the times | Thursday October 15 2020 2GM 7
News
Ministers have left it too late for a
“circuit-breaker” lockdown to be fully
effective when schools break up for
half-term, the senior scientific adviser
evaluating the measure has said.
Graham Medley, a member of the
Scientific Advisory Group for Emer-
gencies (Sage), said that ministers had
“missed the boat” for a pre-planned
two-week lockdown, which would be
designed to reduce pressure on the
NHS while giving businesses and fami-
lies time to prepare. Sage published
minutes on Monday showing that three
weeks ago it had called for a circuit
breaker. His remarks will increase
pressure on the government to explain
why it failed to follow the advice.
Professor Medley led a team which
showed that a two-week full lockdown,
introduced on October 24 to coincide
with half term, with stay-at-home or-
ders and school closures, could reduce
deaths for the rest of the year from
about 19,900 to 12,100.
The policy was backed by Sir Keir
Starmer, the Labour leader. But it is
now too late to give businesses and the
public enough notice for it to work as
envisaged, Professor Medley said.
“It would be very useful epidemiolog-
ically, but [October 24] is probably too
soon for people and businesses to plan
effectively to reduce the most negative
impacts,” he told The Times. “Most pubs
get monthly deliveries so they need at
least a month’s notice not to buy the
beer that they won’t sell, etc.”
Other options could include bringing
Christmas holidays forward, govern-
ment advisers said.
“We missed the boat of making it a
precautionary break for this half-term,”
Professor Medley said. “But we haven’t
missed the boat of it epidemiologically
as a strategy... You don’t need to be a
rocket scientist [to realise that the
country is heading for] the majority of
people living under much more severe
restrictions.” Other members of Sage
support the strategy.
Professor Sir Ian Boyd, who sits on
Sage, said that regionally-focused cir-
cuit breakers could be useful but that
longer-term changes in how people in-
teract would be needed to keep the
virus in check. “Circuit breakers are
about the government taking control
when it would be much better if people
themselves took control,” he said.
Professor Sir Mark Walport, also a
Sage member, said that ministers faced
“appallingly difficult” decisions. “Sage
looks at the pandemic through the lenslockdown to keep the prevalence low,
and that’s how we got through it.’ ”
A study by Professor Medley and
members of a modelling group suggests
a strict lockdown from October 24
could cut hospital admissions for the
rest of the year from 132,400 to 66,500.
Lockdown with schools and shops open
but hospitality sites closed could cut
deaths to 15,600. “Such breaks may
allow other methods that work best
with low numbers (such as test-trace-
and-isolate) to reassert control,” the
report said.
Covid lockdowns turn loneliness into a
killer, Emma Hogan, page 24
Boris Johnson should seek Labour’s
co-operation, leading article, page 27of the pandemic — how do we bring it
under control? Sage does not contain
economists... If you are a politician,
you have to walk the extremely tight
tight-rope between controlling infec-
tion and avoiding dire economic conse-
quences. There is clear concern,
though, that measures at the moment
are not bringing things under control.”
Professor Medley said that, planned
in advance, a circuit breaker could help
people cope better. “There is a chance
to build a national narrative about how
we handled the epidemic,” he said.
“Are we going to bump from enforced
lockdown to enforced lockdown? Or
are we going to say, ‘Actually, what we
did was went into short periods of strictNorthern Ireland shuts pubs, schools and hairdressers
ers and beauticians will have to close.
People should work from home unless
unable to do so, and are urged not to
take unnecessary journeys.
Arlene Foster, the first minister, told
a special sitting of the assembly that
rising infections were of “grave con-
cern”, adding: “We fully appreciate that
this will be difficult and worrying news.
The executive has taken this decision
because it is necessary, and we dis-
cussed the impacts in great detail. We
do not take this step lightly.”
She said that the executive hoped
that the restrictions would have two
impacts. “First, on the Covid transmis-
sion rates which must be turned down
now, or we will be in a very difficultplace very soon indeed. Second, we be-
lieve it marks a point where everyone,
each and every one of us, can take stock
and go back to the social distancing
messaging. That is vitally important.”
The restrictions were agreed after a
meeting of the Stormont executive that
ended in the early hours of yesterday.
Conor Murphy, the finance minister
and a Sinn Féin member of the legis-
lative assembly, said : “In the first in-
stance, our duty is to protect lives and to
protect the health of the population.
And that’s why, even though these are
difficult decisions, even though we’re
very conscious of the impact they have
on society, the executive has agreed a
series of measures to take.”The 1,217 daily case tally is not direct-
ly comparable with the first wave of the
pandemic, as fewer tests were carried
out in that period. However, it is the
highest total since the testing regime
was expanded to community settings.
In the past seven days 6,693 new pos-
itive cases of the virus have been detect-
ed, bringing the total in the region to
23,115. There are 164 patients in hospi-
tal, including 24 people being treated in
intensive care.
The Derry and Strabane council area
has been experiencing the highest in-
fection rate in the UK. It has a seven-
day average of 992 cases per 100,
people. The area is already subject to
additional localised restrictions.Northern Ireland is to enter a period of
more intense restrictions after the Stor-
mont executive announced the closure
of schools, pubs and restaurants.
From 6pm tomorrow pubs and res-
taurants will close for four weeks, with
the exception of takeaways and deliver-
ies, while schools will close for two
weeks, one of which will cover the half-
term break.
Northern Ireland reported 1,217 new
cases in 24 hours, a daily record. Yester-
day four more deaths were announced,
taking the total to 602.
Most shops can stay open, as will
gyms and churches, but there will be a
limit of 25 people at funerals and wed-
ding ceremonies. However, hairdress-“genuinely concluded”. If you are
really being genuine, you probably
should not say so, and certainly
not do so twice.
The prime minister was by now
stabbing the air and whipping up a
mousse of tetchy amusement
about Sir Keir’s “U-turn”. Sir Keir
began his last question by
predicting that Boris would finish
with “his prepared rant as usual”.
This fair comment was rather
diluted by the fact that he himself
read the words off his colour-
markered script. “Prepared rants”
indeed.
With that, the Labour leader
resumed his seat and for the next
minute or so, awash with
adrenaline, jiggled his knees. The
eyes popped with the effort of it all.
Beside him Nick Brown sucked his
teeth and, after a moment’s close
inspection, turned his gaze
elsewhere.News
restrictions and nationalist surge
‘Too late’ for half-term circuit breaker to work
Rhys Blakely Science Correspondent
Tom Whipple Science EditorQ&A
With half-term plans in
the balance, parents are
getting nervous about
holidays, outings or
childcare clubs they
have booked and
possibly paid for
between October 26
and 30.Can I get a refund if my
trip is cancelled?
Families were routinely
denied refunds during
the first wave of the
pandemic, such as for
flights and hotel
bookings, even though
the law should be on
their side. Since many
companies refused to
issue refunds earlier in
the year, or insisted on
giving people vouchers,
the Competition and
Markets Authority
(CMA) decided to issue
guidance on when to
expect a refund during
the pandemic.What about holiday
clubs?
Generally speaking,
wherever a contract has
not been fulfilled, you
are entitled to a full
refund. So if your child’s
tennis holiday club is
cancelled, you are
entitled to get all yourmoney back, because
the business has
cancelled your
agreement without
providing any services.
This right to a refund
applies even if the
business is forced to
cancel the club because
of government
guidance. Charging
parents in this situation
is “likely to be unfair
and unenforceable”, the
CMA said.What if local
restrictions mean I
cannot get to the club
or holiday resort?
The position gets more
legally complex where a
service can be provided,
but the parents decide
not to go ahead. A
family in Cardiff may be
prevented from sending
their child to a club in
southwest England
because of local
restrictions. But the
resort is open, meaning
the services are still on
offer. In this case, the
first step would be to
reason with the holiday
company or club to try
to get a refund or
postpone the trip.Can I challenge a
company if I’m refused
a refund?
Consumers do have the
right to get a refund if a
contract they havesigned is deemed to
have been “frustrated”.
The CMA says this
applies to a situation
where a person would
be at serious risk if they
went on holiday — for
example if they are
waiting to receive the
results of an NHS Covid-
19 test. In England and
Wales, frustration is set
out in the Law Reform
(Frustrated Contracts)
Act 1943. In Northern
Ireland the relevant law
is the Frustrated
Contracts Act (Northern
Ireland) 1947. Ultimately,
parents would need to
go to court and prove
their case if a business
still refuses to offer a
refund after pointing
out these laws.Can I be forced to pay
the full balance on top
of my deposit?
Finally, families who
have paid deposits, but
cannot go on a holiday
or get to a holiday club,
should not be required
to pay the full cost of a
trip if they cannot
attend, or it is cancelled.
The CMA makes it clear
that it is unfair for
businesses to require
people to pay in full if
they cannot make use
of a service, and says
deposits should be a
small percentage of the
total price.The different scenarios
Assuming the number of cases
increases at 3 per cent a day, where
the growth rate (rather than the
reproduction number, or R) is 0.03,
and no action is taken, deaths are
projected to rise to 19,900.With an April-style lockdown,
deaths would fall by 7,
to 12,
Restrictions included the closure of
all schools, pubs, restaurants and
shops selling non-essential goods.
People had to stay at home except
for limited purposes. Gatherings of
more than two people in public
were not allowed, and this included
weddings. Only immediate family
members could attend funerals. One
form of exercise a day was allowed,
for example a run, walk or bike ride,
either alone or with members of
your household. Hotels and bed and
breakfasts were shut.With the restrictions that were in
place at the end of May, deaths
would drop by 6,600 to 13,
Unlimited outdoor exercise was
permitted and anyone who could
not work from home was “actively
encouraged” to return to the
workplace. People were allowed to
meet one other person they did not
live with, in an outdoor setting with
social distancing observed.With the restrictions that were in
place in mid-June, deaths would
drop by 4,300 to 15,
Fashion stores, betting shops and
charity stores were open with social
distancing in place. Groups of up to
six people from outside one
household could meet outdoors in
public and in private gardens in
England, so long as people from
different households maintained
social distance. People who had
been shielding could meet people
from another household outdoors.With the restrictions that were in
place in August, deaths would drop
by 2,300 to 17,
Theatres, casinos and bowling alleys
could open in England with socially
distanced audiences, as could gyms,
pools and sport facilities. Wedding
receptions of up to 30 guests were
allowed and beauty salons could
offer “front of face” treatments such
as eyebrow threading.TOLGA AKMEN/AFP/GETTY IMAGES