20 BriefingRuling Thailand The EconomistOctober 17th 2020
2 would prove extremely difficult.
Why has the army permitted such
manoeuvres? Defence of the monarchy is
one of its central reasons for existing. Both
the powerful army commander who re-
tired in September, and his replacement,
are deeply loyal to the king. They also rose
through the ranks of the King’s Guard, in
which Vajiralongkorn himself once served.
Mr Prayuth and his closest allies, by con-
trast, emerged from the Queen’s Guard
within the Second Infantry Division.
The prime minister can hardly counter
the monarch’s power grabs. He depends on
the king’s support for a semblance of legiti-
macy. Whereas the middle and upper class-
es of many countries contain democratic
champions, those of Thailand “have never
needed mass support to advance or protect
their interests”, explains James Wise, a for-
mer Australian ambassador to Thailand, in
his book “Thailand: History, Politics and
the Rule of Law”. These conservatives
would not stand for an army-linked prime
minister rebuffing the royal institution.
Mr Prayuth is also weak: he wrestles
even with his allies in the ruling coalition
and lacks personal popularity. That hin-
ders his ability to tackle the difficulties
Thailand faces. Growth was slowing even
before the coronavirus pandemic struck
(see chart). Now the central bank expects
the economy to contract by more than 8%
this year—worse than the crash in the
Asian financial crisis in 1997.Why should I wake up?
A very few opposition politicians have re-
sisted King Vajiralongkorn’s growing con-
trol. In October most mps from the liberal
Future Forward Party, founded in 2018, op-
posed an executive decree in the lower
house of parliament. The decree, which
passed anyway, facilitated the partial
transfer of army units and related budget-ary allocations to the Royal Command
Guard. Even so, it was the first time that
lawmakers had ever opposed a legal proce-
dure linked to the monarchy.
Future Forward no longer exists. Its
platform in favour of democratic freedoms
and army reform, as well as the popularity
of its charismatic leader, Thanathorn Juan-
groongruangkit, made it a threat to the es-
tablishment. The outfit grew from nothing
to become the country’s third-largest party
in parliament in little more than a year. Le-
gal cases against the institution and its
leadership started to mount. In November
Mr Thanathorn was stripped of his status
as an mp. In February the party was dis-
solved by the constitutional court and its
executives banned from politics for a de-
cade. The judges decided that a loan Mr
Thanathorn gave the party was an illegal
breach of individual-donation limits.
Flash mobs mounted protests, though
social-distancing measures soon put an
end to them. The lull was temporary. Social
media have provided an outlet for auda-
cious criticisms. So widespread was moan-
ing over the traffic jams caused by royalmotorcades, for example, that in January
the king instructed police not to close en-
tire roads for travelling royals.
Other grumbles could not so easily be
sorted. In August, after legal threats from
the Thai government, Facebook blocked
access from Thailand to a 1m-member
group criticising the monarchy. “Requests
like this are severe, contravene interna-
tional-human rights law, and have a chill-
ing effect on people’s ability to express
themselves,” the firm stated. It is preparing
to mount a legal challenge.
Popular anger has moved from screens
to streets. Since July protesters have gath-
ered to call for the dissolution of the gov-
ernment, reform of the constitution and an
end to the harassment of opposition activ-
ists. Students’ demonstrations inspired a
wider swathe of Thais to march, too. Their
efforts mark an evolution from the feud be-
tween red shirts and yellow shirts. New
battle lines are over democratic freedoms.Maybe this time
The boldest protesters have called openly
for reform of the monarchy. They object to
the king’s financial set-up and his consoli-
dation of military power. Mr Thanathorn
has also called for transparency about how
state funds are spent on the monarchy.
The situation grew more serious as the
protests swelled in size. The great fear is
that the bloody treatment of student prot-
esters in the 1970s will be repeated. In 1976
police, army and vigilante groups attacked
students after they staged a mock hanging
in protest against the killing of two pro-de-
mocracy activists. A story spread among
royalists that the figure hanged resembled
Crown Prince Vajiralongkorn. According to
official figures, 46 students died and more
than 3,000 were arrested.
So far the authorities have arrested a
few dozen protest leaders. The government
had claimed it wanted to talk to students
about their grievances. “Having a peaceful
and civil dialogue where we exchange our
views is the best approach for moving for-
ward,” said the education minister. How-
ever, this week the establishment ran out of
patience. If the prime minister cannot
bring calm he may be replaced. Any drastic
intervention is unlikely, however, without
the monarch’s foreknowledge.
But King Vajiralongkorn’s clout has
come at a price: open criticism of the mon-
archy. “The ghost is out of the bottle and
you won’t get it back again,” reckons one
diplomat in Bangkok. The more brazen the
king’s moves towards a more absolute form
of rule, the more forceful the criticism. “We
are trying to bring the king and monarchy
under the constitution,” explains one teen-
age protester. “We aren’t trying to bring
them down.” King Vajiralongkorn’s actions
could determine whether Thailand contin-
ues to revere royalty, or starts to revile it. 7From crisis to crisis
Thailand, GDP, % change on a year earlierSources:WorldBank;BankofThailand *Forecast151050
20*
New constitutionsCoups