The New York Times - USA (2020-10-10)

THE NEW YORK TIMES BUSINESSSATURDAY, OCTOBER 10, 2020 Y B5

TRANSPORTATION

On the desolate streets of Man-
hattan during the bleak early
days of the pandemic, Rosemary
Sigelbaum found that riding a
bicycle to work at Lenox Hill
Hospital offered a desperately
needed respite from the stress of
12-hour days witnessing the
worst of the coronavirus’s fright-
ening effects.
“It was quiet, and on my way
home it gave me time to decom-
press,” Ms. Sigelbaum said of her
commute between the Upper
East Side and her home on the
Lower East Side.
Those empty avenues of late
March have given way to the
city’s usual cacophony of traffic,
just as more people are discover-
ing the advantages of cycling to
work: no crowded subways,
buses or shared taxis. Bicycle
companies have posted out-of-
stock notices for the first time in
years. Sales in May skyrocketed
103 percent compared with a
year earlier, according to the
NPD Group, a research firm.
But as all those new bikers are
discovering the joys of cycling,
they’re also discovering the
dangers of riding on two wheels,
especially in cities.
Even before the pandemic,
bicycle fatalities in New York
nearly tripled last year, to 29,
from 10 in 2018. This year, at
least 14 people on bicycles have
been killed. With more bikes
plying the streets with cars,
buses and trucks, there’s more
pressure than ever to find ways
to make the roads safer, for ev-
eryone.
The best safety measures are
those that keep bicyclists and
motor vehicles apart, advocates
say. Many cycling advocates are
trying to capitalize on the pan-
demic popularity of bicycles to
push for more dedicated bike
lanes.
It is “the primary method of
addressing bicycle safety,” said
Kyle Wagenschutz at People for
Bikes, an advocacy group. In-
deed, cities including Milan,
Paris and New York have been
adding miles of bike lanes this
year, with more planned.
Still, bicycles and cars will
have to get along, and safety
researchers are increasingly
looking to technology for an-
swers.
Last fall in Turin — before that
area of Italy became a pandemic
hot spot — a wobbly cyclist
skirted a line of parked cars on a
jammed suburban street as a
large sedan rapidly approached
from behind. In the morning
drizzle, the driver was focused
on a four-way stop that was
coming up. Suddenly a warning
graphic flashed on a display
above the dashboard, indicating
that a bicyclist was directly
ahead, and the driver slowed to
give the rider more room.
Such encounters are part of a
future vision of bicycle-to-vehicle
communications that could help
prevent accidents. The Turin
demonstration, supported by
Fiat Chrysler and the 5G Auto-
motive Association trade group,
involved a 5G wireless program
meant to illustrate the advan-
tages of high-speed communica-
tions among cars, bicycles, traffic
systems and city infrastructure.
(This has an alphabet soup nick-
name, C-V2X, for “cellular vehi-
cle-to-everything.”)
The LINKS Foundation, a tech
company, had outfitted the demo
bicycle with a global navigation
device to determine its precise
location and a 5G transceiver to
convey that information to
nearby vehicles. The concept

envisions a future where every-

thing — literally the internet of

things — is online to create

smart roads and smart cities.

Traffic lights will see cars com-

ing, cars will see pedestrians at

intersections, and bicycles will

talk to cars.

Some cyclists already use

technology, like Garmin’s Varia

radar taillight, to warn of ap-

proaching cars, but it doesn’t

actively prevent collisions. Pe-

destrian and bicycle warning

options for cars use so-called

advanced driver assistance

safety systems. Some, like

Volvo’s collision warning feature,

will even automatically brake for

cyclists.

Such technology can reduce

crashes involving cyclists and

other so-called vulnerable road

users by up to 35 percent, said

Russ Rader of the Insurance

Institute for Highway Safety.

That’s a tremendous improve-

ment, but more can be done,

because those warning systems

rely on video cameras and radar

in the car; they cannot see

around corners. Furthermore,

camera-based systems rely on

classification programs to pick

out bicycles from what can be a

cluttered background of mail-

boxes, trees, garbage pails and

telephone poles. A bicycle-to-

vehicle system would send sig-

nals around buildings and hun-

dreds of feet up and down roads.

“The problem then is to com-

pute the probability of the cy-

clist’s path,” said Daniele Brevi, a

researcher from the LINKS

Foundation in Turin who was

running the demonstration.

Understanding the possible

trajectories of a bicycle and what

critical information needs to be

shared with nearby motorists is

essential to improving safety.

“It can’t just be, ‘Hi, I’m a

bike,’ ” said Jake Sigal, the chief

executive of Tome Software in

Detroit and one of the founding

members of the Bicycle-to-Vehi-

cle Executive Advisory Board.

The group, which includes Ford,

General Motors and Subaru as

well as bicycle companies like

Giant, Specialized and Trek, is

working to standardize what

safety information needs to be

communicated in these so-called

B2V transmissions.

It involves not only speed and

direction (is the cyclist going the

wrong way in a bike lane?) but

also information such as a bicy-

cle’s turning radius and maxi-

mum acceleration and braking —

all data that would help predict a

cyclist’s path. E-bikes, scooters

and single-speed bikes would

have different profiles. Smart

signs could also flash warnings

when a cyclist was present to

slow down drivers.

Mr. Sigal said the group

planned to complete several field

tests of B2V systems with Ford

by the end of the year. Re-

searchers will focus on reliability

and accuracy to ensure that the

information drivers receive is

consistent and trustworthy.

Wireless interference in urban

areas and sufficient warning

times are other critical areas of

study.

And while various wireless

systems could be used, the initial

tests are using Bluetooth, a per-

vasive wireless feature that’s

built into smartphones.

“We want it to be accessible to

people who can’t necessarily

afford a $200 bike computer,” Mr.

Sigal said. Android phones could

be used, for example, by cyclists

in conjunction with inexpensive

sensors on bicycles.

In Turin, the issue of informa-

tion overload also became appar-

ent. An occasional bike warning

on a quiet suburban street seems

reasonable enough, but a Man-

hattan avenue could generate an

overwhelming surge of warnings

and alerts. So when to warn

drivers may be just as critical as

what to warn them about.

While bike companies are keen

on finding active, high-tech solu-

tions to improve bicycle safety,

they have also put considerable

effort into passive safety meas-

ures.

“Making the bikes more visible

to vehicles is critical, and some

of that is really low tech,” said

David Devine, global product

director at Cannondale. Integrat-

ed daytime running lights and

reflective sidewall tires are ele-

ments that Cannondale has add-

ed over the years to improve

safety, he said.

Such techniques are about how

cyclists can “cut through the

visual noise of the environment,”

said Eric Bjorling, brand director

at Trek Bikes. The bike maker

has worked with researchers at

Clemson University to improve

the visibility of its daytime run-

ning lights and recommends

riders wear high-contrast cloth-

ing to stand out. The company is

also working on making helmets

more affordable.

The critical step is still to

develop a standard that bike

makers, automakers and city

planners can all use, Mr. Bjorling

said. “And if cars in the future

are going to be more autono-

mous, this is going to be needed

to help A.V.s avoid riders,” he

said, referring to autonomous

vehicles.

Protecting vulnerable road

users using networked communi-

cations is inevitable, said Patrick

Little, general manager of Qual-

comm’s automotive business. “It

will happen over the next five-

plus years.”

Ms. Sigelbaum has encoun-

tered her own challenges com-

muting on two wheels. She re-

cently broke several bones in her

hand falling off a bike, “all by

myself.”

But she added, “I’m still going

to bike to work from now on.”

Helping Bikes and Cars Share the Street

With cyclists proliferating, researchers are looking to technology that can prevent accidents.

Wheels

By JOHN R. QUAIN

Even before the pandemic, the streets of New York City were becoming more dangerous for cyclists; 29 died in accidents in 2019, compared with 10 in 2018.

BRYAN DERBALLA FOR THE NEW YORK TIMES

A demonstration of a 5G wireless program meant to illustrate the

advantages of high-speed communications among cars, bicycles, traffic

systems and city infrastructure was held last fall in Turin, Italy.

5G AUTOMOTIVE ASSOCIATION

‘It can’t just be, “Hi,

I’m a bike.”’

Jake Sigal, C.E.O. of Tome Software

and a founder of the

Bicycle-to-Vehicle Executive

Advisory Board.

103%

The growth in bicycle sales this May

compared with last May.

be worth a lot if they use them
inefficiently.
Consider Delta’s gleeful filing.
Under the heading “significant
value creation,” Delta said Amer-
ican Express customers who
used its co-branded cards made
up 22 percent of the balances
carried in 2019 by its holders of
traditional credit cards.
Please: If you need to carry a
balance on your credit card, don’t
do it with mileage cards, which
often charge dizzying interest
rates that create value for card
issuers. This is the very defini-
tion of letting the system beat
you.
Now, to the math on what a
mile might be worth. First, a
standard disclaimer: It is always
wise in this sort of exercise to
read or reread “The Contrarian’s
Guide to Frequent-Travel Plans,”
a classic 2002 column by Joe

Brancatelli, a veteran business

travel writer. In it, he likened

frequent-flier programs to “an

unregulated lottery,” where your

odds are uncertain and the rules

can change at any moment.

And second, a benchmark of

sorts: If you’re spending tens of

thousands of dollars each year

on credit cards, you can get 2

percent cash back with relative

ease on Citi and Fidelity branded

cards. That’s 2 pennies for every

dollar you spend, which means

that $50,000 in annual spending

nets $1,000.

If, instead, you’re earning a

mile for every dollar you spend

on a credit card (and some cards

can return a bit more), will those

miles be worth more than 2 cents

each when you exchange them

for “free” plane tickets or up-

grades that have an obvious cash

value?

Airlines do not want you to do

this math. Assume that $50,000

in spending yields 50,000 miles.

Can you exchange those miles

for an airline freebie that would

otherwise cost you more than

$1,000?

Often, the answer is no. Then

again, the airlines do not want

you to know this, nor do they

want to allow many people to

achieve such a favorable ex-

change rate.

Delta and United, in fact, have

done away with their award

charts altogether and instead

engage in what is known as

dynamic pricing. The price, in

miles, of the thing you want can

change from day to day. Your

cost will depend on overall de-

mand for the Hawaii ticket at

Christmas. And if pent-up de-

mand explodes once everyone

gets a vaccine jab or rapid test-

ing becomes easier and more

accurate, all the worse, poten-

tially, for the value of your now-

hoarded miles.

Historically, many people

redeem miles for free coach

tickets in the United States. If

that’s what you want, check to

see how many miles the airline is

demanding for any given trip

and then see what those miles

are worth by comparing the

quoted amount with the current

cash price.

Plenty of people don’t do that.

If they did, many of them would

find that 2 percent cash back was

worth a fair bit more than the

miles. And those cash rebates

would be available to buy tickets

in whatever class of service on

whichever airline is cheapest or

most convenient.

I ran my analysis by the trav-

el-mad points and miles editor of

The Points Guy, Ariana Arghan-

dewal, who is already back on

the road and in Turkey. She

agreed that the vast majority of

travelers would be better served

with cash-back cards.

But there are a few caveats.

Some people do travel enough —

or at least will again, at some

point — to get real value out of

elite status. And certain airline

credit cards help you qualify for

status faster, a point that Delta’s

spokeswoman emphasized when

I asked the airline for comment.

Then there are the infrequent

travelers who have a low-cost

airline card that lets them check

bags for free.

Ms. Arghandewal also men-

tioned a middle ground: Most

card issuers offer products that

hand out generic points you can

transfer to many airline pro-

grams, which can be useful if

you’ve found a carrier offering a

more-valuable-than-average free

ticket.

Still, her reading of the flurry

of fund-raising is the same as

mine. “The financial market is

placing a value on how we utilize

airline currency in an ignorant

fashion,” she said.

We should be contributing as

little as possible to the high prof-

itability of airline marketing

programs. So as some carriers

try to help themselves to taxpay-

er dollars once more — while

bragging about how we line up

like lemmings to lap up their

miles — let’s please make them

work a little harder and give

away a little more.

If Airlines’ Frequent-Flier Programs Are Winning, Someone Must Be Losing

FROM FIRST BUSINESS PAGE

If you need to carry a

monthly balance,

avoid doing it with

mileage cards.