8 | New Scientist | 3 October 2020IT IS no shock that many European
countries are again facing rising
coronavirus cases – this is exactly
what researchers anticipated.
Modelling in March by Mark
Woolhouse at the University
of Edinburgh, UK, suggested
that a two-month UK lockdown
would lead to low cases and
an imperceptible rise over the
summer before new measures
were required at the end of
September. Which is roughly what
happened. Other models foresaw
similar patterns. “I’m not claiminga prediction, but it’s a scenario that
was predictable,” says Woolhouse.
The speed and size of the wave
in Europe has been a surprise
though. “Every infectious disease
epidemiologist has been
expecting a big increase, but it’s
been bigger and sooner than most
of us would have expected,” says
Paul Hunter at the University ofEast Anglia, UK. While we don’t
know how big the epidemic will
get this time round in the UK,
he says it will probably dwarf the
one in March and April. Deaths
may be lower this time, Hunter
adds, due to a higher proportion
of younger people being affected
and better treatments.
The key question now is
whether second national
lockdowns are inevitable and, if so,
will they differ from the first time?
Israel is the only high-income
country to have begun a full
national second lockdown. It
started on 18 September, with a
further tightening of restrictions
a week later. It is too soon to know
the impact of this lockdown.
Several countries, including
Australia and the UK, have opted
for local lockdowns as cases rise.
On 22 September, England stopped
far short of a second national
lockdown, instead announcing
modest measures around pub
closing times and numbers at
weddings. UK Prime Minister
Boris Johnson made it clear that
he didn’t want a full lockdown,but didn’t rule one out.
The severity of a second
lockdown may depend on how
well countries managed their
first one. The UK’s initial peak
lasted longer than those in many
other countries, and measures
were relaxed when cases were still
relatively high compared with
other nations, says Stephen Griffin
at the University of Leeds, UK.
“Is lockdown inevitable? It’s
inevitable if you’ve not acted
properly the first time round,”
he says. “Countries that have got
it under control from the outset –
New Zealand, Singapore, South
Korea – have not only returned to
normality far better, but also when
they’ve had another outbreak,
they’ve controlled it.”
New cases are growing much
faster in the UK, France and Spain
than in Italy and Germany. Experts
think the diverging paths are due to
differences in testing and tracing,
demographics, public healthmessaging, but also, importantly,
public behaviour and compliance
with the restrictions that
remained after lockdown eased. In
England, researchers have found
that adherence to self-isolation
guidance was “poor”, with only
a fifth of people with symptoms
fully self-isolating. Other studies
have uncovered similar behaviour.
The recent measures Johnson
announced, which also include
encouraging people to work from
home if they can, are seen by
many researchers as too little,
too late, and unlikely to do much
to prevent cases in England from
doubling every week. For example,
the 10 pm closure of pubs is so
modest a change, it is impossible
to model, says Woolhouse. “We
are approaching [more] severe
restrictions,” says Griffin.
Such restrictions may well
be more targeted than the strict
lockdowns of March, April and
May. “You can’t expect a second
lockdown to be identical to the
first, that would imply we’d learned
nothing,” says Woolhouse. It is
thought unlikely that nations will
return to the blanket instruction
of everyone staying at home aside
from essential shopping and
limited exercise outdoors.
Bans on unnecessary gathering
indoors and mixing with other
households – things Scotland
has already done – are sensible
steps, says Griffin. Hunter expects
the UK hospitality industry to
close again.
Scientists have learned that the
virus transmits poorly outdoors
and that although children do
transmit the virus, they aren’t
driving the epidemic, Hunter adds.
“The clear implication of that is
we don’t have to be too restrictive
on outdoor activities. And we
don’t need to close schools.”
While some epidemiologists
think the UK government’s“ Epidemiologists have been
expecting a big increase,
but it’s been bigger than
most of us expected”
Second wavesJONSUPE
R/AP/SHUTTER
ST
OCKHow best to lockdown again
As cases rise across western Europe, are second lockdowns inevitable
and what should they look like? Adam Vaughan reportsCoronavirus public
information messages
in Manchester, UKNews Coronavirus