37BLOOMBERG BUSINESSWEEK- PLACES
rightnowarejustlikethesuburbsof
DenverandLosAngeles—they’veturned
againsttheRepublicanParty,”saysSteve
Bannon,whoranTrump’s 2016 presi-
dentialcampaign.
Strategistsinbothpartiessaymore
andmoresuburbanvotershavebecome
exhaustedwithwhattheyfeelarethe
extremeviewsandmisalignedpriori-
tiesexhibitedbyRepublicanpoliticians
inArizonaandWashington.“There’sa
politicalrealignmentgoingonwherethe
modernRepublicanParty,particularlyas
it’stiedtoTrump,hasbecomeanathema
tocollege-educatedsuburbanites,espe-
ciallywomen,”saysLongwell,theGOP
strategist.“They’rewatchingwhat’shap-
pening,andthey’rerealizing ‘Oh, this
isn’twhatI want.’”
Attheballotbox,thesevotershave
sentanunmistakablemessage:We’re
throughwiththis.Afterlosinghisjobof
twodecadesasMaricopaCountysheriff
in2016,Arpaioattempteda comebackin
2018 andfellshort.Thisyearheranonce
againanddidn’tevenmakeit outofthe
GOPprimary.InAugust,aftervoters
rejectedhimforthethirdtimeinfour
years,likelyendinghispoliticalcareer,
ArpaiotoldtheNewYorkTimes, “They
weretiredofmeandtiredofmyoffice.”
Allsignsindicate they were tired of his
politics,too.
Arpaiowasa forerunnertoTrump—
someonewhomTrumppubliclycham-
pioned bypardoninghisconviction
forcriminalcontemptformistreating
immigrants.Hisdecisiverejectionby
MaricopaCountyvotersis anominous
signforthepresident’s hopes of winning
a second term.
It’shardtofindsomeonemoreinvested
inunderstandingandmotivatingthese
discontentedvotersthanLongwell.A life-
longconservativeandveteranRepublican
strategist,shewasappalledbyTrump’s
victoryandquicklyfellinwiththe“Never
Trump”Republicansdeterminedtooust
him.Forseveralyearsshe’scrisscrossed
thecountryconductingfocusgroupsof
suburbanwomeninbattlegroundstates
whovotedforTrump,tryingtounder-
standhowtheymight be persuaded to
voteforBiden.
Recently, over Zoom, she con-
ductedtwofocusgroupswithArizona
women who supported Trump in 2016
buthadgrowndisillusioned withhis
performance.Longwellwantedtoknow
why.Severalthingsjumpedout.Onewas
hishandlingoftheCovid-19crisis,which
cameinforwitheringcriticism.“Instead
ofrunningforoffice,heneedstoberun-
ningthiscrisisandrunningthecountry—
andheneedstoputa damnmaskon!”
declaredPaula,a volublegrandmother
marriedtoa policeofficer.
Longwell asked who else among
the groupsupported mask-wearing?
Everyoneansweredintheaffirmative.
Another complaint surrounded
theconfusionoverrulesandsafety.At
Trump’s behest, Arizona’s governor
hadbeenquicktoreopentheeconomy,
whichledtoa waveofCovid-19deaths.
Noonewasconfidentthedangerhad
passed.“Everythingfeelssounsafeand
uncertain,”saidLisa,a motherofyoung
twins.“Myhairdresseropenedbackup
witha lotmoreguidelinesandcautions
thantherestaurantsdid.I wishtherewas
moredirectioncomingfromthetop.”
“Trump disregarding what the
scientists say is ridiculous,” added
Wendy, a painter’s assistant. “He
doesn’tseemtolistentothe experts in
hisowngovernment.”
Another unifyingtraitamong the
women was their visceral antipathy
toward Hillary Clinton—feelingsthat
didn’tseemtoextendtoBiden.Inone
panel,strongdoubtsdidemergeabout
theformervicepresident’smentalfit-
ness.“Trumpis a bully,whereasBiden
hasa physicaldisability,”saidValerie,an
administrativeassistant,whoincorrectly
believedthatthevicepresident’sstutter
wasevidenceofadvanceddementia.
Butformostofthepanelistsopento
votingforhim—roughlyhalf—Bidenreg-
isteredmainlyasanacceptablemecha-
nismforremovingTrump.“Idon’tlove
theoptionofBidenasourpresident,”
saidRorey,a psychologistandregistered
Republican,“butI likeit better than I like
theoptionofTrump.”
Probingdeeper,Longwellsteeredthe
conversationtowhathadfirstsoured
thewomenonTrump.Manysaidthey
hadalwaysdisapprovedofhisbehav-
iorbutvotedforhimanywayinthe
expectationthathewouldgrowonce
inoffice.Noonebelievedhe’ddone
so—and the womenmost criticalof
Trump felt betrayed and disgusted forhavingentrustedhimwiththeirvote.
“FromthetimeI turned18,I’dalways
been aregistered Republican,” said
Paula,thegrandmother.“I’dnevervoted
fora Democrat.SinceI votedforTrump,
I’vebecomesoupsetby howhehas
engagedwiththeotherside,withother
people,[that]I’vechangedmypartyaffil-
iationtoDemocrat.I hadvotedforhim
becauseI’ma Republican—orI was.I’d
alwaysvotedRepublican.But I can’t be
a partytothisanymore.”
ThebackdropofArizona’srecent
history,too,plainlyinformedsomeof
theunhappinesstowardTrump.Most
ofthepanelistsweremothersorgrand-
mothers.Severalwereteachers.Many
resideinMaricopaCounty.Theywere
thesortofpeoplelikelytogeta door
knock from Sean Bowie, to betar-
getedby bothparties,andmaybeto
havealreadydefectedtoa Democrat.
In2018,exitpollsshowedthat16%of
Republicanwomencrossedovertohelp
electKyrstenSinemaasArizona’s first
Democraticsenatorsince1995.
Trumpwas atrisk oflosingthese
women,hadalreadylostseveralofthem.
Intheireyes,hehadmorphedfroman
outsideranda businessmanwhocould
shakeuppolitics—fixthebigproblems
that Washingtonwouldn’t—to a self-
interesteddemagoguewhosetarget was
alltoodisappointinglyfamiliar.
Whentheconversationturnedtoval-
ues,Lisa,themotherofyoungtwins,
who’dvowedtoopposeTrump,sud-
denlyinterjectedanimpassionedindict-
mentofherparty’sevolution.“Over
theyears,theRepublicanshavetaken
sucha strongstanceonsomethingsI’m
reallyagainstthatit’sreallytarnishedmy
viewoftheRepublicanParty,”shesaid.
“Immigrationis a hugeoneforme.The
Hispanicpopulationis a hugepartofhow
ourcountryruns.Theseblanketstate-
mentsofdeportationsanddividingfam-
ilies,thewaywe’vedonethat—that’s been
heartbreakingtowatch.”
TheotherwomenonLisa’spanelnod-
ded.Shepaused,andthenkeptgoing,
perfectly articulating whyMaricopa
Countyandsuburbslikeit areinsuch
rapidtransitionandpoisedtodecidethe
election.“Idon’tnecessarilyagreefull-
heartedlywiththeDemocraticParty,”she
said.“ButI’malmostembarrassedtosay
that I’m a Republican anymore.” <BW>