THE NEW YORK TIMES NATIONALSATURDAY, OCTOBER 17, 2020 Y A
When NBC announced a town hall event with President Trump
that was scheduled for the same time as ABC’s town hall program with
the Democratic nominee, Joseph R. Biden Jr., Democrats were en-
raged. Celebrities spoke out, including some of NBC’s own talent, and
liberals on social media made grand plans to boycott the event in an
effort to send a message to Mr. Trump and the network.
Instead, the split screen of Mr. Trump and Mr. Biden at concurrent
town halls painted a vivid picture of the stark choices before American
voters. Mr. Biden was pressed on policy plans from climate change to
criminal justice, hammering home his core message that the Trump
administration had fumbled the coronavirus pandemic. Mr. Trump
sparred with Savannah Guthrie of NBC, the moderator, refusing to
give clear answers on his own coronavirus diagnosis and whether he
denounces the violent conspiracy theory of QAnon. In the end, the
contrast was so stark that one of Mr. Trump’s senior advisers com-
pared Mr. Biden’s town hall event to Fred Rogers of “Mister Rogers’
Neighborhood” (though she meant it as an insult). Even the Demo-
crats who were initially wary of the events learned a lesson that Mr.
Trump’s campaign team has come to know, at times painfully: Not all
airtime is necessarily helpful to the president.President and Nominee
Dance Around Loyalty
The split screen of Judge Amy
Coney Barrett’s confirmation
hearings unfolding on Capitol
Hill as Mr. Trump addressed
voters directly raised questions
for both the president and his
Supreme Court nominee about
how much they are expecting
from each other in the coming
months.
Did Mr. Trump have a litmus
test for Judge Barrett, when it
came to politically charged is-
sues like overturning Roe v.
Wade, or how she might rule in
an upcoming case that could
decide the future of the Afford-
able Care Act? Would Mr. Trump
expect Judge Barrett to rule for
him if a dispute over the Nov. 3
election comes before the Su-
preme Court? Both Mr. Trump
and Judge Barrett were asked
those questions this week, and
both claimed that there was
never a loyalty pledge — sought
or given.
“It would be totally up to her,”
Mr. Trump said on NBC on
Thursday night. “I would think
that she would be able to rule
either for me or against me. I
don’t see any conflict whatso-
ever.” Judge Barrett, for her part,
said she would not allow herself
“to be used as a pawn to decide
this election for the American
people.” But here’s what the
president has communicated.- Mr. Trump has said the Supreme
Court may decide the election
outcome. He has also said he
wants Judge Barrett confirmed
by Election Day, in part because
he assumes the results of the
election could be in dispute and
he is “counting” on the court to
“look at the ballots.” - He has been explicit about the
Affordable Care Act. Mr. Trump
has said he wants justices who
would “do the right thing” and
invalidate the health care law.
Judge Barrett said this past
week: “I’m not here on a mission
to destroy the Affordable Care
Act. I’m just here to apply the
law and adhere to the rule of
law.”- Mr. Trump has made it abun-
dantly clear he prizes loyalty. The
president never forgave his first
attorney general, Jeff Sessions,
for recusing himself from the
Russia investigation, ridiculing
him over the decision for years.
In recent weeks, he has even
been publicly critical of William
P. Barr, the current attorney
general, because the Justice
Department’s investigation of
the Obama administration found
no wrongdoing and did not bring
any criminal charges. And the
Supreme Court has not been off
limits for criticism from this
administration. Vice President
Mike Pence in August denounced
Chief Justice John G. Roberts Jr.
as a “disappointment to conser-
vatives” after he sided with the
Democratic appointees on a
series of cases.
Trump Wants Rallies.
Aides Aren’t So Sure.
President Trump’s plan from now
until Election Day is to pack in as
many rallies as physically and
monetarily possible (Air Force
One is not a cheap lift for a cam-
paign that has been struggling
financially.) But the strategy,
favored by a president whoadores adoring crowds, has some
people in his orbit questioning
whether it’s the best way to
further his re-election chances in
the final days of the race.
The preaching-to-the-con-
verted sessions in airport han-
gars across battleground states
are no longer being carried on
national television, and most of
the attention they attract is for
the images of people packed
together, most without masks on.
Some Trump campaign aides
argued that the rallies still drive
the local news in critical areas
and allow the campaign to gather
information from low-propensity
voters who they can try to turn
out at the polls. But even they
admit the rallies are not without
their downsides.- Polls show that the vast majority
of Americans think Mr. Trump
contracted the coronavirus be-
cause he didn’t take proper pre-
cautions:When the president
shows up at an airport hangar
and brags about how large the
crowd is, it seems like a warning
sign for what not to do in the
middle of a highly contagious
pandemic. - Trump’s best pitch is to broaden
his economic appeal: He doesn’t
do that at rallies, where over the
past week he has begged subur-
ban women to like him, made
wildly inflated claims about his
own achievements and floated
conspiracy theories about his
political opponents. - But it keeps him happy and busy:
Mr. Trump has pushed his cam-
paign advisers to book more
rallies, and they admit that with-
out the rallies he would probably
spend more unscheduled “execu-
tive time” watching television
and tweeting, activities that
come with their own sets of
downsides.
Harris Pauses Travel
To Send a Message
Senator Kamala Harris of Cali-
fornia, Mr. Biden’s running mate,
abruptly suspended travel this
past week after a senior staff
member tested positive for the
coronavirus. The staff member,
in addition to a flight crew mem-
ber who had also tested positive,had not been in close contact
with Ms. Harris, but the cam-
paign pulled her from events
through the weekend as a stated
precaution. The campaign said
Ms. Harris was not quarantining
and had continued to test nega-
tive for the coronavirus. So why
is she off the campaign trail?
Politics.
The Biden campaign wants to
create a contrast with the Trump
administration on all things
coronavirus. As the White House
and Mr. Trump continue to obfus-
cate on the precise details of the
president’s diagnosis, and the
gap in time between his last
negative test and his first pos-
itive one, Mr. Biden’s campaign is
trying to show voters — and the
media — that it is taking the
virus seriously. Consider this:- Dems in array: The Democratic
Party is united in its indictments
of Mr. Trump’s handling of the
virus, and its goal of expanding
health care and combating cli-
mate change; those are the
issues that unite the party’s
candidates across the country. In
Mr. Biden’s town hall event, and
in Ms. Harris’s vice-presidential
debate, they both started by
criticizing the Trump administra-
tion’s pandemic response. On
Thursday, the Democratic Na-
tional Committee paid for float-
ing billboards outside Mr.
Trump’s town hall event that
read: “Trump lied. People died.” - The White House keeps provid-
ing them opportunities:Mr.
Trump has continued to push
back against accepted mitigation
strategies such as mask wearing.
On Thursday night, Mr. Trump
repeatedly cited anecdotal evi-
dence that mask wearing did not
necessarily help prevent infec-
tion with the virus, even as his
own public health experts stress
its importance. In fighting this
battle, he has created an opening
that Mr. Biden is seeking to
exploit.
Also This Week
- In Ohio, the overwhelming
number of mail-in ballot requests
has slowed service in several
counties. In Summit County,
ballots were delayed until Oct. 10,
with the rest of the initial batch of
95,000 not mailed until Oct. 12. - In Texas this past week, hours
before early voting began in the
state, a three-judge federal panel
upheld an order by Gov. Greg
Abbott limiting counties to one
drop box apiece for ballots. The
result forced high-density cities
to shut down dozens of ballot
drop boxes they had planned to
use. - Indian-Americans are the sec-
ond largest immigrant group in
the country. Mr. Trump tried
engaging this group with a rally
in Houston last year, but Indian-
Americans are leaning toward
the Democrats. Ms. Harris has
something to do with it, but most
respondents were turned off by
Mr. Trump’s attacks on immigra-
tion and people of color.
Joseph R. Biden Jr. was pressed on policy in his town-hall event on ABC as President Trump sparred with Savannah Guthrie on NBC.RUTH FREMSON/THE NEW YORK TIMESJudge Amy Coney Barrett tried to distance herself from Presi-
dent Trump’s stated expectations of Supreme Court justices.ANNA MONEYMAKER FOR THE NEW YORK TIMESNEWS ANALYSISA Split-Screen View of America’s Big Choice
By ASTEAD W. HERNDON and ANNIE KARNIThe Week in Numbers
This was the week that Joe Biden’s lead over
President Trump settled firmly into the double
digits, according to a range of national polling
averages — including The Upshot’s calculator.
Some credible polls, including one released on
Friday by The Associated Press/NORC, put
Mr. Biden’s lead as high as 15 points.
. .....................................................................................................................................
Two New York Times/Siena College polls in the
Carolinas showed Mr. Biden edging ahead of
the president in North Carolina, 46 percent to 42
percent, while Mr. Trump held aneight-point
lead in South Carolina. Winning North
Carolina would be a huge boost for Mr. Biden,
who is polling more strongly in a number of
swing states that appear to be stronger bets.
South Carolina would be icing on the cake.
. .....................................................................................................................................
Democratic Senate candidates outpaced
Republican incumbents in fund-raising in key
races across the nation last week, including in
Maine, where Sara Gideon announced raising
$31 millionmore than Senator Susan Collins,
the Republican incumbent.
A Snapshot of Current Polling Averages
Exploring Electoral College Outcomes
Electoral votes counting only states where a candidate leads by 3 or more:
† Poll error in 2016 is calculated using averages of state polls conducted within three
weeks of Election Day.
Our poll averages include all polls collected by FiveThirtyEight. The estimates adjust for a variety
of factors, including whether a poll represents likely voters, whether other polls have shifted
since a poll was conducted, and whether a pollster has leaned toward one candidate in a state
or nationwide. Polls are weighted by recency, sample size, and by whether they’re conducted by
a firm with a track record of success. Source for polls: FiveThirtyEight polling database.
POLLING LEADERIF POLLS ARE AS WRONG
AS THEY WERE IN...
2016 2012United States +10 Biden +7 +
New Hampshire +11 Biden +8 +
Minnesota +10 Biden +2 +
Wisconsin +9 Biden +1 +
Michigan +9 Biden +4 +
Pennsylvania +8 Biden +3 +
Nebraska 2* +7 Biden +9 +
Nevada +7 Biden +9 +
Maine 2* +5 Biden +6 +
Arizona +5 Biden +3 +
Florida +4 Biden +1 +
North Carolina +3 Biden +2 +
Iowa +2 Biden +5 +
Georgia +2 Biden <1 +
Ohio <1 Biden +6 +
Te x a s +2 Trump +4 +
- In Maine and Nebraska, two electoral votes are apportioned to the winner of the state
popular vote, and the rest of the electoral votes are given to the winner of the popular vote in
each congressional district. (Maine has two congressional districts, and Nebraska has three.)
THE NEW YORK TIMESEstimates based on poll averages on Friday at 5:24 p.m. Eastern. Figures are rounded.
335 Biden 125 TrumpElectoral votes if polling leads translate perfectly to results (they won’t):
375 Biden 163 TrumpElectoral votes if state polls are as wrong as they were in 2016†:
319 Biden 219 TrumpState of the Race
A daily newsletter about the people, issues and ideas shaping our
political world. Sign up at nytimes.com/newslettersNEWSLETTER:ON POLITICS Isabella Grullón Paz and Gio-
vanni Russonello contributed
reporting.Election