Barron's - USA (2020-10-12)

M34 BARRON’S October 12, 2020

FEDERALRESERVEDATABANK

Prev. Year

MemberBank Latest Week Ago

ReserveChgs.(Mil.$) Week Change Change

OneweekendedOct7:

U.S.Gov'tsecurities:

Bought outright 6,441,104 + 11,161 +2,851,604

Federalagencysecur:

Bought outright 2,347 .... ....

Reservebankcredit:

Primary Credit 2,889 -225 + 2,887

Secondary Credit .... .... ....

Seasonal Credit 33 -8 -41

Float -219 + 283 -107

OtherF.R.Assets 34,624 + 649 + 9,427

TotalFedCredit# 7,019,728 + 3,323 +3,110,403

Goldstock 11,041 .... ....

SDRCertif.Accounts 5,200 .... ....

Treas.Curr.Outst. 50,425 + 14 + 424

Total 7,107,973 + 3,441 +3,111,756

Currencyincirc 2,034,914 + 4,983 + 268,619

Treas.CashHldgs 25 -13 -165

Treas.FedDeposits 1,697,074 + 17,922 +1,378,883

ForeignFedDeposits 18,892 + 14 + 13,706

OtherFedDeposits 153,984 -18,876 + 89,893

OtherFRliab/cap 49,003 + 1,169 + 3,530

Totalfactors 4,267,113 + 1,897 +1,777,350

ReservesF.R.banks 2,840,860 + 1,544 +1,334,405

FgnholdU.S.debt 3,410,448 -1,671 -8,331

ReserveAggr(Mil.$sa) Latest Prev.Month% Year

MonthEnded August: Month Month Chg. Ago

TotalReserves: 2,799,700 2,718,500 2.99 1,586,800

Nonborrowed Res 2,716,600 2,625,600 3.47 1,586,700

Borrowed Reserves 83,126 92,943 -10.56 117

MonetaryBase 4,807,400 4,700,400 2.28 3,271,400

GOLD&SILVERPRICES

Year

Handy&Harman 10/9 10/2 Ago

Gold,troyounce 1923.25 1903.05 1479.15

Silver,troyounce 24.66 23.83 17.51

Baseforpricinggoldandsilvercontentsofshipmentsandfor

makingrefiningsettlement.

Price Premium Premium

Coins $ %

Krugerrand 1999.09 76.89 4.00

MapleLeaf 2018.31 96.11 5.00

MexicanPeso 2325.60 8.00 0.35

AustriaCrown 1887.14 3.00 0.16

AustriaPhil 2018.31 96.11 5.00

U.S.Eagles 2018.31 96.11 5.00

Premiumistheamountoverthevalueofthegoldcontentinthe

coin.SourceManfra,Tordella&Brookes,Inc.

Bullionspotgoldprice 1922.20

BARRON'SGOLDMININGINDEX

12-Month Year Week%

High Low 10/8 10/1 Ago Chg.

923.32391.56 Gold mining 839.66 848.51517.47 –1.04

INVESTORSENTIMENTREADINGS

High bullish readings in the Consensus stock index or in the

Market Vane stock index usually are signs of Market tops; low

ones, market bottoms.

Last 2Weeks 3Weeks

Week Ago Ago

ConsensusIndex

Consensus Bullish Sentiment 61% 58% 60%

Source:ConsensusInc.,P.O.Box520526,Independence,Mo.

Historicaldataavailableat(816)[email protected]

AAIIIndex

Bullish 34.7% 26.2% 24.9%

Bearish 39.0 43.1 46.0

Neutral 26.3 30.7 29.1

Source:AmericanAssociationofIndividualInvestors,

625N.MichiganAve.,Chicago,Ill.60611(312)280-0170.

MarketVane

Bullish Consensus 46% 46% 46%

Source:MarketVane,P.O.Box90490,

Pasadena,CA91109(626)395-7436.

TIMGroupMarketSentiment

Indicator 49.9% 48.1% 43.7%

Source:TIMGroup,3ColumbusCircle,Suite1592

NewYork,NY10019(844)[email protected]

WEEKLYBONDSTATISTICS

Last Prev. YrAgo

Week Week Week

NewOfferings,(mil$)(v)

Corporate (z) 29,433 r19,050 27,245

Municipal (z) 12,818 r13,295 11,983

BestGradeBonds-y(Barron's index of 10 high-grade

corporate bonds.)

1.61 1.62 2.71

Interm-GradeBonds-y(Barron's index of 10

medium-grade corporate bonds.)

3.08 3.10 3.52

ConfidenceIndex(High-grade index divided by inter-

mediate-grade index; decline in latter vs. former generally

indicates rising confidence, pointing to higher stocks.)

52.1 52.2 77.0

OtherConfidenceIndicators:

BloombergBarclaysUSLongTreasury*(This

index measures the performance of fixed-rate, nominal US

Treasuries with at least 10 years to maturity. Jan. 1, 1973=100.)

4769.58 4850.39 4107.68

BloombergBarclaysUSCredit(This index

includes all publicly issued, fixed-rate, non-convertible, invest-

ment-grade, dollar-denominated, SEC-registered corporate

debt. All issues have at least one year to maturity and outstand-

ing par value of at least $250 million. Jan. 1, 1973=0.) (v)

3294.65 3295.66 3053.37

RyanLabsTreasuryIndex(Index of total return from

active Treasury notes and bonds. Dec. 31, 1996=100.)

331.47 334.58 303.52

Last Prev. YrAgo

Week Week Week

BondBuyer20BondIndex(Index of yields of 20

general obligation municipal bonds.)

2.35 2.25 2.59

BondBuyerMunicipalBondIndex(Index of 40

actively-traded tax-exempt bonds; component issues are

changed regularly to keep the index a current picture of the

market. Source: The Bond Buyer

3.62 3.59 3.56

Stock/BondYieldGap-s(Difference between yield on

highest-grade corporate bonds and yield on stocks on the DJIA.)

+.45 +.51 –.42

YieldonDJEqualWeightUSCorpBondIdx:

Corp Bonds, (y) 2.20 2.22 2.91

v-WeekendedThursday.y-Yieldtomaturity,weekendedThursday.

z-Source:Refinitiv.*BarclaysT-BondIndexdiscontinuedbyfirm.

MONEYSUPPLY

MoneySupply(Bil.$) Latest Prev. Yr.AgoYOY%Chg

WeekendedSeptember28

M1(seas.adjusted) 5,510.6r5,576.83,925.3 40.39

M1(notadjusted) 5,702.3r5,465.14,060.6 40.43

M2(seas.adjusted) 18,652.6r18,720.115,105.2 23.48

M2(notadjusted) 18,573.8r18,623.215,034.4 23.54

MonthendedAugust

M1Mult.Replacement(St.LouisFed) 1.126 1.125 1.171 -3.84

MonthlyMoneySupply

MonthendedAugust

M1(seas.adjusted) 5,395.0 5,329.8 3,900.8 38.30

M2(seas.adjusted) r18,411.9r18,327.115,060.8 22.25

GOLD PERFORMANCE

-30

-15

0

15

30

45

60

75

90

N D J F M A M J J A S

Barron's Gold Mining Index (839.66)

s

Handy & Harman Gold Price

s

In Demand: China’s gold traders re-

turned from holiday. The price of gold

ticked up 1%, to $1,923 an ounce.

ARMSINDEX

TheArmsindex,alsoknownastheshorttermtradingindex,isanumber

derivedbydividingonequotientintoanotherquotient.Thenumeratorin

the index is the number of advancing stocks divided by the number of

declining stocks. As of 3/14/11, the denominator in the index is now the

compositevolumeofadvancingstocksdividedbythecompositevolumeof

decliningstocks.

Daily 10/5 10/6 10/7 10/8 10/9

NYSE .63 1.68 .51 .59 .94

NYSEAmerican .43 .81 .50 .22 .83

Nasdaq .80 .77 .66 1.28 .71

SouthKorea (Won) .0008744 .0008574 1143.63 1166.31

SriLanka (Rupee) .0054 .0054 184.2200 184.5800

Sweden (Krona) .1139 .1119 8.7799 8.9327

Switzerland (Franc) 1.0995 1.0862 .9095 .9206

Taiwan (Dollar) .03494 .03456 28.617 28.935

Thailand (Baht) .03227 .03168 30.990 31.570

Turkey (New Lira)-d .1272 .1286 7.8597 7.7739

Ukraine (Hryvnia) .0353 .0351 28.3500 28.4500

U.K. (Pound) 1.3047 1.2933 .7665 .7732

Uruguay (Peso) ...... .. ...... .. ...... .. ...... ..

Financial .02349 .02350 42.575 42.550

----

Euro 1.1832 1.1717 .8452 .8534

SpecialDrawingRights(SDR)arebasedonexchangeratesfortheU.S.,

British,andJapanesecurrencies.Source:InternationalMonetaryFund.

a-RussianCentralBankrate.b-governmentrate.d-rebasedasofJan.1,

2005.y-floatingrate.

Market Laboratory

MONEYRATES

Latest Prev. YrAgo

Week Week

DiscountRate(NY) 0.25 0.25 2.50

PrimeRate(base) 3.25 3.25 5.00

FedFundsRate

Avg effective offer 0.09 0.09 1.82

Avg weekly auction-c 0.09 0.09 1.86

T-BillsRate

13 weeks, Coupon Yield 0.096 0.101 1.715

13 weeks, Auction Rate 0.095 0.100 1.680

26 weeks, Coupon Yield 0.112 0.107 1.733

26 weeks, Auction Rate 0.110 0.105 1.690
Avg weekly auction-c 0.10 0.10 1.74

BrokerCallRate 2.00 2.00 3.75

BankersAcceptances

1 month 0.12 0.12 2.05

2 months 0.15 0.15 2.05

3 months 0.18 0.18 2.10

6 months 0.20 0.20 2.10

EuroLiborRate

1 month -0.565 -0.571 -0.518

3 months -0.523 -0.528 -0.440

6 months -0.498 -0.496 -0.416

12 months -0.443 -0.440 -0.346

LiborInterbankRate

1 month 0.15 0.14 1.91

3 months 0.22 0.23 2.00

6 months 0.25 0.24 1.98

12 months 0.35 0.36 1.96

ForeignPrimeRates

Canada 2.45 2.45 3.95

Germany 0.00 0.00 0.00

Japan 1.475 1.475 1.475

Switzerland 0.00 0.00 0.50

Britain 0.10 0.10 0.75

OtherMoneyRates

Fannie Mae Home Loan:

30-Year Fixed Conv 1.97 1.94 3.28

Bank money market-z 0.10 0.10 0.22

Interest Checking-z 0.05 0.05 0.08

6-Month Certif-z 0.18 0.19 0.57

12-Month Certif-z 0.27 0.27 0.81
30 Month Accounts-z 0.26 0.27 0.86

5-Year Certificates-z 0.43 0.43 1.16

U.S. Savings EE Bonds:

Long-Term (5yrs+) 0.10 0.10 0.10

c-Annualizedyields,adjustedforconstantmaturity,reportedby

theFederalReserveonaweeklyaveragebasis.
Sources:TullettPreboninformation,Ltd.
Factset.z-Bankrate.com.

1.15

1.00

0.85

0.70

0.55

0.40

4.90

4.00

3.10

2.20

1.30

0.40

S&P 100 CBOE

O N D J F M A M J J A S O

CBOE PUT/CALL RATIO vs S&P 100

Source:CBOE

Readings in the CBOE equity put-call ratio of 60:100

and in the S&P 100 of 125:100 are considered bullish,

for instance. Bearish signals flash when the equity

put-call level reaches the vicinity of 30:100 and the

index ratio hits 75:100.

S&P 100 s

CBOE s

FOREIGNEXCHANGE

Friday,October09,2020

TheNewYorkforeignexchangemid-rangeratesarequotedat5

p.m. Eastern time by Tullett Prebon. Retail transactions pro-

vide fewer units of foreign currency per dollar.

Foreign Foreign U.S.$in U.S.$in

Currency Currency Foreign Foreign

inU.S.$ inU.S.$ Currency Currency

Country Fri. LastFri. Fri. LastFri.

Argentina (Peso)-y .0130 .0130 77.1503 76.8793

Australia (Dollar) .7244 .7162 1.3805 1.3963

Bahrain (Dinar) 2.6519 2.6525 .3771 .3770

Brazil (Real) .1808 .1760 5.5322 5.6833

Bulgaria (Lev) .6044 .5989 1.6546 1.6697

Canada (Dollar) .7623 .7513 1.3118 1.3311

Chile (Peso) .001258 .001266 794.70 789.60

China (Renminbi) .1494 .1473 6.6947 6.7909

Colombia (Peso) .0002612 .0002583 3828.00 3872.00

Croatia (Kuna) .1562842 .1549019 6.40 6.46

Czech.Rep. (Koruna) ...... .. ...... .. ...... .. ...... ..

Commercial rate .04379 .04316 22.834 23.168

Denmark (Krone) .1590 .1574 6.2902 6.3528

Ecuador US Dollar 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000 1.0000

Egypt (Pound)-y .0637 .0635 15.7039 15.7501

HongKong (Dollar) .1290 .1290 7.7501 7.7502

Hungary (Forint) .003321 .003268 301.09 306.04

Iceland (Krona) .007253 .007221 137.87 138.49

India (Rupee) .01370 .01363 73.000 73.347

Indonesia (Rupiah) .0000680 .0000673 14700 14860

Israel (Shekel) .2960 .2914 3.3779 3.4314

Japan (Yen) .009468 .009496 105.62 105.31

Kazakhstan (Tenge) .002340 .002308 427.34 433.30

Kuwait (Dinar) 3.2666 3.2648 .3061 .3063

Macau (Pataca) .1254 .1252 7.9770 7.9890

Malaysia (Ringgit)-b .2416 .2401 4.1388 4.1645

Mexico (Peso) ...... .. ...... .. ...... .. ...... ..

Floating rate .0473 .0463 21.1318 21.6192

NewZealand (Dollar) .6670 .6637 1.4993 1.5067

Norway (Krone) .1095 .1073 9.1325 9.3199

Oman (Rial) 2.5976 2.5974 .3850 .3850

Pakistan (Rupee) .00611 .00607 163.767 164.645

Philippines (Peso) .02068 .02062 48.361 48.496

Poland (Zloty) .2646 .2602 3.7787 3.8430

Qatar (Rial) .2746 .2747 3.6413 3.6410

Russia (Ruble)-a .01303 .01279 76.766 78.194

SaudiArabia (Riyal) .2666 .2666 3.7511 3.7510

Singapore (Dollar) .7392 .7332 1.3529 1.3638

SouthAfrica (Rand) .0607 .0605 16.4664 16.5295

Foreign Foreign U.S.$in U.S.$in

Currency Currency Foreign Foreign

inU.S.$ inU.S.$ Currency Currency

Country Fri. LastFri. Fri. LastFri.