42 Middle East & Africa The EconomistOctober 17th 2020
T
heairliftsthatbroughtEthiopian
JewstoIsraelduringthe1980sand
1990sarethestuffoflegend.A secret
operationover 36 hoursin1991 involved
40 flightscarryingsome14,000mem-
bersoftheBetaIsrael,thelargestcom-
munityofEthiopianJews.Atthetime
Israeliscelebratedthemissions.But
todaytheirgovernment’splansfora
differentgroupofEthiopianJewsare
makingfewpeoplehappy.
OnOctober12thIsraeldecidedto
admit2,000membersoftheFalash
Mura,descendantsofEthiopianJews
whoconvertedtoChristianityovera
centuryago.Fornearly 30 yearsthe
FalashMurahavebeenclamouringtobe
acceptedbyIsrael.Everynowandthen
Israelletsa fewthousandin.Butroughly
8,000languishincampsinAddisAbaba
andGondar.SomeJewsthinkIsrael
shouldopenitsdoorstoallofthem.OthersquestionwhethertheFalashMura
qualifyunderIsrael’slawofreturn,
whichgrantscitizenshiptoallJews.
EthiopianJewsclaimtheirancestors
belongedtothelosttribeofDan,which
dispersedwhentheancientkingdomof
Israelfell,over2,700yearsago.But,
largelyisolated,theirpracticesdiffer
fromthoseofmainstreamJews.The
FalashMurahaveanotherproblem:
Israel’shighcourtlongagoruledthat
Jewswhoconvertedtoanotherreligion,
andtheirdescendants,arenoteligible
underthelawofreturn.Thegovernment
doesnotconsiderthegroupfullyJewish.
EvensomeBetaIsraelmembersaccuse
themofpretendingtobeJewishinorder
toescapehardshipathome.
Thegovernmentoccasionallybuckles
underpressurefromliberals,whofavour
moreAfricanimmigration,andnational-
ists,whoseethenewcomersashelping
JewsoutnumberPalestinians.Thereare
around150,000Ethiopian-Israelis(al-
most2%ofthepopulation).Halfare
FalashMura,whoarerequiredtoconvert
toOrthodoxJudaism.
Ethiopian-Israelishavefaceddis-
criminationandstruggledeconomically.
Buttheyhavealsogaineda bitofpolitical
influence.EarlierthisyearPninaTa-
mano-ShatabecameIsrael’sfirstEthiopi-
an-bornminister.BinyaminNetanyahu,
theprimeminister,oftentalksofbring-
ingovermoreEthiopianswhenheisin
politicaltrouble—asheisnow,duetohis
mishandlingofcovid-19.
ButIsrael’spolicyontheFalashMura
isa muddle,saysFentahunSeyoum,an
Ethiopian-Israeliactivist:“Eitherthey
arenoteligibleandnooneshouldbe
allowedin,orallowthemall.Just2,000
outof8,000doesn’tmakesense.”FromGondartoJerusalem
EthiopianJewsJERUSALEM
TheJewswhoconfoundIsrael’slawofreturnShalomtosomeofyouY
ou canfind almost anything in Du-
bai—except old people. The migrants
who run its economy are a young bunch;
with residency tied to work, retirement
usually means a flight home. The tourists
dancing in nightclubs and lounging on
beaches tend to be young, too. But the
emirate may soon sprout some grey hairs.
In September Dubai announced a new
residence visa for over-55s. Only the well-
off need apply. Applicants must have a
comfortable nest-egg or buy a property
worth 2m dirhams ($540,000). The hope is
that old folk who might settle in Portugal or
Palm Beach will opt for the Persian Gulf in-
stead. The scheme, two years in the mak-
ing, could boost Dubai’s sputtering econ-
omy, which may contract by 11% this year.
Unlike most Gulf states, Dubai (part of
the United Arab Emirates) does not rely on
oil or gas. The black stuff accounts for just
1% of gdp. Instead it has banked on cease-
less building to fuel a service-heavy econ-
omy. The city can feel like a frenetic con-
struction site: new hotels to draw more
tourists, who create more jobs for migrant
workers, all of which means more demand
for malls and apartments.
Even before covid-19 arrived, though,
Dubai was starting to look overbuilt. The
property market is saturated: one website
lists nearly 19,000 flats for sale and another
32,000 for rent. Average sale prices have
fallen to 896 dirhams per square foot, esti-
mates ValuStrat, a consultancy. That is the
lowest level in more than a decade, 35% be-
low the ten-year peak of 1,380 dirhams in- Rental prices are dropping as well.
Some tenants in the downtown financial
hub have negotiated discounts of 20% to
25% on their contracts—even as they watch
new high-rises spring up across the street.
The pandemic has thrown the engine of
growth into reverse. Travel and tourism,
for example, have collapsed. Dubai’s air-
port has mothballed one of its two main
terminals. Passenger traffic was down 20%
in the first quarter—before most countries
went into lockdown—and further still in
the second. Hotel occupancy rates in Sep-
tember, normally more than 80%, were
just 45%. Emirates, the official air carrier,
has already laid off more than 10% of its
workforce. Layoffs will ripple across the
economy, cutting demand for everything
from private schools to happy hours.
When their economies slump, Gulf
states epitomise the proverb that no news
is good news. They are notorious for pub-
lishing indicators months or years late.
One analyst recalls using data on power
and water consumption to guess at Dubai’s
economic growth. In September, though,
the emirate offered a rare glimpse of its bal-
ance-sheet in a prospectus for a $2bn bond
issue. The document listed Dubai’s govern-
ment debt at 124bn dirhams ($34bn), less
than 30% of gdp.
But the figure omits the debt held by
government-linked entities. Though they
borrow on commercial terms, they have
the implicit backing of the state. One of the
largest, Dubai World, needed a bail-out in
2009 to avoid defaulting on $59bn in liabil-ities. This year the government has stepped
in only to help Emirates, which has re-
ceived 7.3bn dirhams in aid. Some of these
firms remain highly leveraged, though,
with big investments in property, tourism
and transport—all vulnerable to the pan-
demic. s&p, a rating agency, put Dubai’s
public debt at 148% of gdpif state-backed
firms are counted.
Pensioners could soak up some of Du-
bai’s excess capacity. But they will provide
only a temporary fix if Dubai continues to
rely on new construction to drive growth.
For years the economic model has been “If
you build it, they will come.” That mantra
may be due for retirement. 7BEIRUT
A struggling emirate hopes rich
pensioners will boost its economyDubaiOld is gold