64
ILLUSTRATION
BY
GEORGE
WYLESOL.
*AGE
16 AND
OLDER.
DATA:
FEDERAL
HIGHWAY
ADMINISTRATION,
BUREAU
OF
LABOR
STATISTICS
Theearly daysof the Covid pandemicbrought an
unprecedenteddeclinein drivingin theU.S.,with
vehiclemilestraveleddown41%fromFebruarytoApril
ona seasonallyadjustedbasis.ByJuly,themostrecent
monthforwhichtheFederalHighwayAdministration
hasreleaseddata,vehiclemileswerestilldown13%
(seasonallyadjusted)fromFebruary.
Drivingwillsurelycreepclosertoitspre-pandemic
levelasAmericansreturntotheirofficesthisyearand
next.Butit mayneverquitegetthere.A studythissum-
merbyaccountingandconsultingfirmKPMGforecast
thatvehiclemilestraveledwillsettleatabout90%ofpre-
2020 levels in coming years.Ona percapitabasis,they
were down 5% from theirall-timehighinthemid-2000s
even before the pandemic.DrivingintheU.S.wouldseem
to have peaked.
The reasons for this declinearestraightforward.More
and more people have beendoingtheirjobsfromhome—
and getting their entertainmentandbuyingthingsthereas
well. (Yes, the goods peoplebuyonlinearedeliveredinvehi-
cles, but on balance this stillresultsinfewermilestraveled
than if everybody shoppedinperson.)Thesetrends,which
began with the arrival ofwidespreadbroadbandinternet
access in the early 2000s,hadbeengainingstrengthin
recent years. The pandemichasacceleratedthem.
This doesn’t mean theendofcars;thevastmajorityof
American adults will stillneedthem.Car-dependentsub-
urbs have been growingfasterthancitiessince2016,and
the pandemic certainly hasn’tslowedthattrend.Butthey
won’t need as many, andtheywon’tneedtoreplacethem
as often. <BW> �Fox is a columnistforBloombergOpinion
◼ LAST THING
●REMOTE
ACCESS
InSeptember,
22.7%ofemployed
Americansreported
workingfromhome
becauseofthe
pandemic,according
totheBureauof
LaborStatistics.
Amongthose
in management
andprofessional
occupations,the
figurewas40.5%.
With Bloomberg Opinion
● DRIVETIME
Americansworking
athomethis
summerweresaving
60m
commuterhours
a day,according
toa Universityof
Chicagostudy.
● PARTY LINES
Vehicle miles traveled in July were down 14.1%
from a year earlier in heavily Democratic states,
and 7.6% in heavily Republican ones, according
to transportation researcher Michael Sivak.
● FEWER TRIPS
TO THE MALL
Electronic
commerce and mail
orders accounted
for 14.2% of U.S.
retail sales in July,
according to the
Census Bureau,
up from 11.7% in
February and 3.3%
in early 2000.
By Justin Fox
Miles Away From
Peak Driving
Bloomberg
Businessweek
(USPS
080
900)
October
12,
2020
(ISSN
0007-7135)
HIssue
no.
4674
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● Vehicle miles traveled per capita* in the U.S. in
the trailing 12 months
June 2005
12/1970 7/2020
14k
11
8