New York Magazine - USA (2020-09-14)

protection to include pretty much anything that he or anyone in the

executive branch has ever done. William Consovoy, one of Trump’s

lawyers, famously argued in federal court that even if Trump

gunned someone down in the street while he was president, he

could not be prosecuted for it while in office. Although the courts

have repeatedly ruled against such sweeping arguments, Trump

will continue to claim immunity from the judicial process after he

leaves office—a surefire delaying tactic. “If federal charges were ever

brought, it is unlikely that a trial would be scheduled or start any-

time in the foreseeable future,” says Timothy W. Hoover, president

of the New York State Association of Criminal Defense Lawyers. By

the time any federal charges come to trial, Trump is likely to be

eithersenileordead.Evenif hebroke thelawaspresident,the

experts agree,hemay wellgetawaywithit.

ut federalchargesaren’tthelikeliestwaythatThe

Peoplev.DonaldJ. Trumpwillplay out.Statelaws

aren’t subject topresidentialpardons,andthey cover

a hostofcrimesbeyondthosecommittedintheWhite

House.Whenit comestocharginga formerpresident,

stateattorneysgeneralandcounty prosecutorscango

placesa U.S.Attorneycan’t.

Accordingtolegalexperts,themanmost likelytodragTrump

intocourtis thedistrictattorneyforManhattan,CyrusVanceJr.It’s

a surprisingscenario,givenVance’s well-deservedreputationas

someonewhohasgoneeasyontherichandfamous.Aftertaking

officein 20 10,hesoughttoreduceJeffreyEpstein’sstatusasa sex

offender, droppedaninvestigationintowhetherIvankaTrumpand

DonaldTrumpJr. hadcommittedfraudinthemarketingofthe

TrumpSoho,andinitiallydecidednottoprosecuteHarveyWein-

steindespitesolidevidenceofhissex crimes.“He hasa reputation

forbeingparticularlycautiouswhenit comestogoingafterrich

people,becauseheknowsthatthosearetheoneswhocanaffordthe

reallyformidablelawfirms,”saysVictoriaBassetti,a fellowat the

BrennanCenterforJusticewhoservedontheteamoflawyersthat

oversawtheSenate impeachmenttrialof BillClinton.“Andlike most

prosecutors,Vanceis exceptionallyprotectiveofhiswin-lossrate.”

Butit wasVancewhosteppedupwhenthefederal caseagainst

Trumpfaltered.“He’sa politician,” observesMartinSheil,a for-

merIRScriminalinvestigator.“He’sgothisfingerup.He knows

whichwaythewind’s blowing,andheknowsthewindinNew

Yorkis blowingagainst Trump.It’sinhispoliticalinterest tojoin

thatbandwagon.”

Lastyear, afterU.S.AttorneysintheSouthernDistrictdropped

theirinvestigationintothehushmoney that TrumphadpaidStormy

Daniels,Vancetookupthecase.Suspectingthatl’affaireStormy

mightprovetobepartof a largerpatternof shadydealings,hisoffice

starteddiggingintoTrump’sfinances.What Vanceis investigating,

accordingtocourtfilings,is evidenceof“extensiveandprotracted

criminalconductat theTrumpOrganization,”potentiallyinvolving

bankfraud,taxfraud,andinsurancefraud.TheNewYorkTimeshas

detailedhowTrumpandhisfamilyhavelongfalsifiedrecordsto

avoidtaxes,andduringtestimonybeforeCongressin 20 19,Trump’s

longtimefixerMichaelCohenstatedthat Trumphadinflatedthe

valueofhisassets toobtaina bankloan.

Crucially, alloftheseallegedcrimesoccurredbeforeTrumptook

office.Thatmeansnoclaimsofexecutiveprivilege wouldapplyto

anychargesVancemightbring,andnopresidentialpardoncould

makethemgo away.A wholeslew of potentialobjectionsanddelays

wouldberuledoutrightoffthebat. What’smore,thealleged

offensestookplacelessthansixyearsago, withinthestatuteof limi-

tationforfraudinNewYork.Vance,inotherwords,is freeto go after

Trumpnotasa crookedpresidentbutasa commoncrookwho

happenedtogetelectedpresident.Andthefact that hehasbeen

pursuingthesecaseswhileTrumpis presidentis a signthat hewon’t

You might think, given all the crimes Trump has bragged about
committing during his time in office, that the primary path to pros-
ecuting him would involve the U.S. Justice Department. If Joe
Biden is sworn in as president in January, his attorney general will
inherit a mountain of criminal evidence against Trump accumu-
lated by Robert Mueller and a host of inspectors general and con-
gressional oversight committees. After the DOJ’s incoming leader-
ship is briefed on any sensitive matters contained in the evidence,
federal prosecutors will move forward with their investigations of
Trump “at the fastest pace they can,” says Mary McCord, a former
deputy assistant attorney general.
They’ll have plenty of potential charges to choose from. Both
MuellerandtheSenate IntelligenceCommittee—aRepublican-led
panel—haveextensivelydocumentedhowTrumpcommitted
obstructionofjustice(18U.S.Code§ 73),liedtoinvestigators(18
U.S.Code§ 1001),andconspiredwithRussianintelligencetocom-
mitanoffenseagainst theUnitedStates(18U.S.Code§ 371).All
threecrimescarrya maximumsentenceof fiveyearsinprison—per
charge.Accordingtolegalexperts,federalprosecutorscouldbe
readytoindictTrumpononeormoreofthesefeloniesasearlyas
thefirst quarterof2021.
ButprosecutingTrumpforany crimeshecommittedaspresi-
dentwouldfacetwosignificantandperhapsfatalhurdles.First, on
hiswayoutofoffice,Trumpcoulddecidetopreemptivelypardon
himself.“I wouldn’t besurprisedif heissuesa broad,sweepingpar-
donforanyU.S.citizenwhowasa subject, a target,ora personof
interestoftheMuellerinvestigation,”saysNormEisen,whoserved
ascounseltoHouseDemocratsduringTrump’simpeachment.
Sincescholarsaredividedonwhethera self-pardonwouldbecon-
stitutional,what happensnextwoulddependalmost entirelyon
whichjudgeruledontheissue.“Onejudge mightsay, ‘Sorry, presi-
dentialpardonsis somethingtheConstitutiongrantsexclusivelyto
thepresident,soI’mgoingtodismissthis,’ ” saysGershman.
“Anotherjudge mightsay, ‘No, thepresidentcan’t pardonhimself.’ ”
Eitherway, thecasewouldalmost certainlywindupgettingliti-
gatedalltheway totheSupremeCourt, perhapsmorethanonce,
causinga longdelay.
Evenif thecourtsultimatelyruleda self-pardonunconstitu-
tional,anotherbighurdlewouldremain:Trump’s claimsthat
“executiveprivilege”barsprosecutorsfromobtainingevidenceof
presidentialmisconduct.Theprovisionhastraditionallybeenlim-
itedtoshieldingdiscussionsbetweenpresidentsandtheiradvisers
fromexternalscrutiny. ButTrumphasattemptedtoexpandthe

34 newyork| september14–27, 2020

Vance is free

to go after Trump

not as a crooked

pr esidentbut

as a common crook

who happened to

be comepresident.

B