A14 Y THE NEW YORK TIMES NATIONALSATURDAY, OCTOBER 10, 2020
With just three weeks to go before Election Day, and voting al-
ready underway in many states, President Trump’s support is falling
far behind his opponent nationally, with his behavior alienating wom-
en, seniors and suburbanites, according to new polls. The president,
eager to rejoin the campaign trail after being hospitalized with the
coronavirus, secured a doctor’s note clearing him to return to “public
engagements” as soon as Saturday. Mr. Trump is planning to host
hundreds of people on the South Lawn of the White House that day; it
would be his first in-person event since his positive coronavirus test.
The problem for Mr. Trump is that his return isn’t necessarily a
plus for him, politically. In his aggressive attacks and interruptions
during his debate with former Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. two
weeks ago, the president appeared to only further alienate undecided
voters, according to focus groups and polls. The president attempted
to show his supporters that everything was fine in two phone inter-
views on Thursday. But, he called for his political enemies to be in-
dicted and later sounded raspy when he called into Sean Hannity’s
show Thursday night. He spent over two hours on the phone with
right-wing radio host Rush Limbaugh on Friday, and he wasn’t the one
to cut the session off.
His campaign, meanwhile, has become primarily a television
ad-buying apparatus, though it is shrinking its television spending as
it contends with cash flow issues, as it waits on the White House to
figure out when and how the president will return to the trail.At Debate, Pence Tried
To Recast His Boss
The first and only 2020 vice-
presidential debate was an exer-
cise in avoidance.
As Senator Kamala Harris of
California pushed Vice President
Mike Pence to defend the poli-
cies and tone of Mr. Trump, Mr.
Pence sought to recast the presi-
dent as someone different from
the one who many American
voters see. In Mr. Pence’s telling,
Mr. Trump has taken the threat
of the virus seriously from its
outset. He ignored questions
about how the president has cast
doubt on the electoral process
and, during the last presidential
debate, refused to denounce
white supremacy.
The Trump campaign had
hoped to capitalize on what they
saw as a strong performance by
the vice president. But less than
48 hours later, Mr. Trump had
already moved the attention
back onto himself.
Mr. Trump’s desire to hold
campaign rallies next week and
the administration’s refusal to
answer basic questions about his
health overshadowed Mr.
Pence’s efforts to put a more
empathetic spin on the adminis-
tration’s coronavirus response.White House Out Sick,
But Still on Message
In Trumpworld, testing positive
for the coronavirus was no rea-
son for the president’s top surro-
gates and spokesmen to halt
their regular appearances on
television, the key to relevancy
in the president’s universe, or
change their talking points aboutthe administration’s response.
Kayleigh McEnany, the White
House press secretary, has been
appearing on Fox News from her
home, where she is isolating
from the rest of her family.
“This was a novel virus that
came in from China,” Ms. McE-
nany told Mr. Hannity, the Fox
News host, this week. “No one
had seen it. There were no tests.
There were no therapeutics. In
short order, President Trump
developed them.”
Ronna McDaniel, the chair-
woman of the Republican Na-
tional Committee, appeared on
Fox News to criticize the debate
commission for “not following
the science” by deciding to hold a
virtual debate. “The C.D.C. has
said you’re not shedding live
virus 10 days after diagnosis,”
she said, speaking from her
home where she, too, is recover-
ing from the virus.- Appearing on TV while sick is a
way to play down the virus: Surro-
gates who appear on television
even after having tested positive
were the living embodiment of
the president’s edict, “don’t let it
dominate your life.” By appear-
ing on television, those surro-
gates were embodying the presi-
dent’s false claim that Covid-
was akin to contracting the flu.- Contracting the virus didn’t
change anyone’s view of it: Even
as the virus has infected many
in the West Wing, the talking
points have remained virtually
unchanged. If anything, some
Trump advisers worried that the
president’s rhetoric about the
virus had become more danger-
ous since his own diagnosis, as
he has told people the virus was
not something to fear. None of
the newly infected appeared
chastened by the experience of
getting the virus, themselves.
Even friends of Chris Christie,
the former New Jersey gover-
nor who has been hospitalized
for a week, said he was doing
just fine, swatting away any
questions about the state of his
health.
Will They Pack Court?
Why They Won’t Say
The overarching philosophy of
Mr. Biden’s campaign has been
to keep the focus on Mr. Trump,
and specifically his handling of
the pandemic. Because of this
both Mr. Biden and his running
mate are refusing to answer a
basic policy question: are they
in favor of adding seats to the
Supreme Court?
The Democratic candidates
have both said to answer the
question would be a distraction
during a time Republicans are
seeking to push through the
Supreme Court nomination of
Judge Amy Coney Barrett. Mr.
Biden went further this week,
saying he intended to tell voters
his view on the subject after the
November election.
Here are three things you
should know about the Demo-
crats and the issue of court
packing:- Mr. Biden rejected the idea in the
primary: Mr. Biden is currently
refusing to answer a question
that he has already answered.
Before the Iowa caucuses, in an
interview with Iowa Starting
Line, Mr. Biden said court pack-
ing would be mistake. “No, I’m
not prepared to go on and try to
pack the court, because we’ll live
to rue that day,” he said at the
time. - Ms. Harris expressed some
openness: Ms. Harris, who did
more to court the party’s pro-
gressive flank in the primary
than Mr. Biden, has previously
signaled that she was weighing
the idea. When asked in March,
Ms. Harris said “We have to take
this challenge head on, and
everything is on the table to do
that.” Ms. Harris said there was
a “crisis of confidence” on the
court that Democrats have to
address. - The politics are unclear: Some
progressive groups have pushed
elected officials to answer the
question of expanding the courts
but it is unclear whether the
issue has permeated to the Dem-
ocratic base. In the short term,
Democrats are seeking to push
back on Republican attempts to
confirm Ms. Barrett for the seat
once held by Justice Ruth Bader
Ginsburg. Democrats want to
correct what they feel was a
“stolen” seat when President
Barack Obama was blocked from
filling the open seat after Justice
Antonin Scalia died in 2016.
Instead, it was filled by Mr.
Trump who nominated Justice
Neil Gorsuch. At this point, it is a
Washington power play, not a
clear electoral issue.
Also This Week
- The R.N.C. invested $60 million
in a digital get-out-the vote cam-
paign this year. That’s a $57.
million jump from 2016, empha-
sizing that the party recognizes
mail-in voting is a necessary
push even if the president does-
n’t think so. - Mr. Trump has counted on
veterans as well as active-duty
service members as a key slice
of his political base; in 2016,
about 60 percent voted for him.
But that support appears to have
slipped. Mr. Trump’s comments
this week suggesting Gold Star
families were to blame for his
coronavirus infection aren’t
helping. - In an effort to avoid another
2016, when Facebook was used
by Russian operatives to spread
misinformation before the elec-
tion, Mark Zuckerberg has spent
more than $5.1 billion this year
on the company’s “integrity” and
security divisions, which identify
and clamp down on interference.
This is more than Facebook’s
yearly revenue in 2012.
Disinfecting the White House briefing room after President Trump and several staff members tested positive for the coronavirus.ANNA MONEYMAKER FOR THE NEW YORK TIMESEarly voting in Des Moines on Monday. President Trump is lag-
ging far behind Joseph R. Biden Jr. in nationwide polling.KATHRYN GAMBLE FOR THE NEW YORK TIMESNEWS ANALYSISTrump’s Rush to Recover and Shore Up Support
By ANNIE KARNI and ASTEAD W. HERNDONThe Week in Numbers
The Biden campaign has now spent more than
$500 millionon ads this year. Over the last week,
the Biden campaign spent $40.3 millionon
television and radio, while the Trump campaign
spent about $23.3 million, slightly more than the
previous week, according to the ad-tracking firm
Advertising Analytics. The Trump campaign has
closed the spending gap on Facebook, spending $5.
millionon the platform over the past week, while
the Biden campaign spent $5.9 millionin the same
period.
........................................................................................................................................
The polling picture for President Trump grew
particularly dark this week, as it became clear there
was no sympathy bump after his positive
coronavirus test. A CNN poll found him trailing Joe
Biden by16 pointsamong likely voters nationwide
— his worst result of any CNN survey this year.
The poll was conducted primarily after Mr. Trump
received his virus diagnosis. Sixty-three percent of
Americans in that survey said they thought the
president had acted irresponsibly toward those
around him in handling the threat of infection.
........................................................................................................................................
A pair of New York Times/Siena College polls out
this week found Mr. Biden with a six-point lead in
Nevada and a statistically insignificant one-point
edge in Ohio, where Mr. Trump won handily four
years ago.
A Snapshot of Current Polling Averages
Exploring Electoral College Outcomes
Electoral votes counting only states where a candidate leads by 3 or more:
† Poll error in 2016 is calculated using averages of state polls conducted within three
weeks of Election Day.
Our poll averages include all polls collected by FiveThirtyEight. The estimates adjust for a variety
of factors, including whether a poll represents likely voters, whether other polls have shifted
since a poll was conducted, and whether a pollster has leaned toward one candidate in a state
or nationwide. Polls are weighted by recency, sample size, and by whether they’re conducted by
a firm with a track record of success. Source for polls: FiveThirtyEight polling database.
POLLING LEADERIF POLLS ARE AS WRONG
AS THEY WERE IN...
2016 2012United States +10 Biden +7 +
New Hampshire +10 Biden +7 +
Minnesota +10 Biden +3 +
Michigan +10 Biden +5 +
Pennsylvania +8 Biden +3 +
Wisconsin +8 Biden <1 +
Nebraska 2* +8 Biden +9 +
Nevada +7 Biden +9 +
Maine 2* +5 Biden +6 +
Arizona +5 Biden +3 +
Florida +5 Biden +2 +
North Carolina +4 Biden +1 +
Iowa +3 Biden +5 +
Ohio +2 Biden +5 +
Georgia +1 Biden <1 <
Te x a s +2 Trump +4 +
- In Maine and Nebraska, two electoral votes are apportioned to the winner of the state
popular vote, and the rest of the electoral votes are given to the winner of the popular vote in
each congressional district. (Maine has two congressional districts, and Nebraska has three.)
THE NEW YORK TIMESEstimates based on poll averages on Friday at 5:30 p.m. Eastern. Figures are rounded.
341 Biden 125 TrumpElectoral votes if polling leads translate perfectly to results (they won’t):
375 Biden 163 TrumpElectoral votes if state polls are as wrong as they were in 2016†:
319 Biden 219 TrumpState of the Race
A daily newsletter about the people, issues and ideas shaping our
political world. Sign up at nytimes.com/newslettersNEWSLETTER:ON POLITICS
Election
Nick Corasaniti, Isabella Grullón
Paz and Giovanni Russonello
contributed reporting.