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Most confirmed coronavirus cases are
now in younger people in an “extra-
ordinary” shift that has raised hopes
that deaths can be kept low without
lockdowns.
Two thirds of confirmed infections
are in the under-40s while numbers in
older people have fallen sharply, a
Times analysis of Public Health
England figures reveals.
A fifth of cases are in people over 50,
compared with three quarters in the
spring. Cases in those over 80 account
for 3 per cent of the total, down from
28 per cent in March.
The need for further restrictions
could be reduced as many older people
appear to be voluntarily shielding. This
allows younger people who are less
badly affected by Covid to return to
work, experts suggested.
One government adviser said that a
Swedish-style strategy of keeping
workplaces and hospitality open while
advising older people to take greater
precautions could help Britain to get
through the winter.
While the new figures can be attrib-
uted in part to increased testing in
people with milder symptoms, experts
said that there had been a significant
shift in infection rates among younger
people as they took advantage of lock-
down easing. The peak age range for
Chris Smyth Whitehall Editor
Sam Joiner Head of Data
SATURDAY
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Virus shifts
to young as
lockdown
fears ease
Call for normality with most cases in under-40s
infections is now in the 20s, having
been in the 80s until early June when
outbreaks in care homes and hospitals
during the start of the pandemic began
to be restricted.
Mark Woolhouse of the University of
Edinburgh, who sits on the govern-
ment’s SPI-M modelling group, said
that “the epidemic is starting to divide”
by age. “There are hints from the
behavioural data that younger adults
are embracing the exit from lockdown
more enthusiastically than older
people,” he said, suggesting that older
adults were “shielding themselves”.
Ministers have cautioned against
plans in which individuals would be
asked to shield to different degrees
based on their age. They are concerned
that if infections rise in the young they
will spill over to more vulnerable
people eventually.
However, Professor Woolhouse
argued: “People have worked out who’s
at risk and they’re acting on it. Govern-
ment and local authorities may not
need to be that authoritarian about this.
Maybe what people need is advice. It’s
possible that would be enough to damp
down many local outbreaks.”
He said that “we don’t have to panic
now and maybe we can be more meas-
ured in our response”, including intro-
ducing a policy of protecting older
people while allowing others to
continue normal life. The Office for
Continued on page 2, col 5September 5 2020 | thetimes.co.uk | No 73257