22 United States The EconomistOctober 17th 2020
21tor, which Mr Trump helped with lighter
taxes. Corporation-tax cuts did increase
post-tax earnings, one reason why the
American stockmarket has done relatively
well since Mr Trump came to power (see
chart 3). America has also become a more
favoured destination for foreign direct in-
vestment (see chart 4). But there is little ev-
idence of the promised business-invest-
ment boom (see chart 5).
America’s labour-market performance
is similarly nuanced. Though Mr Trump
particularly likes to boast about monthly
employment figures, it is hard to make the
case that in 2017-19 the jobs machine was
whirring. Jobs growth was slower than it
had been during Mr Obama’s second term.
In 2009-16 America’s unemployment rate
fell relative to the average for other g 7
economies (see chart 6). Under Mr Trumpunemployment did fall to the lowest since
the 1960s, but this was not internationally
exceptional. America’s improvement rela-
tive to employment in other countries
stopped under Mr Trump.
The lot of working-class Americans,
however, definitely improved in 2017-19.
Comparing household incomes between
countries is difficult, certainly for recent
years. But though there is some dispute
about the reliability of the data gathered in
2020, where the pandemic made it difficult
for researchers to conduct surveys, there is
clear evidence of an acceleration in the
growth of America’s median household in-
come from 2017 onwards (see chart 7). A
tight labour market also helped raise the
wage growth of the lowest-paid Americans,
relative to others, to a degree not seen since
Bill Clinton was president (see chart 8).And what of the economy in 2020? Mr
Trump’s loose fiscal policy before the pan-
demic left America with much higher debt
going into the crisis. On top of that splurge,
this year America has implemented the
world’s largest fiscal package (see chart 9),
posting stimulus cheques worth up to
$1,200 per person and temporarily bump-
ing up unemployment-insurance pay-
ments by $600 a week. It is possible,
though unlikely, that Congress will pass
even more stimulus before the election.
Even without another package, however,
and even though it is enduring a deep re-
cession, America will probably be the best-
performing g7economy in 2020—perhaps
by some margin. Just before the pandemic,
the American economy looked slightly
stronger than other rich countries. Before
long, the gap may be more impressive. 7The economic report of the president
United States, selected economic indicatorsSources:BEA;Bloomberg;Datastream;Dealogic;CensusBureau;JasonFurman;
IMF;FederalReserveBankofAtlanta;FederalReserveBankofSt.Louis;OECD;
“Coronavirus Infects Surveys, Too”, by J. Rothbaum and A. Bee; The Economist*Britain,Canada,France,Germany,ItalyandJapan
†M&Aactivity ‡Excludesoilandmining
§12-month moving average624857(^13)
9
↑Betterthanexpected
↓
Worse
GDP growth
Outturn v forecasts, % points
US
2
0
-2
-4
-6
2005 191510
G6median
10
8
6
4
2
0
2005 191510
Unemploymentrate
%
UnitedStates
G6median
40
30
20
10
0
2005 191510
2005 191510
USinwardFDI†
As%ofworldtotal
Valueofdeals
Numberofdeals
20
10
0
-10
-20
2005 191510
Businessinvestment‡
%changeona yearearlier
8
6
4
2
0
1998 15102005 19
Medianwages§
%increaseona yearearlier
Bottomquartile
Topquartile
9
6
3
0
-3
-6
Medianhouseholdincome
%changeona yearearlier
Rothbaum/Beecorrection
Stockmarkets
Jan1st2005=100
FTSEAllWorld
MSCIWorld
S&P 500
200
100
0
300
2005 191510
0
-3
-6
-9
-12
-15
2005 191510
Government budget deficit
As % of GDP
United States
G6* median
France
Italy
Canada
Britain
Germany
Japan
US
129630
Covid-19 fiscal measures
2020, % of GDP
S
enate confirmationhearings for Su-
preme Court nominees are an odd mix:
bloviation and softballs; hopeless yet re-
lentless inquiries into controversial cases;
deflections and mini civics lessons from
jurists in the hot seat. Judge Amy Coney
Barrett’s endurance run before the Senate
Judiciary Committee ticked these boxes.
But President Donald Trump’s nomination
of a deeply conservative appeals-court
judge to replace the late liberal justice Ruth
Bader Ginsburg in the fraught last stage of a
historically divisive general election cam-
paign brought new pique to the Hart Senate
Office Building.
Democrats had no chance of averting a
committee vote in Ms Barrett’s favour
and—barring a quartet of new infections
among Republicans—have little hope of
stopping her when the full Senate votes in
the coming weeks. But the ten Democrats
on the 22-member committee put together
an uncommonly unified resistance. Their
message was aimed at voters rather than at
Republican colleagues across the aisle.
The Affordable Care Act (aca), the law
Barack Obama signed in 2010, took centre
stage. With a Supreme Court challenge to
the aca coming on November 10th, one
week after the election, each Democrat
probed Ms Barrett on whether she would
vote to scrap it—and strip coverage from
some 23m Americans—days after taking
Ms Ginsburg’s seat. The interrogation was
accompanied by stories and photos of sick
constituents with pre-existing conditions
NEW YORK
Soon-to-be Justice Barrett borrowed a
tactic from Justice Ginsburg
Amy Coney Barrett
Hearing test