◼ BUSINESS Bloomberg Businessweek October 12, 2020Why Black Friday Could
Be Blue
● Pandemic fears, social distancing, and job losses
may damp shoppers’ holiday madnessCovidhasalreadycosttheU.S.retailindustry
billionsofdollars.Ina normalyear,department
storesandapparelsellersgeta quarteroftheir
annualsalesinNovemberandDecember,accord-
ingtoFitchRatings.Thisyear’sfourth-quarter
shopping spree will be even more crucial; many
sales were missed when stores were closed, and
consumers refrained from buying gold necklaces,
designer bags, and other discretionary items.
Almost $122 billion in U.S. retail sales has evapo-
rated since the pandemic caused store shutdowns
in March. Sales at clothing and accessories stores
plunged 34.9% in the first eight months of 2020
from the same period in 2019, according to the
U.S. Census Bureau.Mostyears,CassandraDaviswakesupatthecrack
ofdawnonBlackFridayarmedwithabattle plan
formed with circled newspaper ads and some
online research. She warms up her car in the
Minneapolis winter for half an hour before driving
to Target, Walmart, or J.C. Penney to cash in on the
deals they’re offering. Her biggest prize in the past
decade: a large flatscreen TV she scored for $700.
In 2020 she’s not sure her tradition will survive.
“I have to think about all of the what-ifs,” 50-year-old
Davis says. “I’m really just watching the dollar even
if things are inexpensive. We still have to be careful,
because we don’t know what happens day to day
with this pandemic.”
Shoppers like Davis may be wary, but American
malls and stores are desperate to make Black Friday
happen. Traditional brick-and-mortar holiday shop-
ping has been declining for a decade as consumers
flock to e-commerce, and the Covid-19 outbreak
and recession will only hasten its fall. The U.S. retail
sector has been devastated after monthslong shut-
downsanddozensofbankruptcies,batteringthe
survivors’hopesthatshoppingpatternswouldget
backtonormalbyretail’sbusiestday.Withbarely
sevenweeksleft,merchantsarescramblingto
prepare stores and websites to make up for lost time.
The holiday playbook of opening stores right after
family Thanksgiving feasts, lining the weekend with
doorbuster sales, and cramming shops with inven-
tory and workers has been thrown out the window.
Stores will be reconfigured, with fewer racks on the
floor and registers spread farther apart. Online sales
will take center stage. Supply chains will be strained
likeneverbeforeasbusinessestrytokeepupwith
recorde-commercepurchases.
What’smore,thepandemichasmadeshoppers
dubious of going to crowded stores and left many
tight on cash after mass layoffs in most industries.
Unemployment—at 7.9% in September, more than
doublewhatit wasthistimelastyear—remainshigh,
andanotherroundofstimuluscheckshasn’tcome.
“Thiswillgodownasthemostdifficultholiday
season to prepare for, whether you’re a retailer, a
vendor, or anything in between,” says Joel Bines,
co-head of retail consulting at AlixPartners LLP.16
▼ Black Friday frenzy at
Macy’s flagship in 2018