tors working with the Manhattan DA to obtain personal and busi-
ness tax returns that are material to their inquiry. But issuing a
subpoena to Trump’s accountants may have been a way to signal to
them that they could face criminal charges themselves unless they
cooperate in the investigation.
Once indicted, Trump would be arraigned at New York Criminal
Court,a towering Art Deco building at 100 Centre Street. Since a
formerpresident with a Secret Service detail can hardly slip away
unnoticed, he would likely not be required
to post bail or forfeit his passport while
awaiting trial. His legal team, of course,
would do everything it could to draw out
the proceedings. Filing appeals has always
been just another day at the office for
Trump, who, by some estimates, has faced
more than 4,000 lawsuits during the
course of his career. But this time,his legal
liability would extend to numerous other
state and local jurisdictions, which will
also be building cases against him.“There’s
like 1,037 other things where, if anybody
put what he did under a microscope, they
would probably find an enormousamount
of financial improprieties,” says Scott Sha-
piro, director of the Center for Law and
Philosophy at Yale University.
Even accounting for legal delays, many
experts predict that Trump would go to
trial in Manhattan by 2023. The pro-
ceedings would take place at the New
York State Supreme Court Building.
Assuming that the judge was prepared
for an endless barrage of motions and
objections from Trump’s defense team,
the trial might move quite quickly—no
longer than a few months, according to
some legal observers. And given the con-
victions that have been handed down
against many of Trump’s top advisers,
there’s reason to believe that even pro-
Trump jurors can be persuaded to con-
vict him. “The evidence was overwhelm-
ing,” concluded one maga supporter who
served on the jury that convicted Paul
Manafort, Trump’s former campaign
chairman. “I did not want [him] to be
guilty. But he was, and no one is above
the law.”
Trump’s conviction would seal the
greatest downfall in Americanpolitics
since Richard Nixon. Unlike his associ-
ates who were sentenced to prison on
federal charges, Trump would not be
eligible for a presidential pardon or
commutation, even from himself. And
while his lawyers would file every appeal
theycanthinkof, none of it would spare Trump the indignity of
imprisonment.Unlike the federal court system, which often
allowsprisonersto remain free during the appeals process, state
courtstendtowaste no time in carrying out punishment. After
someoneis sentenced in New York City, their next stop is Rikers
Island.Oncethere, as Trump awaited transfer to a state prison,
themanwho’d treated the presidency like a piggy bank would
receiveyetanother handout at the public expense: a toothbrush
andtoothpaste,bedding, a towel, and a green plastic cup. ■be intimidated by the stature of the office after Trump leaves it.
In writing up an indictment against Trump, Vance’s team could
try to string together a laundry list of offenses in hopes of present-
ing an overwhelming wall of guilt. But that approach, experts
warn, can become confusing. “A two- or three-count indictment
is easier to explain to a jury,” says Ilene Jaroslaw, a former assistant
U.S. Attorney. “If they think the personhadcriminalintent,it
doesn’t matter if it’s two counts or 20 counts,inmost cases,
because the sentence will be the same.”
There are two main charges that Vance
is likely to pursue. The first is falsifying
business records (N.Y. Penal Law§
17 5.10). During Cohen’s trial, federal
prosecutors filed a sentencing memoran-
dum that explained how the Trump
Organization had mischaracterized
hush-money payments as “legal expenses”
in its bookkeeping. Under New York law,
falsifying records by itself is only a misde-
meanor, but if it results in the commis-
sion of another crime, it becomes a felony.
And false business records frequently
lead to another offense: tax fraud (N.Y.
Tax Law § 1806).
If Trump cooked his books, observes
Sheil, that false information would essen-
tially “flow into the tax returns.” The first
crime begets the second, making both
th e bookkeeper and the tax accountant
liable. “Since you have several folks
involved,” Sheil says, “you could either
bring a conspiracy charge, maximum
sentence five years, or you could charge
each individual with aiding and abetting
the preparation of a false tax return, with
a max sentence of three years.”
To build a fraud case against Trump,
Vance subpoenaed his financial records.
But those records alone won’t be enough:
To secure a conviction, Vance will needto
convince a jury not only that Trump
cheated on his taxes but that he intended
to do so. “If you just have the documents,
the defense will say that defendant didn’t
have criminal intent,” Jaroslaw explains.
“I call it the ‘I’m an idiot’ defense: ‘I made
a mistake. I didn’t mean to do anything.’”
Unfortunately for Trump, both Cohen
and his longtime accountant, Allen Weis-
selberg, have already signaled their will-
ingness to cooperate with prosecutors.
“What’s great about having an accoun-
tant in the witness stand is that theycan
tell you about the conversation they had
with the client,” Jaroslaw says.Through appeals, Trump has managedtodragoutthebattleover
his tax returns. The case has gone all theway totheSupremeCourt,
back down to the district court, and backuptotheappealscourt.
But Trump has lost at every stage, andit appearsthat hisappeals
could be exhausted this fall. Once Vancegetsthetaxreturns,Eisen
estimates, he could be ready to indict Trumpasearlyasthesecond
quarter of 2021.
Sheil, for one, believes Vance may alreadyhaveTrump’sfinancial
records. It’s routine procedure, he notes,forcriminaltaxinvestiga-september 14–27, 2020 | new york 35FROM WORLD LEADER TO
CONVICTED FELON
PHOTOGRAPHS: STEFANO PORTA/EPA/SHUTTERSTOCK (BERLUSCONI); SEONGJOON CHO/BLOOMBERG VIA GETTY IMAGES (GEUN-HYE) EBRAHIM HAMID/AFP VIA GETTY IMAGES (AL-BASHIR)
ParkGeun-hye|Pr esidentof SouthKorea
Convicted: 2018 Crimes:Bribery, extortion(^) Omar al-Bashir | President of Sudan
Convicted: 2019 Crime: Money laundering
(^) Silvio Berlusconi | Prime minister of Italy
Convicted: 2012 Crime: Tax fraud