Bloomberg Businessweek - USA (2020-10-12)

inherinboxinMay,Ostercouldn’t

possiblyrespondtoordecidewhatwas

bestforeachnewsletterreader’sunique

situation.Butshecouldsharetheeco-

nomicframeworksheuseswhenfaced

withuncertainty.Soshegottotyping:

1. Frame the question. (Clearly
   definetwoorthreeoptions,insteadof
   tryingtoevaluateinfiniteorindistinct
   possibilities.)


2. Mitigaterisk.(What’sthesafestway
   toexecutethoseoptions?)
   3.Evaluaterisk.
   4.Evaluatebenefits.(Don’toverlook
   these.)
   5.Decide.
   Thepointoftheexercise,Ostersays,
   isn’ttofeelsure,necessarily,thatthe
   decisionyoureachis therightone.That
   maybepossiblesometimes,butit’svery
   difficultnow,asresearchintothevirus
   yieldsnewandchanginginformation
   andmuchofthedatawe’dliketohave
   is unavailableorincomplete.Thegoalis
   tofeelgoodabouttheprocessyouused
   toarriveata decision,soyoucanmove
   ontothenextfireyouneedtoputout.
   The message wouldn’t have felt
   unfamiliar to anyone who’s taken
   Econ 101 or replicated Benjamin
   Franklin’shabitofstackingprosagainst
   cons.Butit strucka chord,andthepost
   soonbecameOster’smostpopular,with
   morethana half-millionviews.Asshe

oftendoes,Ostersharedthedecisions

sheandherhusbandhadmaderegard-

ingthetopicathand—“EventhoughI

knowI willbecrucified,I willtellyou,”

shewrote.Theypaida youngnanny

wholivesalonetowatchtheirkidsin

theafternoonswhenschoolsclosedin

Marchsotheycouldcontinue work-

ing,andarrangedvisitswiththegrand-

parents via socially distanced, masked

walks in the woods.

Oster is 40 and has bright eyes,

a wide smile, and straight choco-

late-brown hair that she wore for years

in a bob but now pulls back into a

“Covidponytail”aftertiringoflooking

atherselfonZoomcallsallday.Inaddi-

tiontoExpectingBetter,she’stheauthor

of2019’sCribsheet:A Data-DrivenGuide

toBetter,MoreRelaxedParenting,From

BirthtoPreschool,aninstantTimesbest-

seller.Thebookshavemadehera celeb-

rityamonga generationofwomenand

newparentslikeme,arminguswith

theabilitytomakeinformed,confident

decisions.Her writingisaccessible,

authoritative,andempathic,infused

witha self-deprecatingwit.“Lastweek

iswhenI startedtocracka bit,”she

wroteinParentDataonApril27.“Was

thatmecryingintheWholeFoodspark-

inglotlastThursday?Yes,yesit was.”

OSTER MADE HER CLASSROOM

debutasaninfantin1980,whenher

father,RayFair,heldherupLionKing-

styleina Yalelecturehall.“Ifiguredthat

sincewe’vebeentalkingaboutproduc-

tionfunctionsallsemester,you’dlike

toseetheoutput,”hetoldhisstudents,

asoneofthemrecalledintheschool’s

alumni magazine. Fair, a macro-

economist known for his presidential

predictions (he foresaw a Trump vic-

tory in 2016; he hasn’t made a 2020 call

because the pandemic has messed up

the economy and hence his model), still

teaches there. Oster’s mother, Sharon

Oster, was also a Yale economist until

retiring in 2018. She was the first woman

to gain tenure at and become dean of

the university’s School of Management.

The Oster-Fairs brought econom-

ics instruction home. Food shopping

was a lesson in opportunity cost: Time

was valuable, so Sharon faxed the gro-

cer a list instead of walking the aisles.

Fair would dismiss his children’s pleas

to switch to a shorter toll booth lane

by citing the “no arbitrage condition,”

which assumes that because everyone

is optimizing all the time, the possibility

to improve is marginal. Feminism was

demonstrated, not simply discussed.

The couplealternated nights fixing

dinner,despiteSharon’sbeinga better

cook,toshowit wasn’tsolelyawoman’s

job. Sharon didn’t change her last name

upon marrying, and she and her hus-

band flipped a coin to decide whose

Emily would take, Sharon told me, “to

let children reflect upon the nature of

patriarchal culture and society.” (For

Emily’s two younger brothers, they

alternated last names.) Emily was a

bright, driven, and bossy child, the sort

who created an algorithm to solve qua-

dratic formula problems for sixth grade

math. The teacher made her redo the

work by hand.

After graduating from boarding

school, Oster entered Harvard, think-

ing she’d major in biochemistry. That

changed after a summer working two

jobs: one in a biology lab dissecting fruit

flies and the other assisting Christopher

Avery, an economist at Harvard’s

Kennedy School, on a book about college

admissions. The purview of economics

felt broader. “I liked the idea of being

able to answer big-picture questions

about what’s going on in the world,” she

says. Avery would prove instrumental

in her personal life, too—he introduced

Oster to her now-husband, Jesse Shapiro,

alsoa Browneconomist.

AsshebeganherdoctorateatHarvard

in2003,Osterturnedtotheintersection

of economics and health. She saw an

opportunity to shed new light on the

HIV/AIDS epidemic ravaging Africa.

Oster argued that the prevalence of

other sexually transmitted diseases there

playeda largerroleinHIVtransmission

thanresearcherspreviouslythoughtand

thattreatmentwasn’tcost-effective.(The

WorldHealthOrganizationpushedback:

“Narrowcost-effectivenessarguments

sowconfusion and legitimize further

delays in providing care to the millions

nowlivingwithHIV.”)Sheusedmortality

datatopositthattheUnitedNationswas

overestimating HIV infection rates by as

40

Bloomberg Businessweek October 12, 2020

“SOMEBODY SAID TO ME RECENTLY, ‘YOU’RE THE ONLY

PERSON I LISTEN TO.’ AND I WAS, LIKE, ‘OH, MY GOD’”