenis nolessvital,becauseit also

explainswhyvotersmay now be ready to

move on from him.

“Ifyouwanttounderstandthetrajectory

ofTrumpism,youhavetolookatArizona

politicsfromabout 2006 onward,”says

KirkAdams,a formerRepublicanspeaker

ofthestateHouseofRepresentatives.

“Weweretheprecursor.”

Adams,now47,wasfirstelectedto

thelegislaturethatsameyearfroma

suburbanPhoenixdistrictnotfarfrom

Bowie’s. At the time, the state GOP

wasdominatedbybusiness-friendly

moderates,althougha populist strain

wasfastemerging.

Intheearly2000s,Arizona’secon-

omythrived,turningMaricopaintothe

fastest-growingcountyinAmerica.New

arrivalsneededsomewheretolive.The

demandforhousingdrovea construc-

tionboom,turbochargedbylaxlending

standards,thatreliedheavilyoncheap

immigrantlaborers.Many of them came

illegallyfromMexico.

Astheimmigrantpopulationswelled,

sodidthebacklash.InsuburbanArizona,

worriesaboutpublicsafetyandanover-

burdened civic infrastructure com-

mingledwithracism andfrustration

atthefederalgovernment’sfailureto

strengthenbordersecurityandreform

immigrationlaws.Inthestatelegisla-

ture,far-rightconservativesledbyRussell

Pearce,a representative from Mesa

whosecampaignsignsread“America

First,”beganpushinga seriesofbillsto

restrictillegalimmigrants’accesstostate

servicesandpunishemployerswhohired

them.(Beforewinninghisstatehouse

seat,PearcehadworkedasArpaio’sdep-

utyintheMaricopasheriff ’soffice.)

In2004,Pearcehelpedcrafta state

ballotinitiative that required proof

ofcitizenshiptoregisteranda photo

IDtovote,whileobligatingstateand

localagenciesto verifyimmigrants’

legal status. Opponents called the

measurediscriminatoryandlikened

ittoCalifornia’snotorious 1994 anti-

immigrantProposition187.Nonetheless,

Arizonavoterspassedit easily.(TheU.S.

SupremeCourtlaterstruckit down.)

Pearceandhisalliessteppeduptheir

crusadeagainstwhathecalled“anille-

galinvasion.”In2005,Arizonaenacted

a lawmakinghumansmugglinga state

crime.A yearlater,Pearcecalledforthe

renewalofthe1950s-erafederaldepor-

tationprogram knownas Operation

Wetback.Atthesametime,Arpaiowas

gainingnationalcelebritybybillinghim-

selfas“America’stoughestsheriff ”and

making flamboyantdisplays of anti-

immigrantcruelty.Themessagereso-

natedwithmanyfed-upvoters.

Alarmedthatthecontroversy was

givingthestatea racistimage,thebusi-

nesscommunityandalliedRepublicans

workedtoweakenandbottleupPearce’s

measures, to little avail. Adams recalls the

momentwhenherealizedthehard-liners

hadgainedtheupperhand.“In2007,

Arizonahadthefirstemployer-sanctions

lawinthecountry,”hesays.“Allsession

longthebusinesscommunitylobbied

metoopposethebill,sayingit wasa fed-

eralissue,nota stateone.Oneday,just

asI wasabouttovoteonthebill,oneof

thebusinesslobbyistsgrabbedmeand

said,‘Justa heads-up—we’vehadtodrop

ouroppositionanddidn’twanttohang

yououttodry.’Thechamberofcom-

mercehadtobackdownandretreatina

Republican-dominatedlegislature.They

couldn’tkillthebill.I saidtomyself, ‘OK,

that’sa watershedmoment.’”

Thatyear,Pearce,bythena state

senator,becametheleadsponsorofa

sweepingimmigrationbilldraftedby

KrisKobach,therestrictionistlawpro-

fessorandfutureKansaspoliticianand

Trumpally,thatrequiredpolicetoask

aboutthelegalstatusofanyonetheysus-

pectedmightbeinthecountryillegally—a

measureplainlyaimedatHispanics.The

bill,knownasS.B.1070,gainednotori-

etyandhelpedpushtheissueofimmi-

grationtothecenterofArizonapolitics.

It becamea vehicleforcharismatichard-

rightpopulistslikePearceandArpaioto

seizecontroloftheRepublicanagenda.

“Youbegantoseeimmigrationasthe

mainissueinjustabouteveryRepublican

primaryrace,whetherornottheoffice

hadanythingtodowithimmigration,”

Adamssays.“Youhadtodealwithit,

whetheryouwantedtoornot.Ifyou

werenotcloselyalignedwiththePearce

view,youwerelikelynotgoingtowin.”

OnMarch 27,2010,a 58-year-old

rancher namedRobert Krentz who

hadcomplained aboutillegalimmi-

grantswasfoundshottodeathonhis

propertyalongtheU.S.-Mexicoborder,

apparentlybymembersofa drugcartel.

Krentz’smurderdrewnationalatten-

tion,particularlyinconservativeoutlets

suchasFoxNews.WithArizona’secon-

omydeepinrecessionfollowingthe

financialcrisis,publicangerexploded.

“Wehadissuesinthestatewithreve-

nues,and[Krentz’smurder]becamethe

perfectstormtofuelanti-immigration

sentiment inArizona,” Adams says.

“Youhadpeoplewhowereeconom-

icallyfrustrated,whosawtheirlives

beingruinedbecauseoftheeconomic

collapse, and now here was Russell