Bloomberg Businessweek - USA (2020-10-12)

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BloombergBusinessweek October 12, 2020

argueinfavorofreopeningsischild
transmission.Datacollectedearlyin
thepandemicindicatedkidsweren’t
efficientvectorsofthevirus.Butrecent
studies increasingly suggestother-
wise,saysZoëHyde,seniorresearch
officerat theUniversityofWestern
Australia.Sheurgesmorecautionasa
result,sayingschoolsshouldn’treopen
untilanarea’scasecountsfallbelow
whatcontacttracingcanrapidlyhan-
dle.“It’struethatschoolclosuresare
associatedwithharm,”shetoldme.
“However,I wouldargue thatsuch

harmisfaroutweighedbytheharm
ofanunmitigatedepidemic.”Oster
remainsunswayed.Shecontinuesto
argue thatyounger childrencould
safelyreturnto schoolearlierthan
olderkids,evenincommunitieswhere
testpositivityratesexceedthe5%WHO
threshold,aslongassafetyprotocols
areinplace.Evidenceshowsthatchil-
drenrarelyfallseverelyillandareoften
asymptomatic.Theyalsobenefitmost
fromface-to-faceinstruction.
Some peopleare taken abackby
Oster’scalculations.Asymptomatickids,
Hydepointsout,“havethepotentialto
besilent spreaders.”Asoneteacher
wrotetoOsterinJuly,“Iresentmylife
beingplayedwithasif it doesn’tmatter
andallthatmattersis thechildren.”
ThewayOsterseesit,“wedoallkinds
ofthingsthatsuggestthatweallowfor
thepossibilitythatpeoplecoulddie
asa result.”Kidsattendschoolduring
fluseason,andpeopledrivecarsand
havepools—allofthatcomeswith a
riskofmortality.“Butthat’sa veryhard
argumenttomake.It’sa verycallous,
economics-ysoundingargumentabout
thevalueoflife,”shesays.“Perhapsa
morepositiveresponseis thatthereare
somereallylargebenefits.”
Theabilitytodoa truecost-benefit
analysis—forOsteroranyofus—isham-
strungbythelackofcomprehensive

infectiondatafromchild-caresettings.

SoOsterandherteamatanotherofher

projects,thewebsiteCovidExplained,

begancollectingtheirowndata.“Part

ofit is,honestly,I’mlookingtoshame

theworld,theCDC,states,whoever,who

aretellingusit’simpossibletolearnfrom

this,”shesays.“I’ma ladywitha news-

letter.Youshouldimproveyourdata-

collectionefforts.”

OSTER WAS AWAKENED AT 5 A.M.

ona recentMonday,assheis everyday,

bya vibratingbandstrappedaroundher

ankle.(Aregularalarmwoulddisturb

Shapiro,whosleepsforanotherhour.)

Shesentsomeemails,setouta plateof

fruitforthekids,andsetoffforherrun-

ningclub’stwice-weeklytrackworkout.

Sherediscoveredthesportduringthe

pandemic—“It’slikebeingbackinhigh

schoolcross-countryexceptwithmore

jointpain”—andnowrunseverydayat

6 a.m.,usingit ashertimetothink.

Aftera morningspentjugglingthe

kidsandworkandtweetinga screen-

shotshowingthatReeseWitherspoon

hadstartedfollowingher,Osterinstalled

herselfinfrontofherlaptop inher

bedroom-turned-officeat1 p.m.Rhode

IslandGovernorGinaRaimondowas

deliveringanupdateonthestatusoffall

schooling.Oster’schildrenkeptbarg-

ingin.“Youdon’tunderstand,”shetold

them.“It’svery,veryimportantthatI

watchwhatthegovernoris saying!”

Oster letout an actual cheer as

Raimondospoke:Mostpublicschools

inthestatecouldreopeninpersonon

Sept.14,andprivateschools,suchasthe

onePenelopeandFinnattend,coulddo

soimmediately.

WhenI caughtupwithOstertwo

dayslater,shewasbeaming.“Today

isamazing,”shesaid.“Finnwentto

kindergarten.”

Asthisstorywenttoprint,Rhode

Island’sschoolshadmanagedtoavoid

mass outbreaks and stay open. Many

other places haven’t been as lucky.

I’d been talking with RobertWeyant,

anepidemiologistattheUniversityof

Pittsburgh.“Itendtobeacautious

person,” he wrote in an email on

Sept.  23. “It seems like waiting to

reopenisthemoreprudentthingto

do.But wedohavea greatnatural

experimentongoing with some dis-

tricts open and some not—so we shall

see in the rather near future if opening

is a good idea.”

That same day, Oster unveiled,

witha softwarecompanyandseveral

nationaleducationgroups,anexpan-

sionofthedata-collectioneffortshe’d

begunoverthesummer.TheNational

Covid-19SchoolResponseDashboardso

farcovers1,006schoolsacross 48 states

with528,000studentsand54,000staff.

DuringthesecondhalfofSeptember,

theconfirmedinfectionrateamongkids

attendingin-person(fulltimeorhybrid)

was0.13%.Amongstaffit was0.24%.In

a schoolof1,000studentsand 100 staff,

thattranslatesto1.3studentcasesevery

twoweeksandonestaffcaseevery

eightweeks.Osterisnowworkingto

identifypatterns—areschoolsthatdon’t

requiremasksseeingmoreinfections?—

and plans to alert districts so they can

change behavior.

Oster knows she’ll get blamed if the

reopening experiment ends in disas-

ter. In that case, “the best I can do is say

that I did something I felt was productive

and helpful,” she told me. “If the result of

having done that is that the policy direc-

tion I pushed was not right, at least I got

the data to show that.”

It would be ironic, I responded, if

her own dataset proved her wrong. “It’s

true!” she said. “I think this data will be

useful no matter what we show. But, yes,

it would be ironic if I once again show

myself to be wrong. That could be my

thing! But I’m hoping not.” <BW>

“WE DO ALL KINDS OF THINGS THAT SUGGEST THAT WE ALLOW

FOR THE POSSIBLITY THAT PEOPLE COULD DIE AS A RESULT.

THAT’S A VERY CALLOUS, ECONOMICS-Y SOUNDING ARGUMENT”