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ELECTION 2020- THE OVAL OFFICE
Fora countrythatis losinga war,theU.S.is havinga strange
election.OnehundredandeightythousandAmericanshave
diedfromCovid-19—morethandoublethenumberwhoper-
ishedinVietnam,Afghanistan,andIraqcombined.America
hasdonesignificantlyworsethanmostotherrichcountries,
witha mortalityrateof 500 deathspermillionpeoplecom-
paredwithjustover 100 inGermany,andfewerthan 10 deaths
permillioninChina,Japan,SouthKorea,andTaiwan.Of
course,differentcountriescountCovid-19casualtiesindif-
ferentways,butthegapis immense.If thevirusis a testof
governmenteffectiveness,thenthe world’s most powerful
countryhasfailedspectacularly.
Indeed,thecoronaviruscrisiscouldwellturnouttobea
historicalturningpoint.Fivehundredyearsago,Chinawas
thegreatestpowerontheplanet,withtheworld’sbiggest
capitalcityandbest-rungovernment.TheWestthenroseby
masteringstatecraft—firstinEurope’scompetingnation-states,
andthenintheU.S.Asthe1960sopened,Americawasaim-
ingtoputa manonthemoon,whilemillionsofChinesewere
dyingofstarvation.Eversincethatdecade,Westerngovern-
mentshaveossifiedwhileAsiangovernmentshavecaughtup,
andinmanycasesovertakentheWest.Theaveragecitizen
is notonlysaferfromCovid-19inSingapore,SouthKorea,or
TaiwanthanintheU.S.—theyalsoenjoy better health and send
theirchildrentobetterschools.
SoCovid-19is a wake-upcallfortheWest.Theencouraging
newsis thattheU.S.hasreinventeditselfbefore.A reformed
AmericacouldleadtheWestagain;butif Washingtonsnoozes,
it couldfollowthewayofotherempiresthatcrumbled,nota-
blyRomeandAthens(which gave way to autocratic Sparta in
thewakeofa plague).
Giventhesizeofthechallenge,thepresidentialelec-
tionseemsstrangelyirrelevant.Bothpartiesarestuckina
pre-Covidmindset:TheRepublicanscontinuetoclaimgov-
ernmentagenciesarea wealth-destroyingencumbrance,
whiletheDemocratsremainweddedtopublic-sectorunions.
Bothpartiesarerunningcampaignsbasedonscapegoating,
notstructuralreform.PresidentTrump’sstrategyis toblame
ChinaforAmerica’sproblems.ThestrategyofDemocrats and
theirnominee,JoeBiden,is toblameTrump.
Butdon’tbefooled:ChinaisnottoblameforAmerica’s
failings,manyofwhicharestructural.AndTrumpdidnot
inventa health-caresystemthatis skewedtowardelectivesur-
geryforrichpatients,nordidpolicestartbecomingbrutalon
his watch. America’s schools have underperformed for years.Trustingovernmenthasbeencrumbling for decades (like the
nation’sroadsandbridges).
Ofcourse,Americahasmanystrengths,notleastSilicon
Valley,WallStreet,andHollywood.Butthevibrancyofitspri-
vatesectoronlydemonstratesjusthowfaritspublicsectorhas
slipped.IntheageofAmazon,Facebook,andGoogle,much
ofthefederalgovernmentlivesintheIndustrialAge,and
someofit furtherback.TheDepartmentofAgriculturestill
employs100,000peoplespreadoutacross4,500locations—and
Americanstudentsstilltakelong,knowledge-destroying sum-
merholidayssotheycangoandworkontheharvest.
Americangovernmentneedsa farbiggeroverhaulthan
anythingthecandidateofeitherpartyis considering.Toimag-
inewhata realreformerwoulddo,conductthefollowing
thoughtexperiment:Reachbackintothegreateraofgovern-
mentreforminthe19thcentury,resurrectthatera’stwomost
formidableEnglish-speakingpoliticians,AbrahamLincoln
andWilliamGladstone(whowasfourtimesprimeministerof
Britainwhenit wasthemostpowerfulcountryintheworld),
fusethemtogether,andputthemintheWhite House on a plat-
formofreformingAmericangovernment.
WhatwouldPresidentBillLincolndo?
Ournewpresidentwouldcombinethebestofhistwo
antecedents.Neither manwasperfect—especiallywhen
young—butonceinpowertheyshoweda willingnesstocleanse
government.From“thePeople’sWilliam”(asGladstonewas
known),BillLincolninheritsa drivetodirectresourcesaway
fromtheOldCorruptionofspecialintereststowardthose
whoreallyneedthem.From“HonestAbe,”hegetsa desire
tounitehiscountryandridit ofthescourgeofracialinjus-
tice.Bothmenbelievedinimprovingthelotofordinary
people—especiallythrougheducation,buttheyalsohated
taxes.PresidentBillLincolncouldbeeithera Republican
ora Democrat—heis botha “left-wing”socialreformerand
a “right-wing”smallgovernmentmanwhobelievesinself-
reliance.Heis abovealla patriotwhois terrifiedby the way
thattheU.S.is fallingbehindauthoritarianChina.
Havingpreparedforofficenotbyrote-learningpartisan
talkingpointsbutbystudyingtheplacesthatworkbetter
(bothothergovernmentsandtheprivatesector),PresidentBill
Lincolnwouldpursuethefollowing 12 reforms.Someinvolve
moregovernment,butoverall,wewouldhavea muchsmaller,
smarterstatethatprovidedmoreprotectiontotheneedy.These
reformsareallbasedonwhatalreadyworkselsewhere,sothe
barriers to implementing them are political, not practical.- Build resilience
TheobviousplaceforBillLincolnto
startisbydealingwiththecomplete
lackofpreparednessforthevirus.The
U.S.waswarned:Covid-19wasthethird
outbreakofa coronavirusthiscentury,
afterSARS (2003)andMERS (2012).
PresidentBillClintoncreateda national
pharmaceutical stockpile, but sup-
plies were allowed to dwindle. In 2018,TrumpdissolvedtheNationalSecurity
Council’s“pandemicpreparedness”
team.TheCentersforDiseaseControl
andPreventionwereunderfunded.
Thesemistakesneedtoberectified,
butsmartly.Ratherthanbuildingup
centralstockpilesofmedicalsupplies,
BillLincolncouldcopythecheaper,
moreflexibleSwisssystem,whereeach
employerisresponsibleforkeeping
up-to-datekitsforitsworkers.Hewould
also ask himself: Where else is Americaunprepared to protect its citizens
againstcatastrophe?
Oneobviousareais climatechange:
Althoughtheexactnatureofthethreat
is debated,thedangerthata warmercli-
mateposes(notleastinpartsoftheU.S.)
is sogreatthatit is foolishnottotakeout
insurance.Thecheapestpremiumsare
multilateralones:Americawillgetmore
protectionthrougha global-warming
agreementthanit everwillunilaterally.
But Bill Lincoln could still act at home.