The New York Times - USA (2020-10-15)

THE NEW YORK TIMES NATIONALTHURSDAY, OCTOBER 15, 2020 Y A

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Election

been straightforward about his

distaste for wearing masks.

“I’m not going to put my mask

on every time I step outside my

apartment door and wander

around these streets of America

where I live, which are primarily

owned by God anyway,” said Ms.

Diss, a registered Democrat who

is supporting Mr. Trump’s re-elec-

tion and stressed that she believes

masks are important in some situ-

ations.

In the Senate race, Mr. Tillis

faces a somewhat unique chal-

lenge: North Carolina is not a

state in which voters have valued

seniority in the Senate. Other than

Mr. Burr, a three-term Republican

who holds the state’s other seat in

the chamber, no North Carolina

senator has been re-elected since

Jesse Helms won his final term in

1996.

Mr. Tillis is trailing Mr. Cun-

ningham even though about half

of the voters surveyed said they

would prefer that the Senate vote

on the Supreme Court confirma-

tion of Judge Amy Coney Barrett

before Election Day. Mr. Tillis sup-

ports that position, but a majority

of Americans oppose it, according

to a range of polls.

But the polling shows that Mr.

Cunningham, Mr. Tillis and Mr.

Trump all suffer from a broad lack

of trust, which hampers both their

political standing and their ability

to launch attacks against their op-

ponents.

Asked if they trusted the Trump

administration to provide accu-

rate updates about the president’s

health after his positive coronavi-

rus test, 41 percent of voters sur-

veyed said they did and 52 percent

said they did not. Even nine per-

cent of Mr. Trump’s supporters in

the state said they did not trust his

administration to state true facts

about his health.

Just 27 percent of those polled

said Mr. Cunningham is “honest

and trustworthy,” compared with

48 percent who said he is not. Mr.

Tillis is trusted by 30 percent of

likely voters, while 48 percent do

not trust him. Both men face skep-

ham, a former state senator and

an Iraq war veteran, retains a 15-

point advantage among women.

North Carolina has long been

crucial to each party’s hopes of

winning a Senate majority. Demo-

crats are counting on Mr. Cun-

ningham to be one of at least four

challengers the party needs to win

Republican-held seats to take con-

trol of the chamber, while Republi-

cans seeking to hold on to their

majority will have a far easier

time doing so if Mr. Tillis is re-

elected.

Mr. Cunningham has seen his

own personal approval rating sink

since his texting scandal

emerged. Last month 46 percent

of likely voters polled in North

Carolina had a favorable view of

Mr. Cunningham, compared to 29

percent who saw him unfavorably.

Now 40 percent of likely voters

have a favorable view and 41 per-

cent see him unfavorably.

Vasiliki Kalkani, 52, of Ashe-

ville, N.C., voted for Jill Stein of

the Green Party for president in

2016 but now backs Mr. Biden be-

cause she said it is “critical” to re-

move Mr. Trump from office. Ms.

Kalkani, a small-business owner,

said she did not care about Mr.

Cunningham’s text messages.

“Who doesn’t have sex scan-

dals?” she said. “Do they take

care of the country?”

In 2016, Mr. Trump carried

North Carolina by 3.7 percentage

points over Hillary Clinton, while

Senator Richard Burr, a Republi-

can, won re-election by nearly six

points.

Mr. Biden’s standing in North

Carolina is consistent with the

leads he has built in other battle-

ground states. The former vice

president has significant advan-

tages among women and subur-

banites, and is far more trusted to

deal with the public health crisis

caused by the coronavirus.

On the question of which candi-

date would better handle the vi-

rus, Times/Siena College polls

last week found Mr. Biden had a

10-point advantage among likely

voters in Nevada, and a seven-

point lead in Ohio.

The North Carolina poll, like

those conducted recently in other

states, showed that a majority of

likely voters do not trust Mr.

Trump to be honest about his own

experience with the virus, the

polling shows.

Judith Diss, 80, of Locust, N.C.,

said Mr. Trump had been the vic-

tim of unfair media coverage and

said she appreciated that he had

With a half-million votes al-
ready cast, President Trump and
Senator Thom Tillis trail their
Democratic challengers in North
Carolina, according to a new poll
from The New York Times and Si-
ena College, signaling potential
trouble for Republicans in a state
critical to both the presidential
race and the battle for control of
the Senate.
Former Vice President Joseph
R. Biden Jr. leads Mr. Trump
among likely voters, 46 percent to
42 percent, while Mr. Tillis is be-
hind Cal Cunningham, his Demo-
cratic challenger who is em-
broiled in a scandal over flirta-
tious text messages, 41 percent to
37 percent.
Gov. Roy Cooper, a Democrat,
leads his Republican challenger,

Lt. Gov. Dan Forest, by a larger

margin: 51 percent to 37 percent.

Mr. Cunningham’s lead has held

steady since early September,

when the Times/Siena poll found

the Democrat with a five-point ad-

vantage over Mr. Tillis. But there

is still time and room for the race

to shift: 15 percent of likely voters

surveyed said they remained un-

decided in the Senate race —

nearly twice as many as those

who said they were undecided in

the presidential contest in North

Carolina.

The survey has a margin of

sampling error of 4.5 percentage

points.

The poll was conducted within

the last few days, well after Mr.

Cunningham offered an awkward

public apology for the romantic

(but PG-rated) texts he sent this

summer to a woman who is not his

wife. It found that Mr. Cunning-

ticism from large constituencies

of their own parties: 20 percent of

Democrats don’t trust Mr. Cun-

ningham, while 23 percent of Re-

publicans said the same about Mr.

Tillis.

“Cal Cunningham seems as

clean as dishes out of the dishwa-

ter, except for the sexual thing,”

said Martin Reavis, a 52-year-old

construction worker from Har-

mony, N.C. Mr. Reavis voted for

Mr. Trump in 2016, but plans to

back both Mr. Cunningham and

Mr. Biden. “Infidelity is bad, but

it’s not going to change my mind,”

he said.

The Times/Siena poll comes a

day before what would have been

the second presidential debate be-

tween Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump.

But after Mr. Trump tested pos-

itive for the coronavirus, the Com-

mission on Presidential Debates

announced that the debate would

be held virtually, and then can-

celed it after Mr. Trump said he

would not participate unless both

candidates appeared in person.

Instead, the two candidates will

conduct televised town hall

events at the same time on Thurs-

day night.

The final debate is scheduled

for Oct. 22.

Lack of Trust of Trump and Tillis

In North Carolina Imperils G.O.P.

THE NEW YORK TIMES /SIENA COLLEGE POLL

Joseph R. Biden Jr. leads President

Trump in North Carolina, a state

Mr. Trump won in 2016.

A Democratic challenger leads an incumbent

Republican in North Carolina for a seat that could

determine which party controls the Senate.

Do you think these Senate candidates are honest and trustworthy?

Based on a New York Times/Siena College poll of 627 likely voters from Oct. 9 to Oct. 13.
Note: Figures may not add up to 100 percent because of rounding. THE NEW YORK TIMES

Rep.

+4 Dem.

15% undecided

Dem. Margin

41%

Cal Cunningham

37%

Thom Tillis

NYT/Siena

Oct. 2020

+4 Biden

46-

2016 result

+4 Trump

50-

Cunningham

Tillis

27% 24% 48%

30% 23% 48%

Ye s Don’t know No

By REID J. EPSTEIN

and MATT STEVENS

The Democratic challenger, Cal Cunningham, left, has held a consistent lead over Thom Tillis.

GERRY BROOME/ASSOCIATED PRESS

A texting scandal has

not deterred support

for a Democrat in a

crucial Senate race.

Martha McSally of Arizona.

Instead, Mr. Harrison and Mr.

Kelly are, in the closing weeks of

the campaign, pitching voters on

a broader idea. For Mr. Harrison,

it’s a belief, voiced by the South

Carolina-born actress Viola Davis,

that a Democrat can win in what

has been a solidly Republican

state for a generation.

Mr. Kelly’s ad, voiced by his

wife, the former Representative

Gabrielle Giffords, is her testimo-

nial to his fidelity and loyalty —

to her, to the country and, if

elected, to Arizona. It almost

doesn’t matter what’s in the ad;

just hearing Ms. Giffords’s voice,

still shaky nine years after she

was shot in the head outside a

Tucson supermarket, is a moving

tribute to his candidacy.

FACT CHECKNeither ad touches

on any policy stance or political

statement. Their aim is simply to

tug at heartstrings without offer-

ing a political rationale. It’s the

television version of the phrase:

“If you know, you know.”

WHERE IT’S RUNNINGMr.

Harrison’s and Mr. Kelly’s ads are

airing in their respective states.

THE TAKEAWAYThese ads are

the luxury of a campaign so flush

with cash that it can afford a

minute-long interruption to the

onslaught of vituperative TV spots

in battleground states. They bring

to mind the classic 2016 Bernie

Sanders ad with no words, set to

the Simon and Garfunkel song

“America,” and represent the

campaign’s final efforts to define

themselves. For Mr. Harrison,

that means inspiring hope that he

can actually win. For Mr. Kelly, it’s

pitching the idea that the fa-

mously prickly former astronaut

is actually a nice guy.REID J.

EPSTEIN

With less than three weeks to go

before Nov. 3, it’s time for closing

messages. And for candidates

with virtually unlimited money,

that means highly produced

60-second TV ads voiced by

high-profile surrogates that

intend to leave the viewer opti-

mistic and perhaps a bit emo-

tional not just about voting but

about America and, maybe, even

life itself.

THE MESSAGETwo ads from

Democratic cadidates for the

Senate, Jaime Harrison in South

Carolina and Mark Kelly in Ari-

zona, don’t bother to mention the

incumbent Republicans each

man is trying to defeat. They

don’t have to, because by this

point in the campaign, voters

have been bombarded by tens of

millions of dollars of advertising

eviscerating Senators Lindsey

Graham of South Carolina and

For the Home Stretch, Two Democrats Go Positive

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